scholarly journals Forecast of Economic Growth in Armenia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anahit Mkrtchyan ◽  
Gevorg Petrosyan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Customer Service ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Warning Sign ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments

The article presents the development of methods for forecasting economic growth. Since the 1950s, researchers have paid more attention to economic growth research. Many analysts and economists have focused on methods of forecasting economic growth and have tried to find the principal methods that influenced it. In the 2000s, economists found out that more than 500 exogenous or indigenous factors affect economic growth. Every national economy has its specifications which makes the forecast of its economic growth uncorrelated with the others. Some of them are heavily affected by oil and gas production, the others – by financial or customer service and a dozen of national economies are affected by the production in agriculture [3]. The economy of Armenia is not an exception. The author showed dynamics of Armenian economic growth, by which factors it has been affected, brought some comparisons with the region's countries. The authors used various econometric models to predict economic growth. The tiniest model, which the author constructed based on the ordinary least squares method, showed that Armenia's economic growth is mainly affected by four factors: Foreign Direct Investments, exports, national savings, and the amount of provided loans in Armenia. The quality of the model was 98% which is very high. The most considerable affection have foreign direct investments (FDI). If the FDI increases by 1 billion dollars, gross domestic product (GDP) will rise by 4.52 billion dollars, 36% of Armenia's GDP in 2019. The affection of Exports is not low either. If the amount of Exports increases by 1 billion dollars, that would raise gross domestic product (GDP) by 1.58 billion dollars which is 13.6% of Armenia's GDP in 2019. The author also tried to predict the economic growth of Armenia for ten years, from 2020-2029. The author used both ARIMA and SARIMA models to forecast economic growth. The results were interesting because they showed the economic crisis of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the need for change in fiscal and monetary policies. It can be a warning sign to the ministry of Finances, Central Bank of Armenia, to consider critical changes in these policies.

Characteristics of visitor expenditure in Macao and their impact on its economic growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 218-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wang Jingwen ◽  
Liang Mingzhu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Consumer Group ◽  
Tourism Experience ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares Method ◽  
Statistical Indicators ◽  
Consumption Habits

This article assesses the economic impact of visitor expenditure in Macao and the impacts of major expense types to the visitor expenditure. As consumption habits are changing gradually, which can be reflected in the consumption habits of the tourists, we concentrate on the characteristics of visitor expenditure to analyze the factors that drive up the consumption. This article analyzes the relative statistical indicators from 2010 to 2016 in Macao using the ordinary least squares method. According to empirical analysis of this study, 1 Macanese Patacas (MOP) of visitor expenditure can create 7.896 MOP in additional gross domestic product (GDP) in Macao. Moreover, “transportation” and “shopping” present obvious equal status on the pulling function to the visitor expenditure, which indicates that a better transportation system can increase more consumption opportunities. The items of “shopping” and “cosmetics and perfume” have a distinctively high pulling function to the visitor expenditure. This indicates that the power of female consumer group should be emphasized. Compared with other commodities, we observed the obvious pulling function of “local food products,” which shows that the culture-based tourism experience will be helpful to promote the visitor expenditure. In discussing the results, relevant suggestions for developing the diversified tourism in Macao are presented in the article.

scholarly journals Economic Growth at the Expense of Environmental Degradation: Evidence from the Philippines

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 269-287
Author(s):  
Coleen Joyce De Robles ◽  
Jose Rafael De Leon ◽  
Carlos Manapat
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Environmental Laws ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Study Support

This study presents an empirical analysis of the impacts of three macroeconomic variables namely, Gross Domestic Product, Foreign Direct Investment, and Urban Population on the emissions of CO2 in the Philippines from the period of 1970 to 2018. The results reveal that Gross Domestic Product and Foreign Direct Investments exhibit a statistically significant relationship with CO2 emissions. The findings of this study suggest that the Philippines’ reliance on high-polluting industries as drivers of economic growth will only worsen its environmental quality. Moreover, its weak environmental laws provide foreign investors the opportunity to exploit the environment in exchange for FDI inflows to the country. Furthermore, the results of this study support the scale effect in the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, as well as the Pollution Haven Hypothesis.

Factors Affecting Foreign Direct Investment: The Afghanistan Case

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Eryigit ◽  
Abdul Qayum Shafaq
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

This study examined the factors affecting foreign direct investments (FDI) for the case of Afghanistan. Generally, the literature has focused on the factors affecting direct investments towards developing and underdeveloped countries. The primary purpose of this study is to identify the factors affecting FDI inflow to Afghanistan. Different from previous studies, this study examined the effects of the following factors; globalization indices, gross domestic product, export volume, import volume, and exchange rate (USD/AFN) of Afghani. The factors were determined based on a review of the literature. Regarding the interaction across variables, three different regression models were tested to examine the effects of those factors on FDI inflows to Afghanistan. Ordinary Least Squares estimation was employed. According to the results of the integrated model (the model that covers all exploratory variables), globalization has a statistically significant positive effect on FDI, whereas the gross domestic product (GDP) has a statistically significant negative effect on FDI. When we test the effect of GDP and exchange rate (EXC) jointly on FDI, we find the statistically significant positive effect of those variables on FDI. The results of this study recommend the economy politicians in Afghanistan implement exchange rate policies that promote the FDI and to increase the inflowing of FDI into the country.

The Effects of Population Aging and Life Expectancy on Economic Growth

2021 ◽  
pp. 97-118
Author(s):  
Mustafa Kiziltan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Generalized Least Squares ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Population Structures

This study examines the effects of gross saving rates, gross capital formation, population aging, and life expectancy on income growth between 1985 and 2018 for selected emerging market and middle-income economies. The estimates by feasible generalized least squares (FGLS), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), canonical cointegrating regressions (CCR), and Driscoll-Kraay methods show the impact of population aging on income growth is positive. However, life expectancy gives positive results for gross domestic product per capita growth and negative results for gross domestic product growth. The results confirm that there is still an increasing population for emerging economies in general. In this respect, they also point to the neutral view approach for these countries. This situation highlights the importance of considering the effects of population aging on sustainable economic growth in emerging countries. For this reason, decision makers in these economies must monitor population structures closely and carefully.

Factors Affecting Foreign Direct Investment: The Afghanistan Case

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Eryigit ◽  
Abdul Qayum Shafaq
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

This study examined the factors affecting foreign direct investments (FDI) for the case of Afghanistan. Generally, the literature has focused on the factors affecting direct investments towards developing and underdeveloped countries. The primary purpose of this study is to identify the factors affecting FDI inflow to Afghanistan. Different from previous studies, this study examined the effects of the following factors; globalization indices, gross domestic product, export volume, import volume, and exchange rate (USD/AFN) of Afghani. The factors were determined based on a review of the literature. Regarding the interaction across variables, three different regression models were tested to examine the effects of those factors on FDI inflows to Afghanistan. Ordinary Least Squares estimation was employed. According to the results of the integrated model (the model that covers all exploratory variables), globalization has a statistically significant positive effect on FDI, whereas the gross domestic product (GDP) has a statistically significant negative effect on FDI. When we test the effect of GDP and exchange rate (EXC) jointly on FDI, we find the statistically significant positive effect of those variables on FDI. The results of this study recommend the economy politicians in Afghanistan implement exchange rate policies that promote the FDI and to increase the inflowing of FDI into the country.

scholarly journals The Effect of Regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Development Expenditure on Employment in the District Luwu

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-89
Author(s):  
I Ketut Patra ◽  
Sri Wahyuny
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Social Economy ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Regional Budget ◽  
Development Expenditure

This study aims to assess the economic growth and the factors that influence the economic growth in the local government system by increasing the production of goods and services measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the policy of government expenditure (development) that can directly drive growth to finance economic development in the field of social economy and the public, both the development of physical and non-physical. This study uses multiple regression analysis by the least squares method (Method of Ordinary Least Square) OLS. These results indicate that the budget Revenue Expenditure Luwu, particularly in development spending has been a major contribution to regional development Luwu. With increasing economic growth and rising Luwu regency Regional Budget Builders Luwu district each year, then it will affect the employment opportunities for local people Luwu.

Trends of Private Consumption in the Restructuring of China’s Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 07 (04) ◽  
pp. 52-64
Author(s):  
Chien-Hsun CHEN
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Decisive Role ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Labour Income ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
Labour Share ◽  
China’S Economy

The benefits deriving from rapid economic growth have chiefly accrued to capital returns. Consequently, the decline in the share of Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) accounted for by labour income has been most pronounced. To sustain growth, China will have to ensure robust consumption. Increasing the labour share in GDP and hence promoting domestic consumption will play a decisive role in rebalancing China’s economy.

The impacts of income inequality on the gross domestic product under direct taxation: evidence from emerging market economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmet Eren Yıldırım ◽  
Mete Dibo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Emerging Market Economies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Economies ◽  
Direct Taxation

PurposeThis study analyzes the impacts of income inequality after direct taxation on the gross domestic product as a fiscal policy tool in the development process.Design/methodology/approachThe model of the study is based on Munielo-Gallo and Roca-Sagales (2013), which examined the fiscal policy, income inequality and economic growth simultaneously. The study uses two models to analyze the relationship between income inequality and gross domestic production under direct taxation by employing autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for selected emerging market economies.FindingEmpirical results reveal a negative long-run relationship between variables in some countries in line with the literature, despite a positive relationship in others. Moreover, the results exhibit the negative impact of income inequality after direct taxation on the gross domestic product decreases.Originality/valueResults of the study highlight the importance of direct taxation on income inequality concerning the reflects on economic growth. It suggests that when the income distribution is fairer, it may positively affect the gross domestic product. The study provides a new perspective to the related literature by investigating the role of income inequality under direct taxation for gross domestic product.

Financial Deepening, Financial Intermediation and Nigerian Economic Growth: Time Variant Analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 60-73
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Long Run

This study examines financial deepening, financial intermediation and Nigerian economic growth. The main purpose is to examine the relationship between financial deepening and Nigerian economic growth while the specific objectives are to examine the impact of interest rate, capital market development, rational savings, credit to private sector and broad money supply on the growth of Nigerian. Secondary data of the variables were sourced from the publications of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 1981-2017. Nigerian Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) was used as dependent variable while Broad money supply (M2), Credit to Private Sector (CPS), National Savings (NS), Capital Market Capitalization (CAMP) and Interest Rate (INTR) was used as independent variables. Multiple regressions with E-view statistical package were used as data analysis techniques. Cointegration test, Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test, Granger causality test was used to determine the relationship between the variable in the long-run and short-run. R2, F – statistics and β Coefficients were used to determine the extent to which the independent variable affects the dependent variable. It was found from the regression result that Broad Money Supply, credit to private sector have position effect on the growth of Nigerian Real Gross Domestic Product while National Savings, Capitalization and Interest Rate on Nigeria Real Gross Domestic Product. The co-integration test revealed presence of long-run relationship among the variables, the stationary test indicated stationarity of the variables at level. The Granger Causality Test found bi – variant relationship from the dependent to the independent and from the independent to the dependent variables. The regression summary found 99.0% explained variation, 560.5031, F – statistics and probability of 0.00000. From the above, the study concludes that financial deepening has significant relationships with Nigerian economic growth. We recommend that government and the financial sector operators should make policies that will further deepen the functions of the financial system to enhance Nigerian economic growth.

scholarly journals KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
International Monetary Fund ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
The Third ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Market Outlook ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
The International Monetary Fund

Total global oil demand is expected to increase year-on-year (YoY) by 4.2 million barrels per day (MMb/d) in 2021 and further grow by 3.5 MMb/d in 2022, returning to 2019 levels by the third quarter (Q3) 2022. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts economic growth of around 5.4% in 2021, compared with a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 of -4.4%. However, KOMO estimates a forecast more in line with the OECD’s outlook for growth (4.2%), which presumes that GDP levels will only reach 2019 levels by the end of 2021.

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