scholarly journals KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
International Monetary Fund ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
The Third ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Market Outlook ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
The International Monetary Fund

Total global oil demand is expected to increase year-on-year (YoY) by 4.2 million barrels per day (MMb/d) in 2021 and further grow by 3.5 MMb/d in 2022, returning to 2019 levels by the third quarter (Q3) 2022. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts economic growth of around 5.4% in 2021, compared with a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 of -4.4%. However, KOMO estimates a forecast more in line with the OECD’s outlook for growth (4.2%), which presumes that GDP levels will only reach 2019 levels by the end of 2021.

Financial Deepening, Financial Intermediation and Nigerian Economic Growth: Time Variant Analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 60-73
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Long Run

This study examines financial deepening, financial intermediation and Nigerian economic growth. The main purpose is to examine the relationship between financial deepening and Nigerian economic growth while the specific objectives are to examine the impact of interest rate, capital market development, rational savings, credit to private sector and broad money supply on the growth of Nigerian. Secondary data of the variables were sourced from the publications of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 1981-2017. Nigerian Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) was used as dependent variable while Broad money supply (M2), Credit to Private Sector (CPS), National Savings (NS), Capital Market Capitalization (CAMP) and Interest Rate (INTR) was used as independent variables. Multiple regressions with E-view statistical package were used as data analysis techniques. Cointegration test, Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test, Granger causality test was used to determine the relationship between the variable in the long-run and short-run. R2, F – statistics and β Coefficients were used to determine the extent to which the independent variable affects the dependent variable. It was found from the regression result that Broad Money Supply, credit to private sector have position effect on the growth of Nigerian Real Gross Domestic Product while National Savings, Capitalization and Interest Rate on Nigeria Real Gross Domestic Product. The co-integration test revealed presence of long-run relationship among the variables, the stationary test indicated stationarity of the variables at level. The Granger Causality Test found bi – variant relationship from the dependent to the independent and from the independent to the dependent variables. The regression summary found 99.0% explained variation, 560.5031, F – statistics and probability of 0.00000. From the above, the study concludes that financial deepening has significant relationships with Nigerian economic growth. We recommend that government and the financial sector operators should make policies that will further deepen the functions of the financial system to enhance Nigerian economic growth.

scholarly journals Impact of Domestic Industrial Output on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-67
Author(s):  
Kazeem Fasoye ◽  
Abiodun Sunday Olayiwola ◽  
Kehinde Elizabeth Joseph
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Practical Implication ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Domestic Production ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Domestic Savings

Purpose: This paper examined the potential of domestic industrial output on economic growth in Nigeria. Approach/ Methodology/ Design: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model procedure was employed for data analysis. Findings: The results revealed that the contribution of the domestic industrial output to economic growth was appalling which was necessitated by the worrisome image of “Made-in-Nigeria” goods. It was also showed that the results that domestic industrial output and domestic savings have positive relationships with real gross domestic product (RGDP) in the long run. This implies that a rise in the level of each of domestic output and domestic savings necessitated an increase in real gross domestic product (RGDP). Practical Implication: The implication presented in this study is related to the concerned authorities. The results indicate the need for diverse domestic production in order to achieve a healthy competition in the industrial sector in the country. Originality/Value: The study innovates by employing various statistical tools for exploring the effect of domestic industrial output on economic growth. The significant contribution of this study is in identifying that domestic production in Nigeria has been lagged behind in terms of output performance in the economy.

Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth: The Scenario of the MINT Economies

Economy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-48
Author(s):  
Innocent U Duru
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

This study investigated the impact of trade liberalization on economic growth for Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey from 1986 to 2020. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds approach to cointegration and Toda and Yamamoto causality test were utilized for this study. The long-run results revealed that there is no relationship between trade liberalization and real gross domestic product per capita except for Mexico and in this situation, the significance level was at 10%. The results of the causality test showed that no causality was detected between real gross domestic product per capita and trade liberalization for Mexico and Indonesia. A bidirectional causality between real gross domestic product per capita and trade liberalization was found for Nigeria whereas a unidirectional causality from trade liberalization to real gross domestic product per capita was revealed for Turkey. The no causality results for Mexico and Indonesia means that the policy objectives of trade liberalization and economic growth can be pursued independently in both economies. In addition, the bidirectional causality detected for Nigeria suggests that the policy objectives of trade liberalization and economic growth can be pursued together in Nigeria. Furthermore, the unidirectional causality from trade liberalization to real gross domestic product per capita found for Turkey implies that she employs trade liberalization policies effectively for objectives of economic growth, thus trade liberalization causes economic growth.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Impacts of Non-Oil Exports on Economic Growth in Nigeria Between 1986-2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 39-64
Author(s):  
Chinyere F.E. ◽  
Samuel N.N. ◽  
Nkama O.N. ◽  
Chinwoke R.E.
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Capacity Utilization ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
The Government

Non-oil exports have been seen to be very vital in economic growth and development, especially for developing economics. Despite the poor contribution of non-oil exports to economic growth in Nigeria, this study is inspired by the inconsistencies in empirical findings regarding the connection and effect of non-oil exports on the economy. The objective of the study was to determine the effect of non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria. An ex-post facto research design was adopted. The time frame of thirty three (33) years, from 1986 to 2018 was adopted to allow for a large number of observations which will improve the robustness of the results. The data was obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin of 2017. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimation technique was applied in guesstimating the models. E – views 9.0 was the econometric software used for the analysis. The result revealed that non-oil exports have no significant effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product, agricultural contribution to real gross domestic product is not significantly affected by exports of non-oil products even though there is evidence of a positive but insignificant correlation between them. Manufacturing capacity utilization is not significantly influenced by variation in Nigeria’s non-oil exports. Non-oil exports are positively associated with manufacturing capacity utilization. Economic growth in Nigeria has not been significantly affected by non-oil exports despite the various non-oil promotion strategies by the government. We recommend that cost and access to financial services for non-oil exporters be moderate or relaxed.

scholarly journals Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling of the Effects of Some Macroeconomic Variables on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monday Osagie Adenomon ◽  
Rotimi Olalekan Ojo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

Research background: Relationship between inflation rate, unemployment rate, interest rate and real gross domestic product per capita in Nigeria. However, there seems to be a short-run or long-run relationship among the macroeconomic variables.Purpose: This study investigated the impact of the inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate on real gross domestic product per capita (RGDPPC) (proxy for economic growth) and proffered recommendations towards enhancing economic growth and to reduce the distasteful effects of inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate in Nigeria in this present time economic challenges.Research methodology: This study applied a linear dynamic model Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling technique to analyze the short-run dynamics and long-run relationship of the economic growth in Nigeria over the sample period between 1984 and 2017 using annual secondary data extracted from World Bank Development Indicators Report (last updated January 2019).Results: The empirical results showed that there was long-run relationship between inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate on real gross domestic product per capita (proxy for economic growth) in Nigeria. The result further revealed that only unemployment rate had a significant positive impact on real gross domestic product per capita in the long-run and inflation rate had a significant negative impact on real gross domestic product per capita in the short-run.Novelty: Therefore, the study concluded that unemployment rate and inflation rate proved to have significant impacts on economic growth in the long-run and short-run respectively. Formulation of policies to reduce unemployment through the adoption of labour concentrated technique of production, entrepreneurship development and policy to keep the inflation rate at single digit.

scholarly journals Direct and Reverse Causation of External Debt, Foreign Investment and Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1980-2017

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Nwachukwu Ngozi Patricia ◽  
Willy Ugwuanyi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Bound Test

This study examined the direct and reverse relationship among external debt, foreign investment and economic growth in Nigeria, 1980-2017. The study is ex-post facto in design and adopted the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, Granger causality test, bound co-integration test and error correction representations. It was found that external debt and exchange rate were significant functions of Real Gross Domestic Product. Foreign Direct Investment and its lag were insignificant functions of real gross domestic product. The bound test following the ARDL framework, showed evidence in favor of co-integration among the variables regardless their stationarity properties. The rightly signed error correction term of 30.4% gives an indication that it takes about 3.28 years to restore the long-run equilibrium state on the real gross domestic product should there be any shock from the explanatory variables. It is therefore recommended among others that government should create an enabling environment that will attract foreign investment given the catalytic role it plays on economic growth in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Introduction and Overview

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Naoto Jinji ◽  
Xingyuan Zhang ◽  
Shoji Haruna
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
International Monetary Fund ◽  
World Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
The World

AbstractThe world economy was severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. It was estimated that the annual growth in the world’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 would be $$-3.3$$ - 3.3 % (International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2021). World trade simultaneously contracted sharply.

scholarly journals Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling of the Effects of Some Macroeconomic Variables on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Monday Osagie Adenomon ◽  
Rotimi Olalekan Ojo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

Abstract Research background: The relationship between inflation rate, unemployment rate, interest rate and real gross domestic product per capita in Nigeria. However, there seems to be a short-run or long-run relationship among the macroeconomic variables. Purpose: This study investigated the long and short run impacts of the inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate on real gross domestic product per capita (RGDPPC) (proxy for economic growth). Research methodology: This study applied a linear dynamic model Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling technique to analyze the short-run dynamics and long-run relationship of economic growth in Nigeria over the sample period between 1984 and 2017 using annual secondary data extracted from the World Bank Development Indicators Report. Results: The empirical results showed that there was a long-run relationship between the inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate on real gross domestic product per capita (proxy for economic growth) in Nigeria. The results further revealed that only the unemployment rate had a significant positive impact on real gross domestic product per capita in the long-run and the inflation rate had a significant negative impact on real gross domestic product per capita in the short-run. Novelty: Therefore, the study concluded that the unemployment rate and inflation rate proved to have significant impacts on economic growth in the long-run and short-run respectively. The formulation of policies to reduce unemployment through the adoption of a labour concentrated technique of production, entrepreneurship development and policy to keep the inflation rate a single digit.

scholarly journals Financial Determinants of Economic Growth of Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zaib-un- Nisa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

The paper attempts to investigate the relationship between savings and Economic growth of Pakistan by using the time series data from 1972 to 2015. For empirical analysis, ordinary least square method is used. The analysis is made in two parts. In the first part; descriptive statistics and correlation matrix are described. In second part, multivariate analysis explains how saving of Pakistan is determined by economic growth. This study concludes that the employed labor force, gross fixed capital formation and exchange rate have positive and significant influence on real gross domestic product. Foreign direct investment and gross domestic savings have negative but insignificant impact on real gross domestic product. Keeping in view the role of savings and economic growth in Pakistan. It is recommended that government should provide enabling environment and fiscal incentives for enhancing the foreign direct investment. This will increase the gross domestic product in the country. For this purpose, the industrial and agricultural sectors of the country must be stable. Moreover, there is a need of creating an investment friendly business environment in Pakistan.

scholarly journals Agricultural Output, Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Gregory-Hansen Cointegration Test with Structural Breaks

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (41) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Ali Salisu ◽  
Haladu Adahama Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Effect

The agricultural sector at large plays a significant role in augmenting economic growth, serves as a source of income to the people, provides food to the teeming population, serves as a source of raw materials to the industries and provides foreign exchange to the country, etc. The current study investigates the short-run and long-run relationship among agricultural output, Government expenditure, and Economic growth in Nigeria using annual time series data from 1985 to 2019. The Zivot-Andrew unit root test indicates that gross domestic product, agricultural output, and exchange rate are stationary at first difference while government expenditure is stationary at level. The Gregory-Hansen test with structural break has confirmed the existence of a cointegration relationship among the variables employed. The Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model with break indicates that, in the short-run agricultural output has a negative and statistically insignificant effect on real gross domestic product Nigeria, government expenditure has a positive and statistically significant effect on real gross domestic product in Nigeria, and the exchange rate has a positive and statistically significant effect on real gross domestic product in Nigeria. The break-point coefficient has positive and statistically significant. The long-run result shows that agricultural output has a positive effect on the real gross domestic product in Nigeria, government expenditure has a positive effect on real gross domestic product in Nigeria, and the exchange rate has positive effects on the real gross domestic product in Nigeria. The break coefficient shows positive and statistically significant. The study recommends that the Nigerian government should reduce the lending rate on agriculture and provide incentives to the farmers, this will encourage farmers to borrow and consequently, agricultural output will increase and the Nigerian government should increase its expenditure on agriculture to boost the sector and achieve higher economic growth.

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