BALANÇO HÍDRICO CLIMATOLÓGICO PARA ITAJUBÁ-MG: CENÁRIO ATUAL E PROJEÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS

Revista Brasileira de Climatologia ◽

10.5380/abclima.v26i0.70387 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 26 ◽

Author(s):

Alexandre Magalhães de Morais Ramos Alves ◽

Fabrina Bolzan Martins ◽

Michelle Simões Reboita

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Minas Gerais ◽

Representative Concentration Pathway ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Rcp 8.5

Projeções climáticas ao longo do século XXI têm indicado aumento da temperatura do ar, e irregularidades na precipitação no Estado de Minas Gerais (MG), os quais afetarão a evapotranspiração e, consequentemente, o balanço hídrico. Dessa forma, o objetivo desse trabalho foi verificar o impacto das mudanças climáticas no balanço hídrico climatológico (BHC) no município de Itajubá no período de 2021 a 2099 considerando o cenário de emissão Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 do Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Neste estudo, foram utilizadas projeções do modelo climático regional RegCM4 dirigido pelas saídas do modelo global HadGEM2-ES. O BHC foi calculado para o clima presente (1979 – 2005), futuro próximo (2021 – 2049) e futuro distante (2071 – 2099), considerando o método de Thornthwaite e Mather simplificado, em que considera como dado de entrada a climatologia mensal da temperatura média do ar e da precipitação. Projeta-se, no final do século XXI, um aumento de aproximadamente 5ºC na temperatura média do ar para Itajubá, além de um padrão heterogêneo de precipitação, com projeções de aumento nos meses de primavera e verão e redução nos meses de outono e inverno. Para o BHC é projetado aumento gradual na evapotranspiração real, chegando a 86 mm mês-1 nos meses de verão, e alteração na deficiência (DEF) e excedente hídrico (EXC). De maneira geral, é projetado um aumento da DEF e EXC nos meses de outono, inverno e verão, respectivamente. Tais alterações podem acarretar prejuízos para os principais cultivos de Itajubá, como o milho, a batata, o feijão e o café.

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Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽

10.3390/w12113046 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (11) ◽

pp. 3046

Author(s):

Gashaw Gismu Chakilu ◽

Szegedi Sándor ◽

Túri Zoltán

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Stream Flow ◽

Rainfall Amount ◽

Representative Concentration Pathway ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Nile Basin ◽

Blue Nile ◽

Blue Nile Basin ◽

Gumara Watershed ◽

Rcp 8.5

Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrological dynamics of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. The understanding of the change in climate and its impact on water resource is of paramount importance to sustainable water resources management. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which the climate is being changed and its impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future climatic data of the study area. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for simulation of the future stream flow of the watershed. Results showed that the average temperature will be increasing by 0.84 °C, 2.6 °C, and 4.1 °C in the end of this century under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The change in monthly rainfall amount showed a fluctuating trend in all scenarios but the overall annual rainfall amount is projected to increase by 8.6%, 5.2%, and 7.3% in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively. The change in stream flow of Gumara watershed under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios showed increasing trend in monthly average values in some months and years, but a decreasing trend was also observed in some years of the studied period. Overall, this study revealed that, due to climate change, the stream flow of the watershed is found to be increasing by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67%under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

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Assessment of the impacts of climate change on maize production in the Wami Ruvu basin of Tanzania

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2016.055 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 142-164 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Philbert Luhunga ◽

Ladslaus Chang'a ◽

George Djolov

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Lower Altitude ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Maize Yields ◽

The Impact ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessment reports confirm that climate change will hit developing countries the hardest. Adaption is on the agenda of many countries around the world. However, before devising adaption strategies, it is crucial to assess and understand the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. In this study, the impact of climate change on rain-fed maize (Zea mays) production in the Wami-Ruvu basin of Tanzania was evaluated using the Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer. The model was fed with daily minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall and solar radiation for current climate conditions (1971–2000) as well as future climate projections (2010–2099) for two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These data were derived from three high-resolution regional climate models, used in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program. Results showed that due to climate change future maize yields over the Wami-Ruvu basin will slightly increase relative to the baseline during the current century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. However, maize yields will decline in the mid and end centuries. The spatial distribution showed that high decline in maize yields are projected over lower altitude regions due to projected increase in temperatures in those areas.

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Vulnerabilidade da mesorregião Norte de Minas Gerais face às mudanças climáticas \ The vulnerability of the Northern Minas Gerais mesoregion in the face of climate change

Caderno de Geografia ◽

10.5752/p.2318-2962.2019v29n56p134 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 29 (56) ◽

pp. 134 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Letícia Oliveira Freitas ◽

Tomás Calheiros ◽

Ruibran Januário dos Reis

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Minas Gerais ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

Medium Term ◽

Representative Concentration Pathways ◽

Industrial Sectors ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Climate Downscaling

As mudanças climáticas já são realidade e os relatórios do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) deixam claro que mudanças aceleradas vêm sendo observadas após a revolução industrial, em função de atividades antropogênicas. Variações climáticas significativas podem mudar as características físicas atuais, impor restrições de ocupações e impactar os setores ambiental, social e econômico. Com clima quente e seco, a mesorregião Norte de Minas Gerais se mostra frágil às mudanças climáticas. Importantes atividades econômicas como agricultura, pecuária, agroindústrias e usinas hidrelétricas estão relacionadas às condições climáticas. A ocupação por populações com perfil socioeconômico limitado coloca a mesorregião em situação de vulnerabilidade. Neste estudo são mostradas as projeções futuras de temperatura e precipitação, considerando um Modelo Climático Regional forçado por dois diferentes Modelos Climáticos Globais fornecidos pelo Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), para médio prazo (2041-2070) e longo prazo (2071-2100) em dois cenários climáticos Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), assumindo maiores (RCP 8.5) ou menores (RCP 4.5) emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa (GEE). Os modelos projetam aumento da temperatura em até 4ºC a médio prazo e até 5ºC a longo prazo, sendo mais intenso na primavera. Os modelos estimam secas no outono e inverno, chuvas de até 1000mm no verão e entre 400 e 800mm na primavera, com considerável variação espacial. Os efeitos dessas alterações são potenciais para atingirem os setores agropecuário, energético e industrial, a qualidade de vida e saúde das populações e a economia em nível regional. A implementação de medidas de mitigação e adaptação ao clima são desafiantes para populações com economias pouco desenvolvidas, como as do Norte de Minas.Palavras–chave: Mudanças climáticas. Modelos climáticos regionais. Temperatura e precipitação. Vulnerabilidade. Mesorregião Norte de Minas Gerais.Climate change is already a reality, and the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) make it clear that accelerated changes have been observed following the industrial revolution as a result of anthropogenic activities. Significant climatic variations can change current physical characteristics, impose technical constraints, and impact the environmental, social, and economic sectors. With a hot and dry climate, the northern mesoregion of Minas Gerais is fragile to climate change. Principal economic activities such as agriculture, livestock, agribusiness and hydroelectric plants are related to climatic conditions. The occupation by populations with a limited socioeconomic profile places the mesoregion in a situation of vulnerability. In this study the future projections of temperature and precipitation are shown, considering a Regional Climatic Model forced by two different Global Climate Models provided by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), medium term (2041-2070) and long term (2071-2100 ) in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climatic scenarios, assuming larger (RCP 8.5) or lower (RCP 4.5) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The models project a temperature increase of up to 4ºC in the medium term and up to 5ºC in the long term, being more intense in the spring. The models estimate droughts in autumn and winter, rainfall up to 1000mm in summer and between 400 and 800mm in spring, with considerable spatial variation. The effects of these changes are potential to reach the agricultural, energy and industrial sectors, the quality of life and health of populations and the economy at the regional level. The implementation of climate mitigation and adaptation measures is challenging for populations with poor economies, such as those in Northern Minas.

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Social, Environmental, and Health Vulnerability to Climate Change: The Case of the Municipalities of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Journal of Environmental and Public Health ◽

10.1155/2017/2821343 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 2017 ◽

pp. 1-8 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Ana Flávia Quintão ◽

Isabela Brito ◽

Frederico Oliveira ◽

Ana Paula Madureira ◽

Ulisses Confalonieri

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Composite Index ◽

Minas Gerais ◽

Southeastern Brazil ◽

Human Vulnerability ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Health Vulnerability ◽

Climatic Scenarios ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Social Environmental

Vulnerability to climate change is a complex and dynamic phenomenon involving both social and physical/environmental aspects. It is presented as a method for the quantification of the vulnerability of all municipalities of Minas Gerais, a state in southeastern Brazil. It is based on the aggregation of different kinds of environmental, climatic, social, institutional, and epidemiological variables, to form a composite index. This was named “Index of Human Vulnerability” and was calculated using a software (SisVuClima®) specifically developed for this purpose. Social, environmental, and health data were combined with the climatic scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, downscaled from ETA-HadGEM2-ES for each municipality. The Index of Human Vulnerability associated with the RCP 8.5 has shown a higher vulnerability for municipalities in the southern and eastern parts of the state of Minas Gerais.

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Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1716222114 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 114 (48) ◽

pp. 12681-12684 ◽

Cited By ~ 156

Author(s):

Kerry Emanuel

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

20Th Century ◽

Climate Models ◽

The State ◽

Representative Concentration Pathway ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Late 20Th Century ◽

Large Numbers ◽

Annual Probability

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey’s magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981–2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081–2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century.

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Global evidence of constraints and limits to human adaptation

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-021-01808-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Adelle Thomas ◽

Emily Theokritoff ◽

Alexandra Lesnikowski ◽

Diana Reckien ◽

Kripa Jagannathan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Systematic Review ◽

Behavioral Adaptation ◽

Human Adaptation ◽

Small Islands ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Natural Systems ◽

Adaptation Response ◽

Cultural Constraints ◽

Global Evidence

AbstractConstraints and limits to adaptation are critical to understanding the extent to which human and natural systems can successfully adapt to climate change. We conduct a systematic review of 1,682 academic studies on human adaptation responses to identify patterns in constraints and limits to adaptation for different regions, sectors, hazards, adaptation response types, and actors. Using definitions of constraints and limits provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we find that most literature identifies constraints to adaptation but that there is limited literature focused on limits to adaptation. Central and South America and Small Islands generally report greater constraints and both hard and soft limits to adaptation. Technological, infrastructural, and ecosystem-based adaptation suggest more evidence of constraints and hard limits than other types of responses. Individuals and households face economic and socio-cultural constraints which also inhibit behavioral adaptation responses and may lead to limits. Finance, governance, institutional, and policy constraints are most prevalent globally. These findings provide early signposts for boundaries of human adaptation and are of high relevance for guiding proactive adaptation financing and governance from local to global scales.

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Effect of Temperature on Sowing Dates of Wheat under Arid and Semi-Arid Climatic Regions and Impact Quantification of Climate Change through Mechanistic Modeling with Evidence from Field

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12070927 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (7) ◽

pp. 927

Author(s):

Jamshad Hussain ◽

Tasneem Khaliq ◽

Muhammad Habib ur Rahman ◽

Asmat Ullah ◽

Ishfaq Ahmed ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Grain Yield ◽

Arid Region ◽

Field Experiments ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Seasonal Temperature ◽

Sowing Dates ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Semi Arid Region ◽

Semi Arid

Rising temperature from climate change is the most threatening factor worldwide for crop production. Sustainable wheat production is a challenge due to climate change and variability, which is ultimately a serious threat to food security in Pakistan. A series of field experiments were conducted during seasons 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 in the semi-arid (Faisalabad) and arid (Layyah) regions of Punjab-Pakistan. Three spring wheat genotypes were evaluated under eleven sowing dates from 16 October to 16 March, with an interval of 14–16 days in the two regions. Data for the model calibration and evaluation were collected from field experiments following the standard procedures and protocols. The grain yield under future climate scenarios was simulated by using a well-calibrated CERES-wheat model included in DSSAT v4.7. Future (2051–2100) and baseline (1980–2015) climatic data were simulated using 29 global circulation models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. These GCMs were distributed among five quadrants of climatic conditions (Hot/Wet, Hot/Dry, Cool/Dry, Cool/Wet, and Middle) by a stretched distribution approach based on temperature and rainfall change. A maximum of ten GCMs predicted the chances of Middle climatic conditions during the second half of the century (2051–2100). The average temperature during the wheat season in a semi-arid region and arid region would increase by 3.52 °C and 3.84 °C, respectively, under Middle climatic conditions using the RCP 8.5 scenario during the second half-century. The simulated grain yield was reduced by 23.5% in the semi-arid region and 35.45% in the arid region under Middle climatic conditions (scenario). Mean seasonal temperature (MST) of sowing dates ranged from 16 to 27.3 °C, while the mean temperature from the heading to maturity (MTHM) stage was varying between 12.9 to 30.4 °C. Coefficients of determination (R2) between wheat morphology parameters and temperature were highly significant, with a range of 0.84–0.96. Impacts of temperature on wheat sown on 15 March were found to be as severe as to exterminate the crop before heading. The spikes and spikelets were not formed under a mean seasonal temperature higher than 25.5 °C. In a nutshell, elevated temperature (3–4 °C) till the end-century can reduce grain yield by about 30% in semi-arid and arid regions of Pakistan. These findings are crucial for growers and especially for policymakers to decide on sustainable wheat production for food security in the region.

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Projection of Hydro-Climatic Extreme Events under Climate Change in Yom and Nan River Basins, Thailand

Water ◽

10.3390/w13050665 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (5) ◽

pp. 665

Author(s):

Chanchai Petpongpan ◽

Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽

Supattra Visessri ◽

Duangrudee Kositgittiwong

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Extreme Events ◽

River Basins ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Extreme Floods ◽

Extreme Flood ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

Due to a continuous increase in global temperature, the climate has been changing without sign of alleviation. An increase in the air temperature has caused changes in the hydrologic cycle, which have been followed by several emergencies of natural extreme events around the world. Thailand is one of the countries that has incurred a huge loss in assets and lives from the extreme flood and drought events, especially in the northern part. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological regime in the Yom and Nan River basins, affected by climate change as well as the possibility of extreme floods and droughts. The hydrological processes of the study areas were generated via the physically-based hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The projected climate conditions were dependent on the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 between 2021 and 2095. Results show that the average air temperature, annual rainfall, and annual runoff will be significantly increased in the intermediate future (2046–2070) onwards, especially under RCP 8.5. According to the Flow Duration Curve and return period of peak discharge, there are fluctuating trends in the occurrence of extreme floods and drought events under RCP 2.6 from the future (2021–2045) to the far future (2071–2095). However, under RCP 8.5, the extreme flood and drought events seem to be more severe. The probability of extreme flood remains constant from the reference period to the near future, then rises dramatically in the intermediate and the far future. The intensity of extreme droughts will be increased in the near future and decreased in the intermediate future due to high annual rainfall, then tending to have an upward trend in the far future.

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