scholarly journals A Study to Examine Time-Varying Effectiveness of Stock Returns on Tehran Stock Exchange

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahele SiamiNamini ◽  
Fereydoun RahnamaRoudposhti ◽  
Mohammad.H Janani
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Time Varying

scholarly journals Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from the Vietnamese Stock Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dzung Phan Tran Trung ◽  
Hung Pham Quang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Ratio Test ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Variance Ratio ◽  
Variance Ratio Test ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to test the adaptive market hypothesis in the two main Vietnamese stock exchanges, namely Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HSX) and Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX), by measuring the relationship between current stock returns and historical stock returns. In particular, the tests employed are the automatic variance ratio test (“AVR”), the automatic portmanteau test (“AP”), the generalized spectral test (“GS”), and the time-varying autoregressive (TV-AR) approach. The empirical results validate the adaptive market hypothesis in the Vietnamese stock market. Furthermore, the results suggest that the evolution of HSX has served as an important factor of the adaptive market hypothesis.

scholarly journals The Evolving Efficiency Of The South African Stock Exchange

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 997 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lumengo Bonga-Bonga
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
South African ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The South ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Nested Models ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Weak Form Efficiency

This paper tests the weak-form efficiency in the South African stock exchange - the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) - under the hypothesis that emerging markets efficiency evolves through time as these markets constantly enhance their regulatory environment. The paper makes use of the time varying GARCH model in testing this hypothesis. In addition, the paper compares the out-of-sample forecast performance of the time varying and fixed parameter GARCH models in predicting stock returns in the JSE making use of MSE-F statistics for nested models proposed (McCracken, 1999). The findings of the paper show that the two models provide the same conclusion in showing that the JSE has been efficient during the period of the analysis. In addition, the time varying model outperforms the fixed coefficient model in predicting the JSE stock returns. This finding indicates that the time-varying parameter model adds a benefit in testing the weak-form efficiency or modelling stock return in the JSE.

scholarly journals The Assessment Of Market Risk Premium In South Africa

2010 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lumengo Bonga-Bonga
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
South African ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The South ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Premium Model

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0in; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; mso-pagination: none;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 10pt;" lang="EN-GB">This paper makes use of time-varying parameter GARCH-M model to estimate the risk aversion parameter for the South African stock market. The paper further compares the forecasts performance of a time-varying risk premium model with that of a constant risk premium model in predicting stock market returns on the South African stock exchange. The findings of the paper show that risk premium is time varying and indicate that stock market in South Africa is vulnerable to external shocks. Moreover, the paper finds that the time-varying GARCH-M model outperforms the fixed parameter GARCH-M model in predicting stock returns when short-term forecast horizons are used. </span></p>

scholarly journals Value-at-Risk Analysis for Measuring Stochastic Volatility of Stock Returns: Using GARCH-Based Dynamic Conditional Correlation Model

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 215824402110057
Author(s):  
Fahim Afzal ◽  
Pan Haiying ◽  
Farman Afzal ◽  
Asif Mahmood ◽  
Amir Ikram
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Actual Behavior ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Dynamic Conditional Correlation

To assess the time-varying dynamics in value-at-risk (VaR) estimation, this study has employed an integrated approach of dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models on daily stock return of the emerging markets. A daily log-returns of three leading indices such as KSE100, KSE30, and KSE-ALL from Pakistan Stock Exchange and SSE180, SSE50 and SSE-Composite from Shanghai Stock Exchange during the period of 2009–2019 are used in DCC-GARCH modeling. Joint DCC parametric results of stock indices show that even in the highly volatile stock markets, the bivariate time-varying DCC model provides better performance than traditional VaR models. Thus, the parametric results in the DCC-GRACH model indicate the effectiveness of the model in the dynamic stock markets. This study is helpful to the stockbrokers and investors to understand the actual behavior of stocks in dynamic markets. Subsequently, the results can also provide better insights into forecasting VaR while considering the combined correlational effect of all stocks.

Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Effectiveness in Stock Futures Market: Evidence from National Stock Exchange, India

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (3) ◽  
pp. 137-152
Author(s):  
A. Shanthi ◽  
R. Thamilselvan
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Hedge Ratio ◽  
Hedging Effectiveness ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Optimal Hedge

The major objective of the study is to examine the performance of optimal hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness in stock futures market in National Stock Exchange, India by estimating the following econometric models like Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and time varying Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model by evaluating in sample observation and out of sample observations for the period spanning from 1st January 2011 till 31st March 2018 by accommodating sixteen stock futures retrieved through www.nseindia.com by considering banking sector of Indian economy. The findings of the study indicate both the in sample and out of sample hedging performances suggest the various strategies obtained through the time varying optimal hedge ratio, which minimizes the conditional variance performs better than the employed alterative models for most of the underlying stock futures contracts in select banking sectors in India. Moreover, the study also envisage about the model selection criteria is most important for appropriate hedge ratio through risk averse investors. Finally, the research work is also in line with the previous attempts Myers (1991), Baillie and Myers (1991) and Park and Switzer (1995a, 1995b) made in the US markets

scholarly journals PENGARUH KURS, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT DAN SOLVABILITAS TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM INVESTOR PADA PERUSAHAAN PERTAMBANGAN

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 6262
Author(s):  
Martina Carissa Dewi ◽  
Luh Gede Sri Artini
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Mining Company ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Regression Test

The level of return obtained by investors is influenced by microeconomic and macroeconomic factors. This study aims to obtain empirical evidence regarding the effect of exchange rates, Gross Domestic Product and solvency on stock returns. This research was conducted at the mining company in the coal sub-sector on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. All the coal mining sub-sector companies listed on the Stock Exchange for the period 2014-2017 used as the population. The method of determining the sample used is using a saturated sampling technique. Multiple linear regression test used as the data analysis on this research. Based on the results of the analysis of this study it was found that the exchange rate and GDP had a negative and significant effect on stock returns. The solvency proxied by DER has a positive and significant effect on stock returns. Keywords: Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product, Solvability and Return.

scholarly journals Bayesian analysis of time-varying interactions between stock returns and foreign equity flows

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Boubekeur Baba ◽  
Güven Sevil
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Negative Feedback ◽  
Positive Feedback ◽  
Positive Response ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
New Findings ◽  
Net Flows ◽  
Feedback Trading

AbstractThis study discusses the trading behavior of foreign investors with respect to economic uncertainty in the South Korean stock market from a time-varying perspective. We employ a news-based measure of economic uncertainty along with the model of time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility. The empirical analysis reveals several new findings about foreign investors’ trading behaviors. First, we find evidence that positive feedback trading often appears during periods of high economic uncertainty, whereas negative feedback trading is exclusively observable during periods of low economic uncertainty. Second, the foreign investors’ feedback trading appears mostly to be well-timed and often leads the time-varying economic uncertainty except in periods of global crises. Third, lagged negative (positive) response of net flows to economic uncertainty is found to be coupled with lagged positive (negative) feedback trading. Fourth, the study documents an asymmetric response of foreign investors with regard to negative and positive shocks of economic uncertainty. Specifically, we find that they instantly turn to positive feedback trading after a negative contemporaneous response of net flows to shocks of economic uncertainty. In contrast, they move slowly toward negative feedback trading after a positive response of net flows to uncertainty shocks.

scholarly journals The time-varying effects of oil prices on oil–gas stock returns of the fragile five countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı ◽  
Gül Huyugüzel Kışla ◽  
A. Nazif Çatık
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Structural Break Test ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oil Gas

AbstractThis study analyzes oil price exposure of the oil–gas sector stock returns for the fragile five countries based on a multi-factor asset pricing model using daily data from 29 May 1996 to 27 January 2020. The endogenous structural break test suggests the presence of serious parameter instabilities due to fluctuations in the oil and stock markets over the period under study. Moreover, the time-varying estimates indicate that the oil–gas sectors of these countries are riskier than the overall stock market. The results further suggest that, except for Indonesia, oil prices have a positive impact on the sectoral returns of all markets, whereas the impact of the exchange rates on the oil–gas sector returns varies across time and countries.

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