Trends in the polar sea ice coverage under climate change scenario

The development in the satellite microwave technology during the past three decades has offered an opportunity to the scientific community to access the sea ice data over the polar regions, which was otherwise inaccessible for continuous monitoring by any other means. The present study focuses on the trends in the Sea Ice Extent (SIE) over different sectors of the Arctic and the Antarctic regions and the interannual variability in their extremes. In general, the data over the period (1979-2007) reveal marked interannual variability in the sea ice cover with an increasing and the decreasing trend over the Antarctic and the Arctic region respectively. Over the southern hemisphere, only the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas sector shows an exceptional decreasing trend. However, in the northern hemisphere, all the sectors show a decreasing trend, with the Kara and Barents Seas sector being the most prominent one. Although, the decreasing trend of the SIE over the Arctic could be attributed to the global warming, an intriguing question still remains as to why the other polar region shows a different behaviour.

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Comparison of sea ice concentrations from ASI, BT and NT2 algorithms with ERA-Interim dataset in the Arctic and Antarctic regions

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4531 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Shuang Liang ◽

Jiangyuan Zeng ◽

Zhen Li

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Temporal Distribution ◽

Arctic Region ◽

The Arctic ◽

Polar Regions ◽

Significant Discrepancy ◽

Sea Ice Concentration ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Long Time ◽

Mean Square Difference

Evaluating the performance and consistency of passive microwave (PM) sea ice concentration (SIC) products derived from different algorithms is critical since a good knowledge of the quality of the satellite SIC products is essential for their application and improvement. To comprehensively evaluate the performance of satellite SIC in long time series and the whole polar regions (both Arctic and Antarctic), in the study we examined the spatial and temporal distribution of the discrepancy between four PM satellite SIC products with the ERA-Interim sea ice fraction dataset (ERA SIC) during the period of 2015-2018. The four PM SIC products include the DMSP SSMIS with Arctic Radiation and Turbulence Interaction Study Sea Ice (ASI) algorithm (SSMIS/ASI), the GCOM-W AMSR2 with NASA Bootstrap (BT) algorithm (AMSR2/BT), the Chinese Feng Yun-3B with enhanced NASA Team (NT2) sea ice algorithm (FY3B/NT2), and the Chinese Feng Yun-3C with NT2 (FY3C/NT2) at a spatial resolution of 12.5 km.The results show the spatial patterns of PM SIC products are generally in good agreement with ERA SIC. The comparison of monthly and annual SIC shows that the largest bias and root mean square difference (RMSD) for the PM SIC products mainly occur in summer and the marginal ice zone, indicating that there are still many uncertainties in PM SIC products in such period and region. Meanwhile, the daily sea ice extent (SIE) and sea ice area (SIA) derived from the four PM SIC products can generally well reflect the variation trend of SIE and SIA in Arctic and Antarctic. The largest bias of SIE and SIA are above 4&#215;106 km2 when the sea ice reaches the maximum and minimum value, and the daily bias of SIE and SIA vary seasonally and regionally, which is mainly concentrated from June to October in Arctic. In general, among the four PM SIC products, the SSMIS/ASI product performs the best compared with ERA SIC though it usually underestimates SIC with a negative bias. The FY3B/NT2 and FY3C/NT2 products show more significant discrepancy with higher RMSD and bias in Arctic and Antarctic compared with the SSMIS/ASI and AMSR2/BT. The AMSR2/BT product performs much better in Antarctic than in Arctic and it always overestimates ERA SIC with a positive bias. The consistency of the four PM products concerning ERA SIC in the Antarctic region is generally superior to that in Arctic region.

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Observations of iodine monoxide columns from satellite

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-8-637-2008 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 8 (3) ◽

pp. 637-653 ◽

Cited By ~ 112

Author(s):

A. Schönhardt ◽

A. Richter ◽

F. Wittrock ◽

H. Kirk ◽

H. Oetjen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Arctic Region ◽

The Arctic ◽

Polar Regions ◽

Ice Coverage ◽

Iodine Monoxide ◽

Iodine Compounds ◽

Spatial Coverage ◽

Iodine Release ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract. Iodine species in the troposphere are linked to ozone depletion and new particle formation. In this study, a full year of iodine monoxide (IO) columns retrieved from measurements of the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument is presented, coupled with a discussion of their uncertainties and the detection limits. The largest amounts of IO are found near springtime in the Antarctic. A seasonal variation of iodine monoxide in Antarctica is revealed with high values in springtime, slightly less IO in the summer period and again larger amounts in autumn. In winter, no elevated IO levels are found in the areas accessible to satellite measurements. This seasonal cycle is in good agreement with recent ground-based measurements in Antarctica. In the Arctic region, no elevated IO levels were found in the period analysed. This implies that different conditions with respect to iodine release exist in the two Polar Regions. To investigate possible release mechanisms, comparisons of IO columns with those of tropospheric BrO, and ice coverage are described and discussed. Some parallels and interesting differences between IO and BrO temporal and spatial distributions are identified. Overall, the large spatial coverage of satellite retrieved IO data and the availability of a long-term dataset provide new insight about the abundances and distributions of iodine compounds in the troposphere.

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Comparing and contrasting the behaviour of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice over the 35 year period 1979-2013

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/2015aog69a909 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 56 (69) ◽

pp. 18-28 ◽

Cited By ~ 168

Author(s):

Ian Simmonds

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Positive Trend ◽

Polar Regions ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

The Antarctic

AbstractWe examine the evolution of sea-ice extent (SIE) over both polar regions for 35 years from November 1978 to December 2013, as well as for the global total ice (Arctic plus Antarctic). Our examination confirms the ongoing loss of Arctic sea ice, and we find significant (p˂ 0.001) negative trends in all months, seasons and in the annual mean. The greatest rate of decrease occurs in September, and corresponds to a loss of 3 x 106 km2 over 35 years. The Antarctic shows positive trends in all seasons and for the annual mean (p˂0.01), with summer attaining a reduced significance (p˂0.10). Based on our longer record (which includes the remarkable year 2013) the positive Antarctic ice trends can no longer be considered ‘small’, and the positive trend in the annual mean of (15.29 ± 3.85) x 103 km2 a–1 is almost one-third of the magnitude of the Arctic annual mean decrease. The global annual mean SIE series exhibits a trend of (–35.29 ± 5.75) x 103 km2 a-1 (p<0.01). Finally we offer some thoughts as to why the SIE trends in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations differ from the observed Antarctic increases.

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Record high Pacific Arctic seawater temperatures and delayed sea ice advance in response to episodic atmospheric blocking

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-77488-y ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Tsubasa Kodaira ◽

Takuji Waseda ◽

Takehiko Nose ◽

Jun Inoue

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Region ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

Sea Surface ◽

The Arctic ◽

Atmospheric Blocking ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

The Pacific ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Highly Correlated

AbstractArctic sea ice is rapidly decreasing during the recent period of global warming. One of the significant factors of the Arctic sea ice loss is oceanic heat transport from lower latitudes. For months of sea ice formation, the variations in the sea surface temperature over the Pacific Arctic region were highly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the seasonal sea surface temperatures recorded their highest values in autumn 2018 when the PDO index was neutral. It is shown that the anomalous warm seawater was a rapid ocean response to the southerly winds associated with episodic atmospheric blocking over the Bering Sea in September 2018. This warm seawater was directly observed by the R/V Mirai Arctic Expedition in November 2018 to significantly delay the southward sea ice advance. If the atmospheric blocking forms during the PDO positive phase in the future, the annual maximum Arctic sea ice extent could be dramatically reduced.

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The potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-12-3747-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 12 (12) ◽

pp. 3747-3757 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Yuanyuan Zhang ◽

Xiao Cheng ◽

Jiping Liu ◽

Fengming Hui

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Region ◽

Strong Relationship ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ◽

Ice Leads ◽

Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Abstract. The Arctic sea ice extent throughout the melt season is closely associated with initial sea ice state in winter and spring. Sea ice leads are important sites of energy fluxes in the Arctic Ocean, which may play an important role in the evolution of Arctic sea ice. In this study, we examine the potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent forecast using a recently developed daily sea ice lead product retrieved from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Our results show that July pan-Arctic sea ice extent can be predicted from the area of sea ice leads integrated from midwinter to late spring, with a prediction error of 0.28 million km2 that is smaller than the standard deviation of the observed interannual variability. However, the predictive skills for August and September pan-Arctic sea ice extent are very low. When the area of sea ice leads integrated in the Atlantic and central and west Siberian sector of the Arctic is used, it has a significantly strong relationship (high predictability) with both July and August sea ice extent in the Atlantic and central and west Siberian sector of the Arctic. Thus, the realistic representation of sea ice leads (e.g., the areal coverage) in numerical prediction systems might improve the skill of forecast in the Arctic region.

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The role of moisture transport for precipitation in the inter-annual and inter-daily fluctuations of the Arctic sea ice extension

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-10-121-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 121-133 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Luis Gimeno-Sotelo ◽

Raquel Nieto ◽

Marta Vázquez ◽

Luis Gimeno

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Moisture Transport ◽

Arctic Region ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Ice Melting ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Moisture Sources ◽

Arctic Sea

Abstract. By considering the moisture transport for precipitation (MTP) for a target region to be the moisture that arrives in this region from its major moisture sources and which then results in precipitation in that region, we explore (i) whether the MTP from the main moisture sources for the Arctic region is linked with inter-annual fluctuations in the extent of Arctic sea ice superimposed on its decline and (ii) the role of extreme MTP events in the inter-daily change in the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) when extreme MTP simultaneously arrives from the four main moisture regions that supply it. The results suggest (1) that ice melting at the scale of inter-annual fluctuations against the trend is favoured by an increase in moisture transport in summer, autumn, and winter and a decrease in spring and, (2) on a daily basis, extreme humidity transport increases the formation of ice in winter and decreases it in spring, summer, and autumn; in these three seasons extreme humidity transport therefore contributes to Arctic sea ice melting. These patterns differ sharply from that linked to the decline on a long-range scale, especially in summer when the opposite trend applies, as ice melt is favoured by a decrease in moisture transport for this season at this scale.

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Assessment of sea ice simulations in the CMIP5 models

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-9-399-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 399-409 ◽

Cited By ~ 94

Author(s):

Q. Shu ◽

Z. Song ◽

F. Qiao

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Climate Models ◽

Linear Trend ◽

Ocean Modeling ◽

The Arctic ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Output Data ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

The Antarctic ◽

Assimilation System

Abstract. The historical simulations of sea ice during 1979 to 2005 by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are compared with satellite observations, Global Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (GIOMAS) output data and Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) output data in this study. Forty-nine models, almost all of the CMIP5 climate models and earth system models with historical simulation, are used. For the Antarctic, multi-model ensemble mean (MME) results can give good climatology of sea ice extent (SIE), but the linear trend is incorrect. The linear trend of satellite-observed Antarctic SIE is 1.29 (±0.57) × 105 km2 decade−1; only about 1/7 CMIP5 models show increasing trends, and the linear trend of CMIP5 MME is negative with the value of −3.36 (±0.15) × 105 km2 decade−1. For the Arctic, both climatology and linear trend are better reproduced. Sea ice volume (SIV) is also evaluated in this study, and this is a first attempt to evaluate the SIV in all CMIP5 models. Compared with the GIOMAS and PIOMAS data, the SIV values in both the Antarctic and the Arctic are too small, especially for the Antarctic in spring and winter. The GIOMAS Antarctic SIV in September is 19.1 × 103 km3, while the corresponding Antarctic SIV of CMIP5 MME is 13.0 × 103 km3 (almost 32% less). The Arctic SIV of CMIP5 in April is 27.1 × 103 km3, which is also less than that from PIOMAS SIV (29.5 × 103 km3). This means that the sea ice thickness simulated in CMIP5 is too thin, although the SIE is fairly well simulated.

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High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region

Nature ◽

10.1038/nature02050 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 425 (6961) ◽

pp. 947-950 ◽

Cited By ~ 356

Author(s):

Seymour Laxon ◽

Neil Peacock ◽

Doug Smith

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Interannual Variability ◽

Arctic Region ◽

The Arctic ◽

Ice Thickness ◽

Sea Ice Thickness ◽

The Arctic Region

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A comparison of Arctic and Antarctic climate change, present and future

Antarctic Science ◽

10.1017/s0954102009001874 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 21 (3) ◽

pp. 179-188 ◽

Cited By ~ 41

Author(s):

John E. Walsh

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

Low Frequency ◽

Southern Annular Mode ◽

The Arctic ◽

Polar Regions ◽

Apparent Paradox ◽

Late 20Th Century ◽

Model Simulations ◽

The Antarctic

AbstractOngoing climate variations in the Arctic and Antarctic pose an apparent paradox. In contrast to the large warming and loss of sea ice in the Arctic in recent decades, Antarctic temperatures and sea ice show little change except for the Antarctic Peninsula. However, model simulations indicate that the Arctic changes have been shaped largely by low-frequency variations of the atmospheric circulation, superimposed on a greenhouse warming that is apparent in model simulations when ensemble averages smooth out the circulation-driven variability of the late 20th century. By contrast, the Antarctic changes of recent decades appear to be shaped by ozone depletion and an associated strengthening of the southern annular mode of the atmospheric circulation. While the signature of greenhouse-driven change is projected to emerge from the natural variability during the present century, the emergence of a statistically significant greenhouse signal may be slower than in other regions. Models suggest that feedbacks from retreating sea ice will make autumn and winter the seasons of the earliest emergence of the greenhouse signal in both Polar Regions. Priorities for enhanced robustness of the Antarctic climate simulations are the inclusion of ozone chemistry and the realistic simulation of water vapour over the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

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A new pattern of the moisture transport for precipitation related to the drastic decline in Arctic sea ice extent

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-9-611-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 611-625 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Luis Gimeno-Sotelo ◽

Raquel Nieto ◽

Marta Vázquez ◽

Luis Gimeno

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Moisture Transport ◽

Arctic Region ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Target Region ◽

Circulation Types ◽

Sea Ice Decline ◽

Moisture Fluxes

Abstract. In this study we use the term moisture transport for precipitation for a target region as the moisture coming to this region from its major moisture sources resulting in precipitation over the target region (MTP). We have identified changes in the pattern of moisture transport for precipitation over the Arctic region, the Arctic Ocean, and its 13 main subdomains concurrent with the major sea ice decline that occurred in 2003. The pattern consists of a general decrease in moisture transport in summer and enhanced moisture transport in autumn and early winter, with different contributions depending on the moisture source and ocean subregion. The pattern is statistically significant and consistent with changes in the vertically integrated moisture fluxes and frequency of circulation types. The results of this paper also reveal that the assumed and partially documented enhanced poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes as a consequence of increased moisture from climate change seems to be less simple and constant than typically recognised in relation to enhanced Arctic precipitation throughout the year in the present climate.

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