Maize Area and Production Forecasting in Eastern Region of Madhya Pradesh: An Application of Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 361
Author(s):  
Ogunleke R
Keyword(s):  
Arima Model ◽  
Madhya Pradesh ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Production Forecasting

Wheat production forecasting for a predominantly unirrigated region in Madhya Pradesh )India)

1994 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 1307-1316 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. N. SRIDHAR ◽  
V. K. DADHWAL ◽  
K. N. CHAUDHARI ◽  
R. SHARMA ◽  
G. D. BAIRAGI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Madhya Pradesh ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Production Forecasting

scholarly journals Forecasting of Potato Prices in India: An Application of Arima Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ravi Ranjan Kumar
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Madhya Pradesh ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Absolute Percent Error

In the present paper, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models developed to forecast the prices of potato using time series data of eighteen years from 2002-2019. The best models selected by comparing Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The study revealed that ARIMA (1,1,2), ARIMA (2,1,1)(0,0,2)[12], ARIMA (2,1,2), ARIMA (1,1,4)(0,0,1)[12], ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,2)[12], ARIMA (0,1,0)(0,1,1)[12], and ARIMA (3,1,3) were the best fitted models for forecasting of price of potato for the states of Utter Pradesh, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab, Tripura and India respectively. The prices of potato in Utter Pradesh, West Bengal and India will be increasing with the first-quarter providing the highest price. The prices of potato in Madhya Pradesh and Tripura will be highest in the fourth quarter. In Punjab, the prices of potato will be increasing with the third-quarter. The forecast shows that market prices of potato in Utter Pradesh, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab, Tripura, and overall India would be ruling in the highest value of .1208 `/qt, 1812 `/qt, 1345 `/qt, 1712 `/qt, 1354 `/qt, 2636 `/qt, and 1715 `/qt respectively for the year 2020.

scholarly journals Modelling Annual Cocoa Production Using ARIMA Time Series Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 135-144
Author(s):  
Oni O.V. ◽  
Oni O.A. ◽  
Akanle Y.O. ◽  
Ogunleye T.B.
Keyword(s):  
Technical Assistance ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Agricultural Transformation ◽  
Production Forecasting ◽  
Diversification Strategies ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
Cocoa Farmers ◽  
Major Target

Cocoa is the most valuable tropical agricultural commodity, comes next to oil; a major target in Nigeria’s export diversification strategies. Cocoa production forecasting is important to the Nigerian agricultural transformation agenda. This study attempts to forecast Nigerian cocoa production between 2019 and 2025 using the ARIMA model. The automated analytical procedure implemented in the R software package indicated that ARIMA (0, 1, 1) is the combination with the least Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) and hence, the most appropriate for forecasting. The results revealed that cocoa production would fall by more than 20% in 2025 in comparison with 2018. Thus, to guard against the fall, cocoa farmers in the country should be incentivized through adequate financial and technical assistance.

The Effects of Significant International Sports Events on Hungarian Suicide Rates

Crisis ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 148-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karoly Bozsonyi ◽  
Peter Osvath ◽  
Sandor Fekete ◽  
Lajos Bálint
Keyword(s):  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Olympic Games ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Intervention Analysis ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Sports Events ◽  
Sport Events ◽  
The Olympic Games

Abstract. Background: Several studies found a significant relationship between important sport events and suicidal behavior. Aims: We set out to investigate whether there is a significant relationship between the raw suicide rate and the most important international sports events (Olympic Games, FIFA World Cup, UEFA European Championship) in such an achievement-oriented society as the Hungarian one, where these sport events receive great attention. Method: We examined suicide cases occurring over 15,706 days between January 1, 1970, and December 31, 2012 (43 years), separately for each gender. Because of the age-specific characteristics of suicide, the effects of these sport events were analyzed for the middle-aged (30–59 years old) and the elderly (over 60 years old) generations as well as for gender-specific population groups. The role of international sport events was examined with the help of time-series intervention analysis after cyclical and seasonal components were removed. Intervention analysis was based on the ARIMA model. Results: Our results showed that only the Olympic Games had a significant effect in the middle-aged population. Neither in the older male nor in any of the female age groups was a relationship between suicide and Olympic Games detected. Conclusion: The Olympic Games seem to decrease the rate of suicide among middle-aged men, slightly but significantly.

PRELIMINARY PHYTOCHEMICAL ANALYSIS OF SELECTED MEDICINAL PLANTS OF NORTH EASTERN REGION OF INDIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 88-97
Author(s):  
MELAKYRKHU NIANGMIH ◽  
SAMIRAN CHUTIA ◽  
DAS BANYASHREE ◽  
SARKAR BAPI ROY ◽  
DEY BIPLAB KUMAR ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medicinal Plants ◽  
Phytochemical Analysis ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
North Eastern

Göçmen çocuklar ve okul kültürleri: Bir bütünleştirme çalışması

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Halis Sakız
Keyword(s):  
Public Schools ◽  
School Culture ◽  
Social Acceptance ◽  
School Administrators ◽  
Migrant Children ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Negative Attitudes ◽  
School Cultures ◽  
Inclusive School

Bu makale, Türkiye’de yoğun göç almakta olan Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi’ndeki okullarda, göçmen çocukların okullara dâhil edilmesine yönelik olarak idarecilerin düşünce, inanç ve tutumlarını inceleyen nitel bir araştırmanın sonuçlarını bildirmektedir. Araştırma özelde, okul yöneticilerinin göçmen çocukların kendi okullarında eğitilmesine yönelik tutumlarını, bu eğitimin önünde duran ve okul ikliminden kaynaklanan engelleri ve göçmen çocukların kendini ait hissettikleri bütünleştirici okul iklimleri inşa edilebilmesi için eğitim sistemindeki mevcut fırsatları ortaya koymayı amaçlamıştır. Araştırmada, 18 okul yöneticisinden nitel araştırma yöntemlerinden olan yarı-yapılandırılmış görüşmeler kullanılarak veri toplanmış ve bu veriler tematik analiz yöntemiyle çözümlenmiştir. Araştırma sonucunda (i) okul yöneticilerinin göçmen çocuklara ayrıştırılmış ortamlarda eğitim verilmesini desteklediği ve kendi okullarında eğitim görmelerine dair olumsuz tutumlar beslediği, (ii) yapısal yetersizliklerin ve düşük toplumsal kabul düzeyinin göçmen çocukların eğitimine yönelik olumsuz tutumları önemli ölçüde etkilediği ve (iii) bütünleşik okul kültürlerinin oluşması için paydaşların psiko-sosyal ve yapısal anlamda desteklenmesi gerektiği ortaya çıkmıştır. ENGLISH ABSTRACTMigrant children and school cultures: A suggestion for inclusionThis article reports on the findings of an empirical research investigating the thoughts, beliefs and attitudes towards the inclusion of migrant children in the South-eastern region of Turkey which is currently exposed to intensive migration waves. Specifically, the article explores the attitudes of school administrators towards the education of migrant children in their schools, the barriers to this education stemming from the school culture and the opportunities in the education system to build inclusive school cultures in which migrant children can feel belonging to. The research employed 18 school administrators, utilized semi-structured interviews to collect qualitative data and analyzed them through thematic analysis. Findings showed that (a) school administrators supported education of migrant children in segregated environments and possessed negative attitudes towards their education in public schools; (b) structural limitations and low social acceptance levels affected the negative attitudes towards the education of migrant children and (c) stakeholders needed to be provided with psycho-social and structural support in order to establish inclusive school cultures.  Keywords: Migrant children; inclusive school culture; qualitative research; Turkey 

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