scholarly journals Modelling Annual Cocoa Production Using ARIMA Time Series Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 135-144
Author(s):  
Oni O.V. ◽  
Oni O.A. ◽  
Akanle Y.O. ◽  
Ogunleye T.B.
Keyword(s):  
Technical Assistance ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Agricultural Transformation ◽  
Production Forecasting ◽  
Diversification Strategies ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
Cocoa Farmers ◽  
Major Target

Cocoa is the most valuable tropical agricultural commodity, comes next to oil; a major target in Nigeria’s export diversification strategies. Cocoa production forecasting is important to the Nigerian agricultural transformation agenda. This study attempts to forecast Nigerian cocoa production between 2019 and 2025 using the ARIMA model. The automated analytical procedure implemented in the R software package indicated that ARIMA (0, 1, 1) is the combination with the least Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) and hence, the most appropriate for forecasting. The results revealed that cocoa production would fall by more than 20% in 2025 in comparison with 2018. Thus, to guard against the fall, cocoa farmers in the country should be incentivized through adequate financial and technical assistance.

scholarly journals Cocoa Plantation among Smallholder Farmers: Towards Mitigating Socio-Economic Effects of COVID-19 in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusuff Jelili Amuda
Keyword(s):  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Agricultural Transformation ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Cocoa Farmers ◽  
Cocoa Plantation

Post COVID-19 socio-economic recovery has become the priority of both developed and developing countries. Smallholder farmers have been contributing to the non-oil sector of the economy in Nigeria. However, little effort is made in exploring the non-oil sector of the economy such as cocoa plantation as a way of mitigating the socio-economic effect of COVID-19 in the country. This paper primarily aims at exploring cocoa plantation among smallholder farmers to alleviate the socio-economic effect of COVID-19 in the country. The methodology used in this paper is a systematic literature review with content analysis resulting in identifying six themes. The results indicated that smallholder farmers have been actively partaking in cocoa plantation and the government has been supportive of them in this regard. It is further demonstrated that agricultural transformation contributes to economic diversification through innovative policy and capacity building among cocoa farmers in the country which are culminated in mitigating the socio-economic effect of COVID-19 in the recent. In conclusion, it is noteworthy to say that giving support especially coca sidling to smallholder farmers can be instrumental in bridging the vacuum created by COVID-19 in the country. Thus, it is suggested that interventions of individual philanthropists, government, and international communities will boost the morale and resilience of the farmers towards enhancing cocoa production to alleviate the socio-economic effect of COVID-19 in particular and maximize national economic growth in general.

Profile of migrants for cocoa production and agronomic characteristics of cocoa farms in Western Côte d'Ivoire

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 051-062
Author(s):  
Kpangui Kouassi Bruno ◽  
Sangne Yao Charles ◽  
Kouakou Kouassi Apollinaire ◽  
Koua Kadio Attey Noël ◽  
Koffi N'Guessan Achille
Keyword(s):  
Cote D'ivoire ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Côte D’Ivoire ◽  
The West ◽  
Cote D’Ivoire ◽  
Côte D'ivoire ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Migrant Farmers ◽  
Cocoa Farmers

The mountainous relief of the West of Côte d'Ivoire and the large savannahs next to forests didn’t make this zone very excellent for cocoa production. However, for the last decade, an important influx of farming population has been observed in this area. The objective of this study is to analyze the dynamics of the settlement of migrant farmers in the West region of Côte d’Ivoire, using the department of Biankouma as a case of study. So, individual surveys were conducted among 203 cocoa farmers from 15 villages in the department of Biankouma, who had migrated to this region, It was found that the majority of these farmers are natives of Côte d'Ivoire (38.3%) and non-natives (33.5%) from countries in the West Africa region. The migratory flow to this region is mainly internal, with 95.6% of farmers coming from 11 Districts and 55 localities in the country. While initially (i.e., before 1985), farmers came from towns near Duékoué (11.8%), these waves of movement from towns in neighboring districts (Bas-Sassandra and Sassandra-Marahoué) to the Western Region will experience their highest rates between 2002 and 2013. Observations drawn from our research findings support the hypothesis that the political-military crisis that the country has experienced has accentuated migratory flows of farmers for cocoa production in western Côte d'Ivoire and these migratory flows could be the cause of the degradation of forest cover in the Biankouma Department.

scholarly journals Socio-economic characteristics of registered cocoa farmers in Edo State, Nigeria

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-266
Author(s):  
C.O. Osarenren ◽  
J.O. Ejuetueyin ◽  
K.I. Eweka
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Formal Education ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Cost Ratio ◽  
Gross Margin ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
Edo State ◽  
Cocoa Farmers

This study examined the socio-economic characteristics of registered cocoa farmers in Edo State; Nigeria. Primary data was collected using a well structured questionnaire administered to 180 registered cocoa farmers selected using a multi-stage sampling technique. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and budgetary technique. Results showed that 88.9% of cocoa farmers were male with a mean range of 46 years with 75% being married and 88.8% having formal education. The budgetary technique was used to determine the profitability of cocoa production, which was found to be profitable in the study area at a gross margin of N66, 350, Net Farm Income of N59, 200, and net return on investment of N 1.11.The Benefit Cost Ratio and Expense Structure Ratio of 2.11 and 0.12 respectively indicated that cocoa production was economically profitable and viable since the BCR is greater than 1 and the Gross Ratio (GR) of cocoa production is 0.47. From these profitability ratios, it shows that cocoa production is a profitable business in the study area. Inadequate finance to operate on large scale was found to be the major constraint to the cocoa farmers in the study area. The study concludes that cocoa production is profitable and was recommended that production could be improved and sustained through provision of soft loans to the farmers.Keywords: socio-economics, characteristics, registered cocoa farmers

scholarly journals Transfer of Technology (Tot) Skills Factors Contributing to Work Performance Among Extension Agents in Malaysian Cocoa Board, Peninsular Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nur Bahiah Mohamed Haris
Keyword(s):  
Work Performance ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Extension Agents ◽  
Main Function ◽  
Extension Agent ◽  
Transfer Of Technology ◽  
Cocoa Products ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
Cocoa Farmers ◽  
Structured Questionnaire

The main function of agricultural extensionists is to facilitate learning and disseminate new knowledge and technologies through non-formal educational settings. This will lead to improved agricultural productivity and increase farmers’ income. In the lens of the cocoa production scenario in Malaysia, it used to be a popular crop as this sector became the third-largest producer in the world since the 1980s, however that has changed over the years. Despite the reduced size of land use and the dropping production of cocoa over the past decades, exports of cocoa beans and cocoa products are growing steadily each year. Thus, with the overwhelming demand for Malaysian chocolate products from other regions, cocoa production should be boosted and not overlooked. Transfer of Technology (ToT) can be seen as the main catalyst that can improve farmers’ performance through extension agent capabilities, this study will determine the factors of ToT skills that contribute to the work performance of extension agents in the Malaysian Cocoa Board (MCB). A total of 353 productive cocoa farmers were employed in this study to evaluate the work performance of extension agents using a structured questionnaire. The data was analysed using descriptive and regression analyses. The results indicated that all the ToT skills (technical skill, technology delivery skill, and evaluation skill) are significant (p < 0.05) towards the work performance of extension agents. The R2 value of 0.520 implies that the three contributors explain about 52% of the variance in the work performance in this study. Hence, this shows the importance of ToT skills in improving the work performance of extension agents, particularly in the MCB and cocoa industry in Malaysia.

Cocoa Farmers` Involvement in Cocoa Production-Related Activities in Oyo State, Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
A. O. Orimogunje ◽  
B. A. Ogundeji ◽  
T. I. Ademola ◽  
T. I. Omirin
Keyword(s):  
Cocoa Production ◽  
Cocoa Farmers

West African cocoa commitments face major tests

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Rural Livelihoods ◽  
West African ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Mutual Benefit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Income Differential ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
Cocoa Farmers ◽  
Price Floor

Subject West African Cocoa. Significance Having amended a June proposal for a cocoa price floor of 2,600 dollars per metric tonne (mt), Ivory Coast and Ghana are seeking to enforce compliance with a revised plan that instead includes a 400-dollar-per-mt Living Income Differential (LID) to improve cocoa farmers' livelihoods. The LID applies to purchases starting in the 2020/21 season; compared to 2019/20 forward sales at this time last year, current sales for 2020/21 are down by two-thirds. To ensure LID compliance, the two cocoa regulators -- the Ivorian Coffee and Cocoa Board (CCC) and Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod) -- have vowed to monitor whether chocolate companies and processors' sustainability programmes can co-exist to mutual benefit. Impacts Both governments will maintain pressure for LID compliance, as they seek to demonstrate efficacy in improving rural livelihoods. The future LID price incentive to farmers may come into conflict with Ivory Coast’s stated goal to limit cocoa production from next year. Third-party certification schemes and in-house sustainability programmes will face pressure to demonstrate equivalent impact to the LID.

Agricultural investors valuing sequences of monetary rewards – results of an experiment

2014 ◽  
Vol 74 (3) ◽  
pp. 379-396
Author(s):  
Martin Philipp Steinhorst ◽  
Enno Bahrs
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Investment Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Theory ◽  
Monetary Rewards ◽  
Investment Models

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to quantify the differences between the classical normative investment theory and alternative investment models of agricultural stakeholders’ choices. Design/methodology/approach – Farmers (n=1,024) and agricultural commodity traders (n=509) were asked to rank investment alternatives. Non-linear regressions were integrated into a Monotonic Analysis of Variance algorithm to analyze the investment rankings. The results reveal coefficients for classical constant discounting, hyperbolic discounting and a preference for a sequence model. Two information criteria indicate the models’ goodness of fit and allow a comparison of the investment rankings of different age groups. Findings – Agribusiness stakeholders have preferences for sequences and could be willing to accept lower internal rates of return for monotone-distributed rewards. Practical implications – The results are useful for state-aided agricultural investment policies and contractual relations within agribusiness. Originality/value – To the author's knowledge, this paper is the first paper to analyze agricultural stakeholders’ preferences for sequences.

scholarly journals Diagnóstico de los Procesos de Asociatividad y la Producción de Cacao en Milagro y sus sectores aledaños / Diagnosis of the Process of Partnership and Cocoa Production and Milagro surrounding areas

Ciencia Unemi ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (14) ◽  
pp. 105
Author(s):  
Eduardo Espinoza Solis ◽  
Yadira Arteaga Estrella
Keyword(s):  
Production Process ◽  
Bargaining Power ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Optimal Development ◽  
Production Processes ◽  
Viable Solution ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
Reducing Costs ◽  
Surrounding Areas ◽  
Cocoa Farmers

El presente ensayo se enmarca en el área de Administración, sub área Modelos innovadores de negocios. Se analiza ala asociatividad y su aporte en los procesos productivos, en vista que muchos de los productores de cacao no logran undesarrollo óptimo en sus procesos de transformación artesanal hacia la industrialización, que les permita mejorar susingresos como parte integral del sustento a sus familias, de manera sostenida y sustentable. Los procesos de asociatividadse presentan como una solución real y viable, demostrando con ellos mejorar el poder de negociación de sus asociados, asícomo la reducción de costos y el compartimiento del riesgo en la inversión.Palabras Clave: asociatividad, cacao, industria artesanal, proceso productivo, innovación. AbstractThis essay is part of the Administration area, a sub-area of innovative business models. We analyze the association and itscontribution to production processes, given that many cocoa farmers do not achieve optimal development in their operations ofindustrial processing towards industrialization. Enabling them to improve their income as an integral part of the support theirfamilies sustained and sustainable manner. The associations processes are presented as a real and viable solution, showing themimprove the bargaining power of its members, as well as reducing costs and sharing of investment risk.Key Words: associativity, cocoa, artisan industry, production process, innovation.

scholarly journals Adoption Levels of Cocoa Rehabilitation Programmes in South West Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 180-189
Author(s):  
Oluwole Matthew Akinnagbe
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Group Discussion ◽  
Sampling Procedure ◽  
Interview Schedule ◽  
Governmental Agencies ◽  
South West ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
Multistage Sampling ◽  
Cocoa Farmers ◽  
Cocoa Seedlings

Cocoa is an important crop to the economies of countries such as Nigeria, Cote D’Ivoire, Ghana and Cameroon in West Africa. This study ascertained the adoption levels of farmers in cocoa rehabilitation programmes in South West, Nigeria. Data for the study were collected from 240 cocoa farmers through the use of interview schedule and focus group discussion. Multistage sampling procedure was used in selecting respondents. Data were analysed using percentage and mean statistics. Results revealed that, adoption index was high in planting young cocoa seedlings under old cocoa trees for the three groups of farmers - farmers that benefitted from government agency cocoa resuscitation programme (98.0%), farmers that benefitted from non-governmental agency cocoa resuscitation programme (94.0%) and farmers that benefitted from both governmental and non-governmental agencies cocoa resuscitation programmes (95.0%). Low adoption index (38.0%, 32.0% and 33.0%) were recorded in coppicing technique for the three groups of farmers, respectively. The most helpful agency in the adoption of cocoa resuscitation programmes was Agricultural Development Programme (M=2.80). To improve the level of adoption of cocoa resuscitation programmes, Federal Government of Nigeria through Ministry of Agriculture should provide more incentives geared towards encouraging increased participation of the organized private sector in cocoa production.

scholarly journals Detection of Tea Export Potentiality from Bangladesh in the World Market: An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 21-29
Author(s):  
A. U. Noman ◽  
S. Majumder ◽  
M. F. Imam ◽  
M. J. Hossain ◽  
F. Elahi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
World Market ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
The World

Export plays an important role in promoting economic growth and development. The study is conducted to make an efficient forecasting of tea export from Bangladesh for mitigating the risk of export in the world market. Forecasting has been done by fitting Box-Jenkins type autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The best ARIMA model is selected by comparing the criteria- coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). Among the Box-Jenkins ARIMA type models for tea export the ARIMA (1,1,3) model is the most appropriate one for forecasting and the forecast values in thousand kilogram for the year 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22, are 1096.48, 812.83, 1122.02, 776.25 and 794.33 with upper limit 1819.70, 1348.96, 1862.09, 1288.25, 1318.26 and lower limit 660.69, 489.78, 676.08, 467.74, 478.63, respectively. So, the result of this model may be helpful for the policymaker to make an export development plan for the country.

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