Probabilistic assessment of earthquake-induced sliding displacements of natural slopes

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen M. Rathje ◽  
Gokhan Saygili
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Earthquake Magnitude ◽  
Motion Parameter ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Vector Model ◽  
Probabilistic Framework ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Ground Motion Parameter ◽  
Natural Slopes

The evaluation of earthquake-induced landslides in natural slopes is often based on an estimate of the permanent sliding displacement due to earthquake shaking. Current procedures for estimating sliding displacement do not rigorously account for the significant uncertainties present in the analysis. This paper presents a probabilistic framework for computing the annual rate of exceedance of different levels of displacement such that a hazard curve for sliding displacement can be developed. The analysis incorporates the uncertainties in the prediction of earthquake ground shaking, in the prediction of sliding displacement, and in the assessment of soil properties. Predictive models for sliding displacement that are appropriate for the probabilistic framework are presented. These models include a scalar model that predicts sliding displacement in terms of a single ground motion parameter (peak ground acceleration) and the earthquake magnitude, as well as a vector model that incorporates two ground motion parameters (peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity). The addition of a second ground motion parameter results in a significant reduction in the standard deviation of the sliding displacement prediction. Comparisons are made between displacement hazard curves developed from the current scalar and vector models and previously developed scalar models that do not include earthquake magnitude. Additionally, an approximation to the vector hazard assessment is presented and compared with the rigorous vector approach. Finally, the inclusion of the soil property uncertainty is shown to increase the mean hazard at a site.

Relationships between ground motion parameters and damaged buildings for 2016 Mw 6.4 Meinong, Taiwan Earthquake

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guan-Yi Song ◽  
Yih-Min Wu
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Ground Motion Parameters ◽  
Motion Parameters ◽  
Seismic Damage Assessment

<p>The relationships between ground motion parameters (including peak ground acceleration, PGA; peak ground velocity, PGV) and building damages are crucial to estimate the possible seismic losses for future destructive earthquakes. One such relationship had been established based on the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6). Since 2010, a new assessment system of seismic damaged buildings had been adopted in Taiwan. Damaged buildings are now classified into two categories, yellow-tagged buildings are amendable and red-tagged buildings may need to rebuild. Our main goal is to renew the relationship to better reflect the current status in Taiwan, both in the buildings and assessment system. 2016 Meinong earthquake (Mw=6.4) caused the most damaging buildings in Taiwan since 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. It’s an opportunity to combine ground motion data with building assessments for the new regression relationship. From the results, we find out that in the Meinong earthquake, the PGA seems to possess a higher correlation to the building damages, contrary to the previous studies. Further investigation suggests that it may be due to the biased sample size to the damaged buildings, that is, most of the damaged buildings tend to be lower.</p><p>Keywords: Hazard analysis, Peak ground acceleration, Peak ground velocity, Seismic damage assessment</p>

Attenuation of earthquake ground motion in Japan including deep focus events

1995 ◽  
Vol 85 (5) ◽  
pp. 1343-1358
Author(s):  
Gilbert L. Molas ◽  
Fumio Yamazaki
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Soil Classification ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Earthquake Ground Motion ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Attenuation Relations ◽  
Distance Dependence ◽  
Recording Station ◽  
Deep Focus

Abstract New attenuation equations for peak ground acceleration and velocity for Japan are developed. The equations are derived using extensive data recorded by the new JMA-87-type accelerometers, which do not require instrumental corrections that the older SMAC-type accelerometers do. Earthquakes with depths up to 200 km are used to make the equation applicable to subduction zone regions, which are common in Japan. Effects of depth and local site on the attenuation are considered simultaneously with the distance dependence and magnitude dependence using a two-stage regression procedure to separate the magnitude dependence from the distance dependence. Since the resulting normal equations become singular, an iterative partial regression algorithm is proposed. It is found that for the same magnitude and distance, peak ground motion increases as depth increases. The variation of the station coefficients with respect to the corresponding soil-type classification is quite wide. The station coefficients for the peak ground acceleration are found to be weakly correlated with the general soil classification, while a stronger correlation was found for the peak ground velocity. The resulting attenuation relations are given by log10PGA=0.206+0.477MJ−log10r−0.00144r−0.00144r+0.00311h+cia,log10PGV=−1.769+0.628MJ−log10r−0.00130r−0.00144r+0.00222h+civ, where PGA (cm/sec2) and PGV (cm/sec) are the larger of the peak accelerations and velocities from two horizontal components, MJ is the JMA magnitude, r is the closest distance to the fault rupture, h is the depth, and ci is the station coefficient of the recording station. The mean of the coefficients of the JMA stations is given by ci = 0.

scholarly journals Observations about the seismic response of RC buildings in Mexico City

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (2_suppl) ◽  
pp. 154-174
Author(s):  
Sergio Alcocer ◽  
Anahid Behrouzi ◽  
Sergio Brena ◽  
Kenneth J Elwood ◽  
Ayhan Irfanoglu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Response ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Mexico City ◽  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Structural Damage ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Rc Buildings ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Better Than

Over 2000 buildings were surveyed by members of the Colegio de Ingenieros (CICM) and Sociedad Mexicana de Ingenieria Estructural (SMIE) in Mexico City following the Puebla-Morelos Earthquake of 2017. This inventory of surveyed buildings included nearly 40 collapses and over 600 buildings deemed to have structural damage. Correlation of damage with peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), predominant spectral period, building location, and building properties including height, estimated stiffness, and presence of walls or retrofits was investigated for the surveyed buildings. The evidence available suggests that (1) ground motion intensity (PGV) drove the occurrence of damage and (2) buildings with more infill and stiff retrofit systems did better than other buildings.

scholarly journals Characteristics of the Strong Ground Motion from the 24th August 2016 Amatrice Earthquake

2016 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Pischiutta ◽  
Aybige Akinci ◽  
Luca Malagnini ◽  
André Herrero
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Normal Fault ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Rupture Directivity ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
North West ◽  
Motion Characteristics ◽  
2016 Amatrice Earthquake

<em>The 2016 August 24 Amatrice earthquake occurred at 03:36 local time in Central Apennines Italy with an epicentre at 43.36<sup>°</sup>E, 38.76<sup>°</sup>N, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), few kilometers north of the city of Amatrice. The earthquake ruptured a North-West (NW)–South-East (SE) oriented normal fault dipping toward the South-West (SW) (Scognamiglio et al., 2016). High values of peak ground acceleration (~0.45 g) were observed close to Amatrice (3 stations being few kilometer distances from the fault). The present study presents an overview of the main features of the seismic ground shaking during the Amatrice earthquake. We analyze the ground motion characteristics of the main shock in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and spectral accelerations (SA, 5 per cent of critical damping). In order to understand the characteristics of the ground motions induced by Amatrice earthquake, we also study the source-related effects relative to the fault rupture directivity.</em>

Correlation of spectral acceleration values of vertical and horizontal ground motion pairs

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 2112-2128
Author(s):  
Mohsen Kohrangi ◽  
Athanasios N Papadopoulos ◽  
Paolo Bazzurro ◽  
Dimitrios Vamvatsikos
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Coefficient Estimates ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Intensity Measures ◽  
Correlation Models ◽  
Horizontal Ground Motion ◽  
S Peak

We present correlation coefficient estimates between a number of ground motion intensity measures ( IMs), as measured from the NGA-West2 database, with focus on the correlation of vertical–vertical and vertical–horizontal ground motion components. The IMs considered include spectral accelerations with periods from 0.01 to 10 s, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and significant duration (for 5%–75% and 5%–95% definitions). To facilitate their use, parametric equations are also fitted to the correlation models. Finally, the dependence of the obtained correlation coefficients to magnitude, distance, and Vs30 is evaluated.

Seismic Ground Motion Hazard Assessment at a Site near a Segmented Subduction Zone: The Roseau Dam, Saint Lucia, West Indies

1994 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. P. Aspinall ◽  
J. B. Shepherd ◽  
G. Woo ◽  
A. Wightman ◽  
K. C. Rowley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
West Indies ◽  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Saint Lucia

The seismic hazard at the site of a new dam in Saint Lucia, West Indies, is evaluated probabilistically for engineering design purposes. The assessment takes advantage of recent high quality regional seismological data, reappraised older instrumental catalogues and current tectonic interpretations. Saint Lucia stands at a position in the Lesser Antilles island arc where two distinct, seismically active, subduction zones appear to converge at different depths. As a result, the seismic hazard is critically dependent on site position relative to the boundaries of these major source zones, which each exhibit different activity rates. The ground motion hazard at the damsite is computed using the probabilistic logic-tree program PRISK, which accepts weighted input parameter distributions and is also able to model complex source geometries such as those needed to realistically represent a subduction zone. At an exceedance probability of 2×10−3 per annum, the expected peak ground acceleration on rock at the site is 0.27g, and the expected peak ground velocity is 12.9 cm/sec. At an exceedance probability of 10−4 per annum, the expected peak ground acceleration on rock at the site is 0.51g, and the expected peak ground velocity is 29.1 cm/sec. The major contributor to the seismic hazard is a large magnitude earthquake occurring in the northern segment of the Lesser Antilles subduction zone. Sensitivity tests show that the results are stable in the face of rational variations in the seismicity parameters but the hazard values are dependent on the choice of attenuation relationship which, in the absence of local information, has to be adopted from other subduction zone areas. The PGA obtained in this study is markedly higher than the value suggested in current regional code recommendations.

scholarly journals Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Tianshui Urban Area, Gansu Province, China

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenming Wang ◽  
David T. Butler ◽  
Edward W. Woolery ◽  
Lanmin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Design ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Gansu Province ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Acceleration Time Histories

A scenario seismic hazard analysis was performed for the city of Tianshui. The scenario hazard analysis utilized the best available geologic and seismological information as well as composite source model (i.e., ground motion simulation) to derive ground motion hazards in terms of acceleration time histories, peak values (e.g., peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity), and response spectra. This study confirms that Tianshui is facing significant seismic hazard, and certain mitigation measures, such as better seismic design for buildings and other structures, should be developed and implemented. This study shows that PGA of 0.3 g (equivalent to Chinese intensity VIII) should be considered for seismic design of general building and PGA of 0.4 g (equivalent to Chinese intensity IX) for seismic design of critical facility in Tianshui.

Numerical Modeling of Near Fault Seismic Ground Motion for Denali Fault

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Numerical Results ◽  
Fault Rupture ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Denali Fault ◽  
Near Fault ◽  
Good Agreement

An effective earthquake (Mw 7.9) struck Alaska on 3 November, 2002. This earthquake ruptured 340 km along Susitna Glacier, Denali and Totschunda faults in central Alaska. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) was recorded about 0.32 g at station PS10, which was located 3 km from the fault rupture. The PGA would have recorded a high value, if more instruments had been installed in the region. A numerical study has been conducted to find out the possible ground motion record that could occur at maximum horizontal slip during the Denali earthquake. The current study overcomes the limitation of number of elements to model the Denali fault. These numerical results are compared with observed ground motions. It is observed that the ground motions obtained through numerical analysis are in good agreement with observed ground motions. From numerical results, it is observed that the possible expected PGA is 0.62 g at maximum horizontal slip of Denali fault.

NGA-Subduction research program

2021 ◽  
pp. 875529302110560
Author(s):  
Yousef Bozorgnia ◽  
Norman A Abrahamson ◽  
Sean K Ahdi ◽  
Timothy D Ancheta ◽  
Linda Al Atik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Research Program ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Specific Model ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Motion Data ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Aleatory Variability ◽  
Adjustment Factors

This article summarizes the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) Subduction (NGA-Sub) project, a major research program to develop a database and ground motion models (GMMs) for subduction regions. A comprehensive database of subduction earthquakes recorded worldwide was developed. The database includes a total of 214,020 individual records from 1,880 subduction events, which is by far the largest database of all the NGA programs. As part of the NGA-Sub program, four GMMs were developed. Three of them are global subduction GMMs with adjustment factors for up to seven worldwide regions: Alaska, Cascadia, Central America and Mexico, Japan, New Zealand, South America, and Taiwan. The fourth GMM is a new Japan-specific model. The GMMs provide median predictions, and the associated aleatory variability, of RotD50 horizontal components of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at oscillator periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. Three GMMs also quantified “within-model” epistemic uncertainty of the median prediction, which is important in regions with sparse ground motion data, such as Cascadia. In addition, a damping scaling model was developed to scale the predicted 5%-damped PSA of horizontal components to other damping ratios ranging from 0.5% to 30%. The NGA-Sub flatfile, which was used for the development of the NGA-Sub GMMs, and the NGA-Sub GMMs coded on various software platforms, have been posted for public use.

scholarly journals Vertical Seismic Effect on the Seismic Fragility of Large-Space Underground Structures

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiming He ◽  
Qingjun Chen
Keyword(s):  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Underground Structure ◽  
Seismic Effect ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Seismic Fragility ◽  
Vertical Acceleration ◽  
Underground Structures ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Large Space

The measured vertical peak ground acceleration was larger than the horizontal peak ground acceleration. It is essential to consider the vertical seismic effect in seismic fragility evaluation of large-space underground structures. In this research, an approach is presented to construct fragility curves of large-space underground structures considering the vertical seismic effect. In seismic capacity, the soil-underground structure pushover analysis method which considers the vertical seismic loading is used to obtain the capacity curve of central columns. The thresholds of performance levels are quantified through a load-drift backbone curve model. In seismic demand, it is evaluated through incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method under the excitation of horizontal and vertical acceleration, and the soil-structure-interaction and ground motion characteristics are also considered. The IDA results are compared in terms of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. To construct the fragility curves, the evolutions of performance index versus the increasing earthquake intensity are performed, considering related uncertainties. The result indicates that if we ignore the vertical seismic effect to the fragility assessment of large-space underground structures, the exceedance probabilities of damage of large-space underground structures will be underestimated, which will result in an unfavorable assessment result.

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