scholarly journals Causal Nexus between Billing Efficiency and Economic Growth in India: An Analysis Using Vector Autoregression

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 184
Author(s):  
Asit Ranjan Mohanty ◽  
Devtosh Chaturvedi ◽  
Suresh Kumar Patra
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Causal Nexus ◽  
Annual Time

Energy being a major factor of production plays a pivotal role in inducing a sustained and high economic growth of an economy. This paper attempts to examine the Vector Autoregression (VAR) based Granger causality between billing efficiency and growth rate of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of India using annual time series data for the period 1970-71 to 2014-15. The conventional Augmented Dicky-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests reveal that both the series are non-stationary and individually integrated of order one. Johansen-Juselius cointegration approach finds no evidence on the long-run equilibrium association between these variables. However, the VAR - based Granger causality approach reveals unidirectional causality running from billing efficiency to economic growth without any feedback effect. As regards policy implication, implementation of both the short term and long term measures in improving billing efficiency, through the enhancement of commercial and operational efficiency in electricity distribution sector will undoubtedly aid in achieving sustained and high economic growth in India.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

Modelling the Nexus Between Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: A Case of Afghanistan and Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath ◽  
Ubaid Mushtaq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
And Control

This paper tries to explore the existence of a long-run relationship between foreign aid and economic growth by using the data from the two highest foreign aid recipient countries. Using the annual time series data from 1965 to 2017 this study uses several econometric models such as Johansen and Juselius cointegration, Granger causality and vector auto regression to establish the long and short-run relationships among foreign aid inflows and economic growth while also considering financial development and trade openness from both the countries. The empirical results suggest that no long-run relationship exists among foreign aid inflows and economic growth for both the countries. However, unidirectional causality running from foreign aid to economic growth is indicative in both countries. Therefore, the findings in this paper support the adequate need for foreign aid for effective economic growth amid an upright policy environment, related issues of conditionality and political stability. Our results are robust to independent, and control variables and estimation techniques are also on par with robustness.

scholarly journals BANKING SECTOR LIBERALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najia SAQIB
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
The Impact

Economic theory suggests that sound and efficient financial systems channel capitals to its most productive uses are beneficial for economic growth. Sound and efficient financial systems are especially important for sustaining growth in developing countries. This paper examines the impact of banking sector liberalization on long-term economic growth in Pakistan by using a time series data for the period 1971–2011. The results show that there exist a significant positive long run relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in the country. The sensitivity analysis also shows that the relationship remain positive and significant no matter what combination of the omitted variables are used in the basic model. Thus, our findings support the core idea that banking sector development stimulates long term economic growth in a country.

scholarly journals Impact of Economic Reforms, FDI and Imports on GDP: Trends and Regression Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 20-25
Author(s):  
Preeti Sharma ◽  
Priyanka Sahni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test

The aim of this study is to explore the causal relationship between the exports, imports and economic growth of Chinese economy using time series data running from 1978 to 2016.Co integration, Granger Causality analysis and Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) has been used in order to test the hypotheses about the presence of causality and co integration among the variables. The co integration test confirmed that exports, imports and GDP are co integrated, indicating an existence of long run equilibrium relationship among the variables and also confirmed by the Johansen co integration test results. The Granger causality test finally confirmed the presence of bi-directional causality between exports, imports and GDP. The study further shows that relative share of china’s exports in world exports has increased significantly after the introduction of economic reforms. Further, the rising exports have also made a significant contribution to the economic growth of Chinese economy due to forward and backward linkages.

scholarly journals LONG-RUN MONEY AND INFLATION NEUTRALITY TEST IN INDONESIA

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-99
Author(s):  
Arintoko Arintoko
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Money Stock ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper investigates long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Indonesia, with due consideration to the order of integration, exogeneity, and cointegration of the money stock-real output and the money stock-price, using annual time-series data. The Fisher-Seater methodology is used to do the task in this research. The empirical results indicate that evidence rejected the long-run neutrality of money (both defined as M1 and M2) with respect to real GDP, showing that it is inconsistent with the classical and neoclassical economics. However, the positive link between the money and price in long run holds for money defined as M1 rather than M2, which consistent with these theories. In particular, besides the positive effect to long-run inflation, monetary expansions have long-run positive effect on real output in the Indonesian economy.JEL Classification: C32, E31, E51Keywords: long-run neutrality of money, inflation, unit root, exogeneity, cointegration

scholarly journals Tourism And Economic Growth In Kenya: An Empirical Investigation

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Obadiah N. Kibara ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo ◽  
Josephine M. Njuguna
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Critical Question ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series

In this study, we examine the dynamic relationship between tourism sector development and economic growth using annual time-series data from Kenya. The study attempts to answer one critical question - Is tourism development in Kenya pro-growth? The study uses an ARDL-bounds testing approach to examine these linkages and also incorporates trade as an intermittent variable between tourism development and economic growth in a multivariate setting. The results of our study show that there is a uni-directional causality from tourism development to economic growth. The results are found to hold irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short run and long run. Other results show that international tourism Granger-causes trade, while trade Granger-causes economic growth in Kenya in both the short and the long run.

scholarly journals Prospects of the Nigeria Brewery Industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-24
Author(s):  
Paul A. Ugboya ◽  
Martins A. Odiamenhi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The Future ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time

This study analyses the economics and determinants of a brewery industry (Guinness Nigeria Limited) with a view of establishing the future of breweries in Nigeria. The specific objectives were to estimate the factors influencing products production and determine the viability of products manufactured by the company. Multiple regression and the ordinary least square techniques were used to analyse the long-term (2006 - 2015) annual time series data observed for the study. The results showed that the major determinant of Stout, Harp and Malt production is demanded. As a significant input, it positively influences product production. The observed values of regression coefficients (R2) are 0.99349 (for Stout), 0.90981 (for Harp), and 0.99498 (for Malt), which indicates that they are reliable for determining the future of Guinness Nigeria Ltd. The results also showed that logarithm of demand for Stout production (LstoutD) of 13.5277, LharpD of 21.8439 and LmaltD of 12.2653 were projected respectively up to the year 2025, an indication that brewery production in the state is viable and that future is bright.

scholarly journals FOREIGN INVESTMENT INFLOWS AND THE STRUGGLE FOR A RENEWED ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: AN ECONOMETRIC STUDY

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 88-103
Author(s):  
Aderopo Raphael Adediyan ◽  
Emmanuel Ekomoezor
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series

This study attempts to find answer to the question of whether Nigeria should intensify effort to draw home more foreign investment; would more of foreign investment inflows accelerate Nigeria economic performance? Methodologically, annual time series data from 1986 to 2018 was analyzed using ARDL approach. The key findings are that, although FDI has long-run positive impact on economic growth, FPI has no operational effect on the growth; this is true of FPI both in the long-run and short-run. Furthermore, labour force and trade openness were found to have long-run and short-run positive impact on growth. Hence, government must tactically open up economy to trans-border trade, increase labour supply and intensify effort to attract more FDI.

scholarly journals An Analysis of Exports and Imports and Their Effect on the Economic Growth in Iraq

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 68-76
Author(s):  
Shene Abdulla ◽  
Hazhar Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Different Levels

The Iraqi economy faces more challenges than opportunities, especially in recent years due to the civil war, while basic reforms for merging the private and public sector have commenced. This paper examines the causal relationship between exports, imports, and Iraq’s economic growth. The data are annual time series for the period 1980-2017. Thereafter, the data are stationary in different levels. Johansen cointegration is applied to figure out the long-run association among the variables. Moreover, Granger causality test has been used to direct the causality among variables. This paper finds that in the long run, exports and imports on gross domestic product are co-integrated and variables have a long-run association. The Granger causality result shows that exports affect economic growth, while imports also have a positive impact on Iraq’s economic growth. On the contrary, the relationship between exports and imports show that any increase in the volume of exports will increase the volume of imports. However, the converse is not true as the volume of imports does not influence exports in Iraq.

scholarly journals The Small and Medium Enterprises and Poverty in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sharafat Ali
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Medium Enterprises ◽  
Small Scale Industries ◽  
Annual Time

Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) have got very much importance in the economic growth, employment generation and poverty alleviation in the economy. The annual time series data is used for examination of impact of SMEs on poverty in Pakistan for the period of 1972-2008. The study utilizes Johansen cointegration and error correction mechanism to examine long run and short impacts small scale industries and other explanatory variable on poverty in Pakistan. The results of the study confirm a strong and poverty alleviating impact of small scale industries’ output in Pakistan. The study the economic policy makers to focus on the establishment of formal financial markets to overcome the financial constraints faced by the SME sector in Pakistan. Simplification of lending procedures, enforcement of credit rights, and reduction in credit costs would be helpful for the establishment of robust SME sector in Pakistan.

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