IS THE SOCCER BETTING MARKET EFFICIENT? A CROSS-COUNTRY INVESTIGATION USING THE FIBONACCI STRATEGY

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 29-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ender Demir ◽  
Hakan Danis ◽  
Ugo Rigoni
Keyword(s):  
Value At Risk ◽  
Fibonacci Sequence ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
The Core ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
The World ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Positive Return

The sports betting industry is one of the fastest growing industries in the world and therefore the literature on sports betting has gained momentum in the last two decades. The literature mainly focuses on testing the efficiency of the sports betting market. The prediction of game outcomes or comparing the odds of bookmakers by predicted odds and the search for betting strategies which yield significant positive returns have been the core of the market efficiency tests. This study, instead of making any predictions or generating odds to be compared by bookmakers’ odds, implements the Fibonacci sequence on draws as a betting rule for 8 European soccer leagues for the seasons from 2005/2006 to 2008/2009. As the odds offered by bookmakers are narrowly distributed, implementing the Fibonacci strategy for 8 soccer leagues of Europe for 4 seasons yields positive return for all cases and also controlling with simulated data the strategy is found to be in most circumstances profitable. The results indicate that the bookmakers are inefficient in terms of predicting the draws and the soccer betting markets are inefficient. Therefore, the betters could exploit this inefficiency by following Fibonacci strategy assuming they have enough financial liquidity. Furthermore, we calculate the capital needed to pursue the strategy resorting to the Value at Risk (VaR) methodology and reveal that the VaR is only 143€ (assuming that the first bet is 1€) at 95% confidence level.

AN EXAMINATION OF IN-PLAY SPORTS BETTING USING ONE-DAY CRICKET MATCHES

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-109
Author(s):  
Steve Easton ◽  
Katherine Uylangco
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Psychological Factors ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Informational Efficiency ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
Betting Odds

There is a wide literature on sports betting markets, a literature that examines the informational efficiency of these markets and uses them as laboratories to test for possible impacts of psychological factors on financial markets. The innovation of this study is the examination of price behaviour in an in-play betting market – namely that for one-day cricket. Cricket provides an ideal construct in which to examine in-play market behaviour, as it is a sport where outcomes can be calibrated as good news or bad news on a play-by-play basis. The results from an examination of over 8000 balls corresponding to over 8000 “news events” shows that the in-play betting market is one in which news is impounded rapidly into betting odds. There is also evidence that odds have a level of predictive ability with respect to outcomes from balls before they are bowled. Further, there is evidence of a drift in odds subsequent to the outcome of balls being known.

REVISITING THE “HOT HAND” HYPOTHESIS IN THE NBA BETTING MARKET USING ACTUAL SPORTSBOOK BETTING PERCENTAGES ON FAVORITES AND UNDERDOGS

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodney J Paul ◽  
Andrew P Weinbach ◽  
Brad Humphreys
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Professional Basketball ◽  
The Public ◽  
Behavioral Bias ◽  
Hot Hand ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Closing Price ◽  
Betting Markets

The “hot hand” hypothesis was first investigated in sports betting markets by Camerer (1989) and Brown and Sauer (1993), who examined if professional basketball teams truly could become “hot”, implying a change in their actual skill level, and if the betting market believes teams become “hot” and over bet the teams on winning streaks.   Both assumed that book makers operated a balanced book.  Recent evidence suggests that book makers do not set point spreads to balance betting on either side of games.  Book makers may price as a forecast or shade point spreads to exploit known biases.  The “hot hand” could exist, but closing point spreads may not reflect this bias due to an unbalanced book.   Using a 6 season sample of NBA betting market data, we show wagering against the “hot hand” does not win more than implied by efficiency.  However, OLS and two-stage least squares regression models show that bettors believe in the hot hand, as teams on streaks attract a significantly higher number of bets.  This illustrates that the public believes in the hot hand, reflecting an actual behavioral bias.  This bias exists even though the closing price serves as an optimal and unbiased forecast of outcomes.

Analyzing Information Efficiency in the Betting Market for Association Football League Winners

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 55-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars Magnus Hvattum
Keyword(s):  
Sports Betting ◽  
Information Efficiency ◽  
Association Football ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Betting Markets

Sports betting markets have attracted a fair amount of research over the years. For association football, most of this research has focused on predicting the outcome of single matches and hence on the evaluating the efficiency of the match results betting markets. This paper presents a study on the betting market for league winners, a market that operates for almost a full year and therefore operates under different conditions than the relatively short-lived match results markets. Attempts are made to analyze both weak and semi-strong forms of information efficiency. Although the results are mixed, there are some indications that the market is inefficient with respect to both forms of information.

scholarly journals The Fibonacci Strategy Revisited: Can You Really Make Money by Betting on Soccer Draws?

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 72-77
Author(s):  
Jiří Lahvička
Keyword(s):  
Fibonacci Sequence ◽  
Real Data ◽  
The Other ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
Expected Values ◽  
Real Market ◽  
Positive Results

This article investigates the strategy of betting on soccer draws using the Fibonacci sequence. In the previous literature, this strategy has been found to be both simple and profitable in both simulated and real betting markets, indicating that the soccer betting market is not even weakly efficient. First, the behavior of the Fibonacci strategy is analyzed in a simulated strongly efficient market. It is shown that the strategy is not and cannot be profitable in such a market; however, it could still be profitable in a real market under the following two conditions: first, some bets on draws have positive expected values; second, the amounts bet on such matches are high enough to more than compensate for expected losses from the other bets. This could happen if bookmakers underestimated the probability of a draw after a long string of non-drawn matches. The strategy is therefore tested on a real data set of almost 60,000 European soccer matches. Contrary to the previous findings, all tested versions of the Fibonacci betting strategy are found to lose money. The previous positive results could be explained by a very low number of trials.

scholarly journals Are Sports Bettors Biased toward Longshots, Favorites, or Both? A Literature Review

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Philip W. S. Newall ◽  
Dominic Cortis
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
Potential Outcomes ◽  
Horse Racing ◽  
Multiple Outcomes ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
Individual Sports ◽  
High Chance

A large body of literature on the favorite–longshot bias finds that sports bettors in a variety of markets appear to have irrational biases toward either longshots (which offer a small chance of winning a large amount of money) or favorites (which offer a high chance of winning a small amount of money). While early studies in horse racing led to an impression that longshot bias is dominant, favorite bias has also now been found in a variety of sports betting markets. This review proposes that the evidence is consistent with both biases being present in the average sports bettor. Sports betting markets with only two potential outcomes, where the favorite therefore has a probability >0.5 of happening, often produce favorite bias. Sports betting markets with multiple outcomes, where the favorite’s probability is usually <0.5, appear more consistent with longshot bias. The presence of restricted odds ranges within any given betting market provides an explanation for why single studies support, at most, one bias. This literature review highlights how individual sports bettors might possess biases toward both highly likely, and highly unlikely, events, a contradictory view that has not been summarized in detail before.

Jalan Kesempurnaan Menurut Jamaah Insan Al-Kamil di Cijati Desa Cikareo Selatan Sumedang

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-37
Author(s):  
Syarifudin Syarifudin
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Method ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
The Core ◽  
The World ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Religious Sect ◽  
Descriptive Qualitative

Each religious sect has its own characteristics, whether fundamental, radical, or religious. One of them is Insan Al-Kamil Congregation, which is in Cijati, South Cikareo Village, Wado District, Sumedang Regency. This congregation is Sufism with the concept of self-purification as the subject of its teachings. So, the purpose of this study is to reveal how the origin of Insan Al-Kamil Congregation, the concept of its purification, and the procedures of achieving its purification. This research uses a descriptive qualitative method with a normative theological approach as the blade of analysis. In addition, the data generated is the result of observation, interviews, and document studies. From the collected data, Jamaah Insan Al-Kamil adheres to the core teachings of Islam and is the tenth regeneration of Islam Teachings, which refers to the Prophet Muhammad SAW. According to this congregation, self-perfection becomes an obligation that must be achieved by human beings in order to remember Allah when life is done. The process of self-purification is done when human beings still live in the world by knowing His God. Therefore, the peak of self-purification is called Insan Kamil. 

STUDI ANALISIS DAMPAK PADEMI COVID-19 TERHADAP EKSISTENSI PEMBELAJARAN PENDIDIKAN AGAMA ISLAM DI INDONESIA

Edupedia ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-53
Author(s):  
Ilzam Dhaifi
Keyword(s):  
Online Education ◽  
Religious Education ◽  
Virtual Classroom ◽  
Education Services ◽  
Religious Consciousness ◽  
The Core ◽  
Equal Education ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government

The world has been surprised by the emergence of a COVID 19 pandemic, was born in China, and widespread to various countries in the world. In Indonesia, the government issued several policies to break the COVID 19 pandemic chain, which also triggered some pro-cons in the midst of society. One of the policies government takes is the closure of learning access directly at school and moving the learning process from physical class to a virtual classroom or known as online learning. In the economic sector also affects the parents’ financial ability to provide sufficient funds to support the implementation of distance learning applied by the government. The implications of the distance education policy are of course the quality of learning, including the subjects of Islamic religious education, which is essentially aimed at planting knowledge, skills, and religious consciousness to form the character of the students. Online education must certainly be precise, in order to provide equal education services to all students, prepare teachers to master the technology, and seek the core learning of Islamic religious education can still be done well.

Ups and Downs

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roy Livermore
Keyword(s):  
Mantle Convection ◽  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Computer Modelling ◽  
Great Depth ◽  
New Horizons ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The World ◽  
The 1960S

Despite the dumbing-down of education in recent years, it would be unusual to find a ten-year-old who could not name the major continents on a map of the world. Yet how many adults have the faintest idea of the structures that exist within the Earth? Understandably, knowledge is limited by the fact that the Earth’s interior is less accessible than the surface of Pluto, mapped in 2016 by the NASA New Horizons spacecraft. Indeed, Pluto, 7.5 billion kilometres from Earth, was discovered six years earlier than the similar-sized inner core of our planet. Fortunately, modern seismic techniques enable us to image the mantle right down to the core, while laboratory experiments simulating the pressures and temperatures at great depth, combined with computer modelling of mantle convection, help identify its mineral and chemical composition. The results are providing the most rapid advances in our understanding of how this planet works since the great revolution of the 1960s.

Societal Drivers of Food and Water Systems 1

2018 ◽  
pp. 284-301
Author(s):  
Michael Thompson ◽  
M. Bruce Beck ◽  
Dipak Gyawali
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Phones ◽  
Wastewater Treatment Plants ◽  
Water Systems ◽  
Food Chains ◽  
Material Flows ◽  
The Core ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
The World ◽  
Nitrogen Phosphorus ◽  
Plural Rationality

Food chains interact with the vast, complex, and tangled webs of material flows —nitrogen, phosphorus, carbon, water, energy—circling the globe. Cities and households are where those material flows interact with the greatest intensity. At every point within these webs and chains, technologies enable them to function: from bullock-drawn ploughs, to mobile phones, to container ships, to wastewater treatment plants. Drawing on the theory of plural rationality, we show how the production and consumption of food and water in households and societies can be understood as occurring according to four institutionally induced styles: four basic ways of understanding the world and acting within it; four ways of living with one another and with nature. That there are four is due to the theory of plural rationality at the core of this chapter.

scholarly journals The Core of the Global Corporate Network

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Giglio ◽  
Thomas Lux
Keyword(s):  
Network Topology ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Core ◽  
Comprehensive Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Corporate Network ◽  
Board Membership ◽  
National Networks ◽  
Wide Population

AbstractWe investigate the network topology of a comprehensive data set of the world-wide population of corporate entities. In particular, we have extracted information on the boards of all companies listed in Bloomberg’s archive of company profiles in October, 2015, a total of almost 100,000 firms. We provide information on board membership overlaps at various levels, and, in particular, show that there exists a core of directors who accumulate a large number of seats and are highly connected among themselves both at the level of national networks and at the worldwide aggregated level.

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