scholarly journals Regional-Scale Assessment of the Climatic Role of Forests Under Future Climate Conditions

10.5772/33260 ◽  
2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Borbla Glos ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Regional Scale ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Scale Assessment

Enhanced carbon release under future climate conditions in a peatland mesocosm experiment: the role of phenolic compounds

2015 ◽  
Vol 400 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 81-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine M. Dieleman ◽  
Brian A. Branfireun ◽  
James W. McLaughlin ◽  
Zoë Lindo
Keyword(s):  
Phenolic Compounds ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Mesocosm Experiment ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Carbon Release

scholarly journals Extended Dependence of the Hydrological Regime on the Land Cover Change in the Three-North Region of China: An Evaluation under Future Climate Conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Yao ◽  
Xianhong Xie ◽  
Shanshan Meng ◽  
Bowen Zhu ◽  
Kang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Ecological Restoration ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Hydrological Effects

The hydrological regime in arid and semi-arid regions is quite sensitive to climate and land cover changes (LCC). The Three-North region (TNR) in China experiences diverse climate conditions, from arid to humid zones. In this region, substantial LCC has occurred over the past decades due to ecological restoration programs and urban expansion. At a regional scale, the hydrological effects of LCC have been demonstrated to be less observable than the effects of climate change, but it is unclear whether or not the effects of LCC may be intensified by future climate conditions. In this study, we employed remote sensing datasets and a macro-scale hydrological modeling to identify the dependence of the future hydrological regime of the TNR on past LCC. The hydrological effects over the period from 2020–2099 were evaluated based on a Representative Concentration Pathway climate scenario. The results indicated that the forest area increased in the northwest (11,691 km2) and the north (69 km2) of China but declined in the northeast (30,042 km2) over the past three decades. Moreover, the urban area has expanded by 1.3% in the TNR. Under the future climate condition, the hydrological regime will be influenced significantly by LCC. Those changes from 1986 to 2015 may alter the future hydrological cycle mainly by promoting runoff (3.24 mm/year) and decreasing evapotranspiration (3.23 mm/year) over the whole region. The spatial distribution of the effects may be extremely uneven: the effects in humid areas would be stronger than those in other areas. Besides, with rising temperatures and precipitation from 2020 to 2099, the LCC may heighten the risk of dryland expansion and flooding more than climate change alone. Despite uncertainties in the datasets and methods, the regional-scale hydrological model provides new insights into the extended impacts of ecological restoration and urbanization on the hydrological regime of the TNR.

scholarly journals Potential impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two wild vectors of Chagas disease in Chile: Mepraia spinolai and Mepraia gajardoi

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rubén Garrido ◽  
Antonella Bacigalupo ◽  
Francisco Peña-Gómez ◽  
Ramiro O. Bustamante ◽  
Pedro E. Cattan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Chagas Disease ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Pacific Side ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Risk Situation

Abstract Background Mepraia gajardoi and Mepraia spinolai are endemic triatomine vector species of Trypanosoma cruzi, a parasite that causes Chagas disease. These vectors inhabit arid, semiarid and Mediterranean areas of Chile. Mepraia gajardoi occurs from 18° to 25°S, and M. spinolai from 26° to 34°S. Even though both species are involved in T. cruzi transmission in the Pacific side of the Southern Cone of South America, no study has modelled their distributions at a regional scale. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the potential geographical distribution of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi under current and future climate scenarios. Methods We used the Maxent algorithm to model the ecological niche of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi, estimating their potential distributions from current climate information and projecting their distributions to future climatic conditions under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Future predictions of suitability were constructed considering both higher and lower public health risk situations. Results The current potential distributions of both species were broader than their known ranges. For both species, climate change projections for 2070 in RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios showed different results depending on the methodology used. The higher risk situation showed new suitable areas, but the lower risk situation modelled a net reduction in the future potential distribution areas of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi. Conclusions The suitable areas for both species may be greater than currently known, generating new challenges in terms of vector control and prevention. Under future climate conditions, these species could modify their potential geographical range. Preventive measures to avoid accidental human vectorial transmission by wild vectors of T. cruzi become critical considering the uncertainty of future suitable areas projected in this study.

scholarly journals Process based inventory of isoprenoid emissions from European forests: model comparisons, current knowledge and uncertainties

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 4053-4076 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Keenan ◽  
Ü. Niinemets ◽  
S. Sabate ◽  
C. Gracia ◽  
J. Peñuelas
Keyword(s):  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
European Forests ◽  
Isoprenoid Emissions

Abstract. Large uncertainties exist in our knowledge of regional emissions of non-methane biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC). We address these uncertainties through a two-pronged approach by compiling a state of the art database of the emissions potentials for 80 European forest species, and by a model assessment and inter-comparison, both at the local and regional scale, under present and projected future climatic conditions. We coupled three contrasting isoprenoid models with the ecophysiological forest model GOTILWA+ to evaluate leaf and ecosystem isoprenoid emissions, build an emissions inventory for European forests, and to consider model behaviour in present climate and under projected future climate change conditions. Hourly, daily and annual isoprene emissions as simulated by the models were evaluated against flux measurements. The validation highlighted a general model capacity to capture gross fluxes but inefficiencies in capturing short term variability. A regional inventory of isoprenoid emissions for European forests was created using each of the three modelling approaches. The models agreed on an average European emissions budget of 1.03 TgC a−1 for isoprene and 0.97 TgC a−1 for monoterpenes for the period 1960–1990, which was dominated by a few species with largest aerial coverage. Species contribution to total emissions depended both on species emission potential and geographical distribution. For projected future climate conditions, however, emissions budgets proved highly model dependent, illustrating the current uncertainty associated with isoprenoid emissions responses to potential future conditions. These results suggest that current model estimates of isoprenoid emissions concur well, but future estimates are highly uncertain. We conclude that development of reliable models is highly urgent, but for the time being, future BVOC emission scenario estimates should consider results from an ensemble of available emission models.

Assessing the role of internal variability on projections of Northern Europe surface air-temperature at near-term (2020-2039) using a storyline approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélien Liné ◽  
Christophe Cassou ◽  
Rym Msadek
Keyword(s):  
Regional Scale ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
Near Term

<p>Despite ever-increasing anthropogenic forcing due to continuing GHG emissions, a slowdown in the rate of global warming has been monitored in the early 2000s and has been mostly attributed to the effect of internal climate variability. The weight of internal variability with respect to external forcing increases at regional scale and it is crucial to understand and quantify its role in future climate outcomes. In this study, we assess the near-term climate change over Europe by contrasting a suite of large ensemble of socio-economic pathways (SSP) projections conducted over 2020-2039, with historical simulations over 1995-2014 used as reference. The uncertainty associated with future anthropogenic forcing is taken into account by analysing 4 SSP projections (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), while the one associated with internal variability is assessed through the large ensembles of 30 members. Projections averaged over 4 SSP give a mean warming of +1.1°C over Northern Europe in Dec-Feb winter, as quantified by the difference between 20-yr averages over 2020-2039 compared to present-day (1995-2014). Since the signal (related to the forced response) to noise (related to internal variability) is small in all scenarios, ranging from 0.2 for SSP3-7.0 to 0.5 for SSP5-8.5, the 4 near-term ensembles are combined to create a super ensemble of 120 members to further evaluate the role of internal variability, whose likely range, defined by the 5th and 95th percentiles, is equal to 3.0°C for the region of interest. We apply the so-called storyline paradigm and find 4 families of future outcome, each family corresponding to a couple of given phases of the two main drivers of internal variability for Northern Europe winter temperature, namely the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the north Atlantic oscillation (NAO). More than a statistical classification, these storylines provide physically consistent future outcomes. The storyline characterised by stronger AMOC and positive NAO leads to the strongest warming, +2.3°C (+1.7 to +3.0), and has a large increase in precipitation, +10% (+5.2 to +16), compared to the storyline where AMOC is reduced and the NAO negative, leading to +0.19°C (-0.46 to +0.86) and +1.9% (-3.3 to +11) for temperature and precipitation only. Regarding temperature extremes, we show, regardless of the scenario, a clear decrease in the probability of extremely cold days in the near-term, and a statistically significant increase in the frequency of extremely warm days that is expected to double. There is, however, a larger dependence of extremes to the storyline family. In particular, the probability of occurrence of exceptionally warm days, defined by the 99th percentile level, is 4 times more likely in the combined AMOC and NAO positive phases storylines, while it is almost null for the counterpart one. We show here evidence that the storyline approach is a clear added-value to understand the role of internal variability in future climate and that it provides actionable information to users in presence of related irreducible variability uncertainties.</p>

Problem of energy efficiency in the model of sustainable development in Ukraine: EU experience

2019 ◽  
pp. 18-23
Author(s):  
Vasyl Zelenko ◽  
Yaryna Ferenchak ◽  
Nataliya Zelenko
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Energy Saving ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
Efficiency Measures ◽  
Efficient Construction

The paper outlines major preconditions of development of energy efficiency programs and the process of their introduction from the perspective of sustainable development concept. Energy saving measures of European Union are examined, its experience and results, like green books and Thermie programs, etc are analyzed. The paper also specifies relevant activities and responsibilities undertaken by Member States by 2030 and the rates planned to be achieved. The experience of neighboring Poland in energy efficiency promotion is analyzed, as far as the country most closely resembles Ukraine by the initial rates in 1990. We calculated conditional losses of Ukraine in 2017 as the gap between the rates of energy efficiency of Ukraine and Poland (similarity of climate conditions and the state of housing funds allowed us to assume that the comparison will be the most correct regarding Ukraine). The results of calculations make us conclude that the funds are used most efficiently if the money designated, for example, for subsidizing of population are directed at strengthening of energy efficiency (at least up to the level of neighboring country). It will result in saving of about 40 billion. This is the amount defined as Ukrainian capacity in terms of improvement of energy saving and possible results of its realization. The paper determines the stage Ukraine is at in introduction of energy efficiency measures and programs: “warm loans” program; conditions regarding energy saving in Ukraine enshrined in the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement; creation of legal basis, namely the Law of Ukraine “On Energy Efficiency Fund” as of 8 June 2017. The role of newly created Energy Efficiency Fund is analyzed. Special attention is paid to the fact that energy efficient construction is one of international liabilities undertaken by Ukraine. The presence of The Active House Alliance at Ukrainian market is an important achievement in this sphere as it is the non-profit association aiming at creation of housing concept corresponding to the sustainable development principles.

Design of a rubble mound breakwater under the combined effect of wave heights and water levels, under present and future climate conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 112 ◽  
pp. 102711
Author(s):  
Soheil Radfar ◽  
Mehdi Shafieefar ◽  
Hassan Akbari ◽  
Panagiota A. Galiatsatou ◽  
Ahmad Rezaee Mazyak
Keyword(s):  
Water Levels ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Combined Effect ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Rubble Mound

scholarly journals Surveying Potential Vectors of Apple Proliferation Phytoplasma: Faunistic Analysis and Infection Status of Selected Auchenorrhyncha Species

Insects ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Stefanie Fischnaller ◽  
Martin Parth ◽  
Manuel Messner ◽  
Robert Stocker ◽  
Christine Kerschbamer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Records ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Insect Vectors ◽  
Infection Status ◽  
Apple Proliferation ◽  
Population Densities ◽  
South Tyrol ◽  
Candidatus Phytoplasma Mali ◽  
Cacopsylla Melanoneura

Apple proliferation (AP) is one of the economically most important diseases in European apple cultivation. The disease is caused by the cell-wall-less bacterium ’ Candidatus Phytoplasma mali’, which is transmitted by Cacopsylla picta (Foerster) and Cacopsylla melanoneura (Foerster) (Hemiptera: Psylloidea). In South Tyrol (Italy), severe outbreaks were documented since the 1990s. Infestation rates of AP do not always correlate with the population densities of the confirmed vectors, implying the presence of other, so far unknown, hemipterian vectors. By elucidating the species community of Auchenorrhyncha (Insecta: Hemiptera) at a regional scale, more than 31,000 specimens were captured in South Tyrolean apple orchards. The occurrence of 95 species was confirmed, whereas fourteen species are new records for this territory. Based on the faunistical data, more than 3600 individuals out of 25 species were analyzed using quantitative PCR to assess the presence of AP phytoplasma. The pathogen was sporadically detected in some individuals of different species, for example in Stictocephala bisonia Kopp and Yonk (Hemiptera: Membracidae). However, the concentration of phytoplasma was much lower than in infected C. picta and C. melanoneura captured in the same region, confirming the role of the latter mentioned psyllids as the main insect vectors of AP- phytoplasma in South Tyrol.

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