scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Civil Aircraft during Operation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Longbiao Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
System Structure ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Failure Risk ◽  
System Risk ◽  
Hazard Level ◽  
Aircraft System

In this chapter, the risk assessment methods for aircraft system, structure, and aeroengine are investigated. For the aircraft system risk assessment, the probability level is divided into probable, improbable, and extremely improbable, and the hazard level of the failure condition is divided into minor, major, and catastrophic. Using Weibull analysis and Bayesian method to analyze the aircraft operation data, the risk level of aircraft system can be determined by combing methods provided in AC 25.1309-1A. For the aircraft structure risk assessment, the probability fracture mechanics approach can be used to determine the structure failure risk based on the data of material properties, environment, inspection, and so on. For the aeroengine risk assessment, the methods for classification of failure risk level, determination of hazard ratio, and calculation of the risk factor and risk per flight are given. The risk assessment process for aeroengine multi-failure modes based on the Monte Carlo simulation is presented to predict the occurrence of the failure and assess the failure risk.

Risk assessment method for aeroengine multiple failure risk using Monte Carlo simulation

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 384-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Longbiao Li ◽  
Suyi Bi ◽  
Youchao Sun
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Present Method ◽  
Corrective Action ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Failure Risk ◽  
Aero Engine ◽  
Corrective Actions

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a method to predict the multi-failure risk of aero engine in service and to evaluate the effectiveness of different corrective actions. Design/methodology/approach – The classification of failure risk level, the determination of hazard ratio and the calculation of risk factor and the risk per flight have been proposed. The multi-failure risk assessment process of aero engine has been established to predict the occurrence of failure event and assess the failure risk level. According to the history aero engine failure data, the multi-failure risk, i.e., overheat, blade wounding, pump failure, blade crack, pipe crack and combustor crack, has been predicted considering with and without corrective action. Two corrective actions, i.e., reduce the maintenance interval and redesign the failure components, were adopted to analyze the decreasing of risk level. Findings – The multi-failure risk of aero engine with or without corrective action can be determined using the present method. The risk level of combustor crack decreases from high-risk level of 1.18×1e−9 without corrective action to acceptable risk level of 0.954×1e−9 by decreasing the maintenance interval from 1,000 to 800 h, or to 0.912×1e−9 using the redesign combustor. Research limitations/implications – It should be noted that probability of detection during maintenance actions has not been considered in the present analysis, which would affect the failure risk level of aero engine in service. Social implications – The method in the present analysis can be adapted to other types of failure modes which may cause significant safety or environment hazards, and used to determine the maintenance interval or choose appropriate corrective action to reduce the multi-failure risk level of aero engine. Originality/value – The maintenance interval or appropriate corrective action can be determined using the present method to reduce the multi-failure risk level of aero engine.

DEVELOPING A GUIDELINE FOR OIL SPILL RISK ASSESSMENT AND RESPONSE PLANNING FOR OFFSHORE INSTALLATIONS

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 (1) ◽  
pp. 314-327
Author(s):  
Torild Ronnaug Nissen-Lie ◽  
Odd Willy Brude ◽  
Ole Oystein Aspholm ◽  
Peter Mark Taylor ◽  
David Davidson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
Response Planning ◽  
Offshore Installations ◽  
Oil Spill Response

ABSTRACT Following the April 2010 Gulf of Mexico (Macondo) oil spill and the 2009 Montara incident in Australia, the International Association of Oil and Gas Producers (OGP) formed the Global Industry Response Group. This Group identified nineteen oil spill response recommendations (OGP, 2011) that are being addressed via an Oil Spill Response Joint Industry Project (OSR-JIP) during 2012–2014. The OSR-JIP is managed by IPIECA on behalf of OGP, in recognition of IPIECA's long-standing experience with oil spill response matters. One of the nineteen recommendations concerned the development of an international guideline for offshore oil spill risk assessment and a method to better relate oil spill response resources to the risk level. Consequently, the OSR-JIP has published a guideline covering oil spill risk assessment and response planning for offshore installations. This paper describes the development and content of the guideline, including how the oil spill risk assessment process provides structured and relevant information to oil spill response planning for offshore operations. The process starts by defining the context of the assessment and describing the activity to be assessed. Thereafter it addresses a series of key questions:What can go wrong, leading to potential release of oil?What happens to the spilled oil?What are the impacts on key environmental - both ecological and socio-economic - receptors?What is the risk for environmental damage?How is the established risk utilised in oil spill response planning? The guideline draws on existing good practices in the determination of oil spill response resources. It promotes consideration, in tactical and logistical detail, of the preferred and viable response strategies to address scenarios covering the range of potential oil spills up to the most serious. The methodology to evaluate the potential spill scenarios utilizes a series of questions:What are the viable techniques/strategies to deliver response with greatest net environment benefit?What are the tactical measures required to implement the identified response strategies, considering technical, practical and safety factors?What Tiered resources are required to mount the tactical measures and achieve effective response? The paper summarizes the useful tools, key information and the necessary level of detail essential to perform an oil spill risk assessment for use in oil spill response planning.

scholarly journals Manifestation of emergent properties in risk assessment of oil and gas companies

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 ◽  
pp. 08001
Author(s):  
Inesa Khvostina ◽  
Nataliia Havadzyn ◽  
Nataliia Yurchenko
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Emergent Properties ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Level Indicator ◽  
Original Algorithm

The article presents a study on risks in oil and gas industry and reveals their causes investigating enterprises activity as a result of emergent properties of systems. The original algorithm of risk assessment process based on emergent properties study is offered. A taxonomy approach and factor analysis are used for purposes of risk evaluation. The risk assessment consists of risks taxonomy, database structure development, identification of risks through impact factors evaluation; economic system emergent properties risks prediction, an integral risk level indicator calculation using taxonomy approach, correlation analysis of integral indicators of risk assessment, preventive measures for minimizing of negative impacts and reducing risks.

scholarly journals Árboles de decisión para la evaluación del riesgo biológico de procesos biofarmacéuticos. //Decision trees for the biological risk assessment in biopharmaceutical processes.

Ciencia Unemi ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (28) ◽  
pp. 8-17
Author(s):  
Pavel Novoa-Hernández ◽  
Dailín Cobos-Valdes ◽  
Eduardo Samaniego-Mena ◽  
Milvio Novoa-Pérez
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Trees ◽  
Supervised Classification ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Classification Models ◽  
Classification Problems ◽  
Biological Risk ◽  
New Model ◽  
Pharmaceutical Processes

En el presente trabajo se propone un nuevo modelo para la evaluación del riesgo biológico en procesos biofarmacéuticos. La propuesta extiende un modelo existente, aportando como principal novedad el tratamiento de las determinaciones de los niveles de consecuencia y probabilidad de riesgo, como problemas de clasificación supervisada. Específicamente, se obtuvieron modelos de clasificación basados en árboles de decisión que poseen como ventajas más importantes: 1) un número menor de indicadores para la determinación de consecuencias y probabilidades, 2) un orden de medición de los indicadores, basado en la importancia de los mismos. Con el objetivo de analizar las bondades del nuevo modelo, se consideraron tres casos de estudio relacionados con procesos farmacéuticos reales. En comparación con el modelo anterior, el nuevo ofrece resultados similares, pero facilitando notablemente el proceso de evaluación del riesgo biológico. AbstractA new model for assessing biological risk in biopharmaceutical process is proposed in the present work. This proposal extends an existing model including the handling of the consequence and probability levels computations as main novelty, and also as supervised classification problems. Specifically, two classification models based on decision trees were obtained, which gives as major advantages: 1) a lower number of indicators for the determination of consequence and probabilities, and 2) an order of measurement of the related indicators. In order to analyze the benefits of the new model, three real pharmaceutical processes were considered as cases studies. In comparison with the previous model, the new one offers similar results, but significantly facilitating the biological risk assessment process.

scholarly journals A Comprehensive Failure Risk Assessment Method of Machining Center Component Based on Topology Analysis

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 423
Author(s):  
Liming Mu ◽  
Yingzhi Zhang ◽  
Guiming Guo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Failure Mode ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Topology Analysis ◽  
Propagation Failure ◽  
Machining Center ◽  
Failure Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Influence Degree

The risk assessment of the failure mode of the traditional machining center component rarely considers the topological characteristics of the system and the influence of propagation risks, which makes the failure risk assessment results biased. Therefore, this paper proposes a comprehensive failure risk assessment method of a machining center component based on topology analysis. On the basis of failure mode and cause analysis, considering the correlation of failure modes, Analytic Network Process (ANP) is used to calculate the influence degree of failure modes, and it is combined with component failure mode frequency ratio and failure rate function to calculate independent failure risk. The ANP model of the machining center is transformed into a topological model, and the centrality measurement of network theory is used to analyze the topology of the machining center. The weight of the topological structure index is measured by subjective and objective weighting methods, and then the importance degree of the machining center component is calculated. In this paper, the coupling degree function is introduced to calculate the importance of the connection edge, which is combined with the failure probability to calculate the failure propagation influence degree, and the component propagation failure risk is calculated based on this. Finally, the independent failure risk and the propagation failure risk of the component are integrated to realize the failure risk assessment of the component. Taking a certain type of machining center as an example to illustrate the application, compared with the traditional assessment method, the effectiveness and advancement of the method proposed in this paper have been verified.

scholarly journals Modelling airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 using CARA: Risk assessment for enclosed spaces

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre Henriques ◽  
Nicolas Mounet ◽  
Luis Aleixo ◽  
Philip Elson ◽  
James Devine ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Natural Ventilation ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Critical Threshold ◽  
Respiratory Pathogens ◽  
Airborne Transmission ◽  
Protection Measure ◽  
Air Ventilation

The global crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for a proper risk assessment of respiratory pathogens in indoor settings. This paper documents the COVID Airborne Risk Assessment (CARA) methodology, to assess the potential exposure of airborne SARS-CoV-2 viruses, with an emphasis on the effect of certain virological and immunological factors in the quantification of the risk. The proposed model is the result of a multidisciplinary approach linking physical, mechanical and biological domains, benchmarked with clinical and experimental data, enabling decision makers or facility managers to perform risk assessments against airborne transmission. The model was tested against two benchmark outbreaks, showing good agreement. The tool was also applied to several everyday-life settings, in particular for the cases of a shared office, classroom and ski cabin. We found that 20% of infected hosts can emit approximately 2 orders of magnitude more viral-containing particles, suggesting the importance of super-emitters in airborne transmission. The use of surgical-type masks provides a 5-fold reduction in viral emissions. Natural ventilation through the opening of windows at all times are effective strategies to decrease the concentration of virions and slightly opening a window in the winter has approximately the same effect as a full window opening during the summer. Although vaccination is an effective protection measure, non-pharmaceutical interventions, which significantly reduce the viral density in the air (ventilation, masks), should be actively supported and included early in the risk assessment process. We propose a critical threshold value approach which could be used to define an acceptable risk level in a given indoor setting.

Cumulative Risk Assessment Conceptual Model

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorna Harron ◽  
Doug McCutcheon
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
The United States ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Baseline Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Assessment Process ◽  
Operating Risk

The energy transportation network of the United States consists of over 2.5 million miles of pipelines operated by approximately 3,000 companies. Based on data generated from annual reports to PHMSA from pipeline operators, the network includes approximately: • 173,000 miles of hazardous liquid pipeline; • 324,000 miles of gas transmission and gathering pipelines; • 2,037,000 miles of natural gas distribution mains and service pipelines; • 113 LNG plants connected to natural gas systems. There are 580,000 kilometers of pipeline in Canada, transferring oil and natural gas to various locations within the country, North America, and to ports, where products can then be shipped globally. As organizations change and grow, there is a need to determine not only the risk of a specific project or new asset, but the effect of that project or new asset on the risk profile of the facility or pipeline. Different types of risk evaluations may be performed at a location, so obtaining a risk score that can integrate various risk assessment techniques can be a challenge. This paper proposes a new technique developed to meet this need, called the cumulative risk assessment process. The cumulative risk assessment provides a quantified value for the operating risk at a facility based on the following formulae: BaselineRiskValue=L×C(1)OperatingRiskValue=BaselineRiskValue×(1×10−MitCredits)(2)CumulativeRiskValue=Σ(OperatingRiskValue)scen(3) Baseline risk is defined as the risk value in the absence of mitigation or risk control. Operating risk is the current risk level with existing mitigation and risk controls in place, evaluated in the calculation as mitigation credits. For the baseline risk calculation (L) refers to Likelihood and (C) refers to Consequence. Both baseline and operating risk are evaluated per scenario, with all scenarios summed to obtain the cumulative risk value for a location, pipeline or pipeline segment. This paper describes the cumulative risk assessment process and provides examples of how this risk assessment technique can be applied to an existing facility with new assets constructed and to a segment of operating mainline pipe.

Cross-Disciplinary Approach for the Risk Assessment Ontology Design

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-53
Author(s):  
Anca Draghici ◽  
George Draghici
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
System Structure ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Risk Assessment Process ◽  
Concept Model ◽  
Ontology Design ◽  
Ontology Structure ◽  
Work Accidents

The article describes a cross-disciplinary approach to support the risk assessment process through an integrative tool based on a global ontology. The designed global ontology allows the risk identification and characterization, the related potential work accidents and/or diseases, and decides better for appropriate preventive/corrective measures (the risk assessment logical chain). The global ontology structure follow a matrix model with two dimensions: one related to the work system structure/components and the other related to the risk assessment logical chain. For the integrative tools, solutions there have been developed a risk assessment process modeling with the purpose of better explain and understand the relations in the risk assessment logical chain. In addition, a concept model was developed and implemented for the global ontology complete definition. Finally, an expert system and a web platform are presented as integrative tools for the risk assessment.

scholarly journals Using EWGM method to optimise the FMEA as a risk assessment methodology

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sahar AL Mashaqbeh ◽  
Jose Eduardo Munive-Hernandez ◽  
Mohammed Khurshid Khan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Risk Ranking

Failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA) is a proactive, highly structured and systematic approach for failure analysis. It has been also applied as a risk assessment tool, by ranking potential risks based on the estimation of risk priority numbers (RPNs). This article develops an improved FMEA methodology for strategic risk analysis. The proposed approach combines the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique with the exponential and weighted geometric mean method (EWGM) to support risk analysis. AHP is applied to estimate the weights of three risk factors: Severity (S), Occurrence (O) and Detection (D), which integrate the RPN for each risk. The EWGM method is applied for ranking RPNs. Combining AHP with EWGM allows avoiding repetition of FMEA results. The results of the developed methodology reveal that duplication of RPNs has been decreased, facilitating an effective risk ranking by offering a unique value for each risk. The proposed methodology not only focuses on high severity values for risk ranking but it also considers other risk factors (O and D), resulting in an enhanced risk assessment process. Furthermore, the weights of the three risk factors are considered. In this way, the developed methodology offers unique value for each risk in a simple way which makes the risk assessment results more accurate. This methodology provides a practical and systematic approach to support decision makers in assessing and ranking risks that could affect long-term strategy implementation. The methodology was validated through the case study of a power plant in the Middle East, assessing 84 risks within 9 risk categories. The case study revealed that top management should pay more attention to key risks associated with electricity price, gas emissions, lost-time injuries, bad odour and production.

scholarly journals Computational method for risk assessment of regional socio-economic development

2021 ◽  
Vol 107 ◽  
pp. 10001
Author(s):  
Oleg Pursky ◽  
Tatiana Dubovyk ◽  
Iryna Buchatska ◽  
Iryna Lutsenko ◽  
Hanna Danylchuk
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Computational Method ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
General Situation ◽  
Risk Indicator ◽  
Expert Evaluation ◽  
Socio Economic Development

In this study, we present the computational method for risk assessment of the socio-economic development of regions. An attempt has been made to develop a method for the determination of integral risk indicators of socio-economic development based on the joint use of the methods of factor analysis and expert evaluation. This approach has increased the reliability of the calculations and made it possible to analyze the influence of socio-economic indicators on the risk level of socio-economic development. The integral risk indicator shows the effect of the inconsistency in the level of factor provision on the socio-economic development of the j-th region (district) in comparison with the general situation in the country (regions). The closer the value of integral risk indicator is to 1, the higher the level of risk in this region. Using Kyiv region districts as an example, the process of risk assessment for regional socio-economic development has been considered. The results obtained in this investigation demonstrate that the presented computational method solves the problem of formalization of risk assessment for the socio-economic development of regions.

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