scholarly journals Show issue Year 12/2012  Volume 2020  Issue 34 Regional Correction of The Flis-Słomczyński-Stolicki Formula: The Case of Turkish Elections

Decyzje ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (34) ◽  
pp. 29-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uğurcan Evci ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Unequal Distribution ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Special Rights ◽  
Independent Candidates

This paper proposes a correction to the Flis-Słomczyński-Stolicki (2019, 2020) formula for countries with large variation among their districts in terms of political divisions. The Flis-Słomczyński-Stolicki formula (FSS formula) estimates seat allocations under the Jefferson-D’Hondt method by using national vote shares, as well as other parameters that are often readily available. However, the FSS formula does not yield precise estimates in those countries where there are independent candidates, special rights assigned to minority parties, signifi cant variation in district sizes, or an unequal distribution of votes due to ethnic or other regional divisions. Hence, I propose dividing the national distribution of votes into regions that satisfy the assumptions of the FSS formula within their district borders. By applying the FSS formula to regions consisting of historically and politically homogenous districts, I demonstrate that the formula’s estimates become signifi cantly more precise. For instance, by applying the regional correction to the 2018 Turkish Parliamentary elections, as well as other Turkish elections between 2007 and 2015, I show that the formula with the correction in three separate regions improves the Loosemore-Hanby goodness of fi t estimates from 2.1 to 3.41 percentage points (95% CI). Thus, the correction might signifi cantly improve the estimates of the FSS formula in various countries, including Spain, Peru, and Belgium.

Independent Candidates and Political Representation in India

2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (3) ◽  
pp. 678-697 ◽  
Author(s):  
SACHA KAPOOR ◽  
ARVIND MAGESAN
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
The Political ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Independent Candidates

We estimate the causal effect of independent candidates on voter turnout and election outcomes in India. To do this, we exploit exogenous changes in the entry deposit candidates pay for their participation in the political process, changes that disproportionately excluded candidates with no affiliation to established political parties. A one standard deviation increase in the number of independent candidates increases voter turnout by more than 6 percentage points, as some voters choose to vote rather than stay home. The vote share of independent candidates increases by more than 10 percentage points, as some existing voters switch who they vote for. Thus, independents allow winning candidates to win with less vote share, decrease the probability of electing a candidate from the governing coalition by about 31 percentage points, and ultimately increase the probability of electing an ethnic-party candidate. Altogether, the results imply that the price of participation by independents is constituency representation in government.

scholarly journals Explaining Turnout Decline in Post-Communist Countries: The Impact of Migration

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 29-60
Author(s):  
Mircea Comşa
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Multivariate Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Communist Countries ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Hypothesis ◽  
External Migration

Abstract Turnout decline in former communist countries has attracted a great deal of scholarly attention. In this paper, I re-test some of the previous hypotheses on new data and I propose a new hypothesis that considers the impact of external migration. Using multivariate regression models on a dataset of 272 presidential and parliamentary elections held in 30 post-communist countries between 1989 and 2012, I have found strong support for the “migration hypothesis”: other things being equal, an increase of migration rate by 1 percentage point reduces voter turnout by around 0.4 percentage points. Most of the previous hypotheses related to causes of turnout decline are supported too.

scholarly journals Media and Political Persuasion: Evidence from Russia

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (7) ◽  
pp. 3253-3285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruben Enikolopov ◽  
Maria Petrova ◽  
Ekaterina Zhuravskaya
Keyword(s):  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Persuasion ◽  
Voting Intentions ◽  
Opposition Parties ◽  
Differential Access

This paper compares electoral outcomes of 1999 parliamentary elections in Russia among geographical areas with differential access to the only national TV channel independent from the government. It was available to three-quarters of Russia's population and its signal availability was idiosyncratic, conditional on observables. Independent TV decreased aggregate vote for the government party by 8.9 percentage points, increased the combined vote for major opposition parties by 6.3 percentage points, and decreased turnout by 3.8 percentage points. The probability of voting for opposition parties increased for individuals who watched independent TV even controlling for voting intentions measured one month before elections. (JEL D72, L82, P26)

scholarly journals Longer religious fasting increases support for Islamist parties: Evidence from Ramadan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ozan Aksoy ◽  
Diego Gambetta
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Religious Organizations ◽  
Religious Practices ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Fasting Time ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Sacrifice ◽  
Religious Fasting

Much scientific research shows that the sacrifices imposed by religious practices are positively associated with the success of religious organizations. We present the first evidence that this association is causal. We employ a natural experiment that rests on a peculiar time-shifting feature of Ramadan that makes the length of fasting time vary from year-to-year and by latitude. We find that an hour increase in fasting during the median Ramadan day increases the vote shares of Islamist political parties by about 6.5 percentage-points in Turkey’s parliamentary elections between 1973 and 2018. This effect is weaker in provinces where the proportion of non-orthodox Muslims is higher, but stronger in provinces where the number of per capita mosques and of religious personnel is higher. Further analyses suggest that the main mechanism underlying our findings is an increased commitment to religion induced by costlier practice. By showing that the success of religious organizations is causally related to the sacrifice demanded by religious practices, these results strengthen a key finding of the science of religion.

Some effects of unequal distribution of information in a wheel group structure.

1954 ◽  
Vol 49 (4, Pt.1) ◽  
pp. 554-556 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Gilchrist ◽  
Marvin E. Shaw ◽  
L. C. Walker
Keyword(s):  
Group Structure ◽  
Unequal Distribution

Ein Ende mit Schrecken – Frankreich nach den Wahlen

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (188) ◽  
pp. 495-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Syrovatka
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Political Support ◽  
The Political ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Economic Transformations ◽  
Crisis Of Representation ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Deep Crisis

The presidential and parliamentary elections were a political earthquake for the French political system. While the two big parties experienced massive losses of political support, the rise of new political formations took place. Emmanuel Macron is not only the youngest president of the V. Republic so far, he is also the first president not to be supported by either one of the two biggest parties. This article argues that the election results are an expression of a deep crisis of representation in France that is rooted in the economic transformations of the 1970s. The article analyses the political situation after the elections and tries to give an outlook on further political developments in France.

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