Formal Analyses and Critical Thinking

Author(s):  
John Levitt ◽  
Richard Holman ◽  
Rena Levitt ◽  
Eric Bonabeau

What treatments should be used for prostate cancer? How likely are people to vote Democratic or Republican in the next U.S. presidential election? How should scarce resources be deployed to help feed the world? These are just a few of the questions that various segments of the populace face daily. Yet, most of us are unable to analyse the available data pertaining to these and other questions in a logical or quantitative fashion in order to make informed decisions. These issues shape how and what we teach in Formal Analyses. An engaged citizenry needs tools such as an understanding of how to identify and unravel logical fallacies, how statistics can both clarify and obfuscate issues and how tools such as risk analysis and game theory can aid in decision making. Our Formal Analyses course arms students with techniques such as logical thinking, formal representation of problems, algorithms and simulations, probability and statistics, and tools for effective decision-making to create discerning consumers of information.

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazuhiro Nakayama ◽  
Wakako Osaka ◽  
Nobuaki Matsubara ◽  
Tsutomu Takeuchi ◽  
Mayumi Toyoda ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Hormone therapy is one option for some types of prostate cancer. Shared decision making (SDM) is important in the decision making process, but SDM between prostate cancer patients receiving hormone therapy and physicians is not fully understood. This study tested hypotheses: “Patients’ perception of SDM is associated with treatment satisfaction, mediated by satisfaction with physicians’ explanations and perceived effective decision making” and “The amount of information provided to patients by physicians on diseases and treatment is associated with treatment satisfaction mediated by patients’ perceived SDM and satisfaction with physicians’ explanations.” Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted using an online panel via a private research company in Japan. The participants in this study were patients registered with the panel who had received or were currently receiving hormone therapy for prostate cancer and physicians registered with the panel who were treating patients with prostate cancer. Measures used in this study included a nine-item Shared Decision Making Questionnaire, levels of satisfaction with physicians’ explanations and treatment satisfaction, and effective decision making for patients (feeling the choice is informed, value-based, likely to be implemented and expressing satisfaction with the choice), and a Shared Decision Making Questionnaire for Doctors. The hypotheses were examined using path analysis. Results In total, 124 patients and 150 physicians were included in the analyses. In keeping with our hypotheses, perceived SDM significantly correlated with the physicians’ explanations and perceived effective decision making for patients, and satisfaction with physicians’ explanations and perceived effective decision making for patients were both related to treatment satisfaction. Although the amount of information provided to patients was correlated with the perceived SDM, it was indirectly related to their satisfaction with physicians’ explanations. Conclusions When physicians encourage patients to be actively involved in making decisions about treatment through the SDM process while presenting a wide range of information at the start of hormone therapy, patients’ effective decision making and physicians’ explanations may be improved; consequently, the patients’ overall treatment satisfaction may be improved. Physicians who treat patients with prostate cancer may have underestimated the importance of SDM before starting hormone therapy, even greater extent than patients.


Author(s):  
András Sajó ◽  
Renáta Uitz

This chapter examines the relationship between parliamentarism and the legislative branch. It explores the evolution of the legislative branch, leading to disillusionment with the rationalized law-making factory, a venture run by political parties beyond the reach of constitutional rules. The rise of democratically bred party rule is positioned between the forces favouring free debate versus effective decision-making in the legislature. The chapter analyses the institutional make-up and internal operations of the legislature, the role of the opposition in the legislative assembly, and explores the benefits of bicameralism for boosting the powers of the legislative branch. Finally, it looks at the law-making process and its outsourcing via delegating legislative powers to the executive.


2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 577-587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donghyun Kim ◽  
Deying Li ◽  
Omid Asgari ◽  
Yingshu Li ◽  
Alade O. Tokuta ◽  
...  

2005 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-166
Author(s):  
M. Iqbal

ABSTRACTIn the recent past life companies have made many decisions which they have had cause to deeply regret. This paper looks at the range of decision making theories available. It then examines recent examples of decisions that had unfavourable consequences and explores why they were taken, and goes on to describe a systematic approach to decision making which can help management assess more objectively the difficult choices confronting them today. The approach does not require espousal of any specific decision theory or method of value measurement. The focus is on the decision making process and the organisation's capacity to handle change. The paper identifies the three requirements for effective decision making.


2011 ◽  
Vol 225-226 ◽  
pp. 407-410 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wan Qing Li ◽  
Mu Jie Chen ◽  
Wen Qing Meng

An unascertained measure-entropy evaluation model for the program selection of shaft construction under complex conditions is established so that a scientific and effective decision making method is provided in this paper, the evaluation model of shaft construction is established based on unascertained measure and entropy weight theory, then, the model proposed in this paper is applied to evaluate three shaft construction program comprehensively, and the evaluation results show validity and applicability of the model.


Author(s):  
Raj Veeramani ◽  
Narayanan Viswanathan ◽  
Shailesh M. Joshi

Abstract New approaches for decision making are emerging to support the use of the Internet for supply-web interactions in the manufacturing industry. In this paper, we discuss one such paradigm, namely similarity-based decision support. It recognizes that knowledge of similar experiences can support rapid and effective decision making in various forms of supply-web interactions. We illustrate this approach using two prototype systems, WebScout (an agent-based system for customer–supplier matchmaking in the job-shop machining industry context) and TOME (Treasury of Manufacturing Experiences — an Intranet application to aid manufacturability assessment in foundries).


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