scholarly journals Structure in the variability of the basic reproductive number (R0) for Zika epidemics in the Pacific islands

eLife ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Champagne ◽  
David Georges Salthouse ◽  
Richard Paul ◽  
Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau ◽  
Benjamin Roche ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Islands ◽  
New Caledonia ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
French Polynesia ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Seroprevalence Data

Before the outbreak that reached the Americas in 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) circulated in Asia and the Pacific: these past epidemics can be highly informative on the key parameters driving virus transmission, such as the basic reproduction number (R0). We compare two compartmental models with different mosquito representations, using surveillance and seroprevalence data for several ZIKV outbreaks in Pacific islands (Yap, Micronesia 2007, Tahiti and Moorea, French Polynesia 2013-2014, New Caledonia 2014). Models are estimated in a stochastic framework with recent Bayesian techniques. R0 for the Pacific ZIKV epidemics is estimated between 1.5 and 4.1, the smallest islands displaying higher and more variable values. This relatively low range of R0 suggests that intervention strategies developed for other flaviviruses should enable as, if not more effective control of ZIKV. Our study also highlights the importance of seroprevalence data for precise quantitative analysis of pathogen propagation, to design prevention and control strategies.

scholarly journals Structure in the variability of the basic reproductive number (R0) for Zika epidemics in the Pacific islands

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Champagne ◽  
David Georges Salthouse ◽  
Richard Paul ◽  
Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau ◽  
Benjamin Roche ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Islands ◽  
New Caledonia ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
French Polynesia ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Seroprevalence Data

AbstractBefore the outbreak that reached the Americas in 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) circulated in Asia and the Pacific: these past epidemics can be highly informative on the key parameters driving virus transmission, such as the basic reproduction number (R0). We compare two compartmental models with different mosquito representations, using surveillance and seroprevalence data for several ZIKV outbreaks in Pacific islands (Yap, Micronesia 2007, Tahiti and Moorea, French Polynesia 2013-2014, New Caledonia 2014). Models are estimated in a stochastic framework with state-of-the-art Bayesian techniques. R0 for the Pacific ZIKV epidemics is estimated between 1.5 and 4.1, the smallest islands displaying higher and more variable values. This relatively low range of R0 suggests that intervention strategies developed for other flaviviruses should enable as, if not more effective control of ZIKV. Our study also highlights the importance of seroprevalence data for precise quantitative analysis of pathogen propagation, to design prevention and control strategies.

scholarly journals Author response: Structure in the variability of the basic reproductive number (R0) for Zika epidemics in the Pacific islands

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Champagne ◽  
David Georges Salthouse ◽  
Richard Paul ◽  
Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau ◽  
Benjamin Roche ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Islands ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Author Response ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
The Pacific

scholarly journals Decolonisation Processes in the South Pacific Islands: A Comparative Analysis between Metropolitan Powers

1996 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 355
Author(s):  
Paul De Deckker
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Pacific Islands ◽  
New Caledonia ◽  
Free Association ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
French Polynesia ◽  
The South ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
South Pacific Islands

The South Pacific islands came late, by comparison with Asia and Africa, to undertake the decolonising process. France was the first colonial power in the region to start off this process in accordance with the decision taken in Paris to pave the way to independence for African colonies. The Loi-cadre Defferre in 1957, voted in Parliament, was applied to French Polynesia and New Caledonia as it was to French Africa. Territorial governments were elected in both these Pacific colonies in 1957. They were abolished in 1963 after the return to power of General de Gaulle who decided to use Moruroa for French atomic testing. The status quo ante was then to prevail in New Caledonia and French Polynesia up to today amidst statutory crises. The political evolution of the French Pacific, including Wallis and Futuna, is analysed in this article. Great Britain, New Zealand and Australia were to conform to the 1960 United Nations' recommendations to either decolonise, integrate or provide to Pacific colonies self-government in free association with the metropolitan power. Great Britain granted constitutional independence to all of its colonies in the Pacific except Pitcairn. The facts underlying this drastic move are analysed in the British context of the 1970's, culminating in the difficult independence of Vanuatu in July 1980. New Zealand and Australia followed the UN recommendations and granted independence or self-government to their colonial territories. In the meantime, they reinforced their potential to dominate the South Pacific in the difficult geopolitical context of the 1980s. American Micronesia undertook statutory evolution within a strategic framework. What is at stake today within the Pacific Islands is no longer of a political nature; it is financial.

scholarly journals Risk of COVID-19 importation to the Pacific islands through global air travel

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. T. Craig ◽  
A. E. Heywood ◽  
J. Hall
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Islands ◽  
New Caledonia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
The United States ◽  
French Polynesia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Importation Risk

Abstract On 30 January 2020, WHO declared coronavirus (COVID-19) a global public health emergency. As of 12 March 2020, 125 048 confirmed COVID-19 cases in 118 countries had been reported. On 12 March 2020, the first case in the Pacific islands was reported in French Polynesia; no other Pacific island country or territory has reported cases. The purpose of our analysis is to show how travellers may introduce COVID-19 into the Pacific islands and discuss the role robust health systems play in protecting health and reducing transmission risk. We analyse travel and Global Health Security Index data using a scoring tool to produce quantitative estimates of COVID-19 importation risk, by departing and arriving country. Our analysis indicates that, as of 12 March 2020, the highest risk air routes by which COVID-19 may be imported into the Pacific islands are from east Asian countries (specifically, China, Korea and Japan) to north Pacific airports (likely Guam, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands or, to a less extent, Palau); or from China, Japan, Singapore, the United States of America or France to south Pacific ports (likely, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, French Polynesia or New Caledonia). Other importation routes include from other east Asian countries to Guam, and from Australia, New Zealand and other European countries to the south Pacific. The tool provides a useful method for assessing COVID-19 importation risk and may be useful in other settings.

The Decolonisation of the Pacific Islands

Itinerario ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 24 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 173-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Aldrich
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Pacific Islands ◽  
New Caledonia ◽  
Solomon Islands ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
The United States ◽  
French Polynesia ◽  
American Samoa ◽  
Caroline Islands ◽  
Foreign Control

At the end of the Second World War, the islands of Polynesia, Melanesia and Micronesia were all under foreign control. The Netherlands retained West New Guinea even while control of the rest of the Dutch East Indies slipped away, while on the other side of the South Pacific, Chile held Easter Island. Pitcairn, the Gilbert and Ellice Islands, Fiji and the Solomon Islands comprised Britain's Oceanic empire, in addition to informal overlordship of Tonga. France claimed New Caledonia, the French Establishments in Oceania (soon renamed French Polynesia) and Wallis and Futuna. The New Hebrides remained an Anglo-French condominium; Britain, Australia and New Zealand jointly administered Nauru. The United States' territories included older possessions – the Hawaiian islands, American Samoa and Guam – and the former Japanese colonies of the Northern Marianas, Mar-shall Islands and Caroline Islands administered as a United Nations trust territory. Australia controlled Papua and New Guinea (PNG), as well as islands in the Torres Strait and Norfolk Island; New Zealand had Western Samoa, the Cook Islands, Niue and Tokelau. No island group in Oceania, other than New Zealand, was independent.

scholarly journals TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF DENGUE IN COSTA RICA: THE ROLE OF HOSPITALIZATIONS

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 241-266
Author(s):  
FABIO SANCHEZ ◽  
JORGE ARROYO-ESQUIVEL ◽  
PAOLA VÁSQUEZ
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Specific Parameter ◽  
Public Health Officials ◽  
Disease Free

For decades, dengue virus has caused major problems for public health officials in tropical and subtropical countries around the world. We construct a compartmental model that includes the role of hospitalized individuals in the transmission dynamics of dengue in Costa Rica. The basic reproductive number, R0, is computed, as well as a sensitivity analysis on R0 parameters. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is established. Numerical simulations under specific parameter scenarios are performed to determine optimal prevention/control strategies.

scholarly journals Mathematical modelling for malaria under resistance and population movement

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-163
Author(s):  
Cristhian Montoya ◽  
Jhoana P. Romero Leiton
Keyword(s):  
Human Population ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Transmission Dynamic ◽  
Equilibrium Solutions ◽  
Population Movements ◽  
Existence And Stability ◽  
Theoretical Results ◽  
Disease Free

In this work, two mathematical models for malaria under resistance are presented. More precisely, the first model shows the interaction between humans and mosquitoes inside a patch under infection of malaria when the human population is resistant to antimalarial drug and mosquitoes population is resistant to insecticides. For the second model, human–mosquitoes population movements in two patches is analyzed under the same malaria transmission dynamic established in a patch. For a single patch, existence and stability conditions for the equilibrium solutions in terms of the local basic reproductive number are developed. These results reveal the existence of a forward bifurcation and the global stability of disease–free equilibrium. In the case of two patches, a theoretical and numerical framework on sensitivity analysis of parameters is presented. After that, the use of antimalarial drugs and insecticides are incorporated as control strategies and an optimal control problem is formulated. Numerical experiments are carried out in both models to show the feasibility of our theoretical results.

Estimation of the basic reproductive number (R0) for epidemic, highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 spread

2008 ◽  
Vol 137 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. P. WARD ◽  
D. MAFTEI ◽  
C. APOSTU ◽  
A. SURU
Keyword(s):  
Avian Influenza ◽  
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Highly Pathogenic ◽  
Pathogenic Avian Influenza ◽  
True Basic ◽  
Road Distance

SUMMARYThree different methods were used for estimating the basic reproductive number (R0) from data on 110 outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 that occurred in village poultry in Romania, 12 May to 6 June 2006. We assumed a village-level infectious period of 7 days. The methods applied were GIS-based identification of nearest infectious neighbour (based on either Euclidean or road distance), the method of epidemic doubling time, and a susceptible–infectious (SI) modelling approach. In general, the estimated basic reproductive numbers were consistent: 2·14, 1·95, 2·68 and 2·21, respectively. Although the true basic reproductive number in this epidemic is unknown, results suggest that the use of a range of methods might be useful for characterizing epidemics of infectious diseases. Once the basic reproductive number has been estimated, better control strategies and targeted surveillance programmes can be designed.

scholarly journals Antibiotic Resistance in Pacific Island Countries and Territories: A Systematic Scoping Review

Antibiotics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Foxlee ◽  
Nicola Townell ◽  
Lachlan McIver ◽  
Colleen Lau
Keyword(s):  
Antibiotic Resistance ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Pacific Islands ◽  
New Caledonia ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Extended Spectrum Beta Lactamase ◽  
Healthcare Settings ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Future Policy

Several studies have investigated antimicrobial resistance in low- and middle-income countries, but to date little attention has been paid to the Pacific Islands Countries and Territories (PICTs). This study aims to review the literature on antibiotic resistance (ABR) in healthcare settings in PICTs to inform further research and future policy development for the region. Following the PRISMA-ScR checklist health databases and grey literature sources were searched. Three reviewers independently screened the literature for inclusion, data was extracted using a charting tool and the results were described and synthesised. Sixty-five studies about ABR in PICTs were identified and these are primarily about New Caledonia, Fiji and Papua New Guinea. Ten PICTs contributed the remaining 21 studies and nine PICTs were not represented. The predominant gram-positive pathogen reported was community-acquired methicillin resistant S. aureus and the rates of resistance ranged widely (>50% to <20%). Resistance reported in gram-negative pathogens was mainly associated with healthcare-associated infections (HCAIs). Extended spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) producing K. pneumoniae isolates were reported in New Caledonia (3.4%) and Fiji (22%) and carbapenem resistant A. baumannii (CR-ab) isolates in the French Territories (24.8%). ABR is a problem in the PICTs, but the epidemiology requires further characterisation. Action on strengthening surveillance in PICTs needs to be prioritised so strategies to contain ABR can be fully realised.

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