A Theory of Strategic Anticipation

Author(s):  
Rosemary A. Kelanic

This chapter explains the book's theory and identifies the two independent variables that drive the choice of anticipatory strategies: the petroleum deficit and the threat to oil imports. When combined, these two independent variables determine the state's overall coercive vulnerability. The chapter also discusses how the military value of oil is a necessary condition to explain great power behavior. The economic value of oil, while important, is not sufficient to explain why states pursue anticipatory strategies. The chapter then looks at the three categories of anticipatory strategy from which states select: self-sufficiency, indirect control, and direct control. Ultimately, a state will choose the lowest cost anticipatory strategy capable of fulfilling its oil security needs, given its degree of vulnerability. Finally, the chapter considers whether oil is “different” from other resources.

Author(s):  
Alexander Tabachnik ◽  
Benjamin Miller

This chapter explains the process of peaceful change in Central and Eastern Europe following the demise of the Soviet system. It also explains the failure of peaceful change in the Balkans and some post-Soviet countries, such as the Ukrainian conflict in 2014. The chapter accounts for the conditions for peaceful change and for the variation between peaceful and violent change by the state-to-nation theory. The two independent variables suggested by the theory are the level of state capacity and congruence—namely the compatibility between state borders and the national identities of the countries at stake. Moreover, according to the theory, great-power engagement serves as an intervening variable and in some conditions, as explained in the chapter, may help with peaceful change.


Filomat ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (9) ◽  
pp. 3155-3169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seth Kermausuor ◽  
Eze Nwaeze

Recently, a new Ostrowski type inequality on time scales for k points was proved in [G. Xu, Z. B. Fang: A Generalization of Ostrowski type inequality on time scales with k points. Journal of Mathematical Inequalities (2017), 11(1):41-48]. In this article, we extend this result to the 2-dimensional case. Besides extension, our results also generalize the three main results of Meng and Feng in the paper [Generalized Ostrowski type inequalities for multiple points on time scales involving functions of two independent variables. Journal of Inequalities and Applications (2012), 2012:74]. In addition, we apply some of our theorems to the continuous, discrete, and quantum calculus to obtain more interesting results in this direction. We hope that results obtained in this paper would find their place in approximation and numerical analysis.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. A. El-Deeb ◽  
Saima Rashid ◽  
Zareen A. Khan ◽  
S. D. Makharesh

AbstractIn this paper, we establish some dynamic Hilbert-type inequalities in two independent variables on time scales by using the Fenchel–Legendre transform. We also apply our inequalities to discrete and continuous calculus to obtain some new inequalities as particular cases. Our results give more general forms of several previously established inequalities.


2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-69
Author(s):  
Magdalena Ujma

Abstract An analysis of the relationship between Jan III Sobieski and the people he distinguished shows that there were many mutual benefits. Social promotion was more difficult if the candidate for the office did not come from a senatorial family34. It can be assumed that, especially in the case of Atanazy Walenty Miączyński, the economic activity in the Sobieski family was conducive to career development. However, the function of the plenipotentiary was not a necessary condition for this. Not all the people distinguished by Jan III Sobieski achieved the same. More important offices were entrusted primarily to Marek Matczyński. Stanisław Zygmunt Druszkiewicz’s career was definitely less brilliant. Druszkiewicz joined the group of senators thanks to Jan III, and Matczyński and Szczuka received ministerial offices only during the reign of Sobieski. Jan III certainly counted on the ability to manage a team of people acquired by his comrades-in-arms in the course of his military service. However, their other advantage was also important - good orientation in political matters and exerting an appropriate influence on the nobility. The economic basis of the magnate’s power is an issue that requires more extensive research. This issue was primarily of interest to historians dealing with latifundia in the 18th century. This was mainly due to the source material. Latifundial documentation was kept much more regularly in the 18th century than before and is well-organized. The economic activity of the magnate was related not only to the internal organization of landed estates. It cannot be separated from the military, because the goal of the magnate’s life was politics and, very often, also war. Despite its autonomy, the latifundium wasn’t isolated. Despite the existence of the decentralization process of the state, the magnate families remained in contact with the weakening center of the state and influenced changes in its social structure. The actual strength of the magnate family was determined not only by the area of land goods, but above all by their profitability, which depended on several factors: geographic location and natural conditions, the current situation on the economic market, and the management method adopted by the magnate. In the 17th century, crisis phenomena, visible in demography, agricultural and crafts production, money and trade, intensified. In these realities, attempts by Jan III Sobieski to reconstruct the lands destroyed by the war and to introduce military rigor in the management center did not bring the expected results. Sobieski, however, introduced “new people” to the group of senators, who implemented his policy at the sejmiks and the Parliament, participated in military expeditions and managed his property.


2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke Davies

Abstract Kant distinguishes between ‘active’ and ‘passive’ citizens and holds that only the former are civilly self-sufficient and possess rights of political participation. Such rights are important, since for Kant state institutions are a necessary condition for individual freedom. Thus, only active citizens are entitled to contribute to a necessary condition for the freedom of each. I argue that Kant attributes civil self-sufficiency to those who are not under the authority of any private individual for their survival. This reading is more textually grounded than the dominant reading, which understands civil self-sufficiency in terms of economic relations alone. I further argue that Kant was interested in relations of authority because he was concerned to eliminate certain forms of corruption. This indicates that Kant’s contested distinction between active and passive citizens was a response to a key problem of any account of public lawgiving.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-238
Author(s):  
Stephen Nettelhorst ◽  
Laura Brannon ◽  
Angela Rose ◽  
Whitney Whitaker

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate online viewers’ preferences concerning the number and duration of video advertisements to watch during commercial breaks. The goal of the investigations was to assess whether online viewers preferred watching a fewer number of advertisements with longer durations or a greater number of advertisements with shorter durations. Design/methodology/approach Two studies used experimental research designs to assess viewers’ preferences regarding advertisements. These designs used two independent variables and one dependent variable. The first independent variable manipulated the type of choice options given to online viewers (e.g. one 60 s or two 30 s advertisements). The second independent variable manipulated when the choice was given to online viewers (i.e. at the beginning of the viewing experience or in the middle of the experience). The dependent variable measured viewers’ choices concerning their preferred advertisement option. Findings The results across both studies found that participants made choices that minimized total advertisement exposure time when possible. When minimizing total exposure time was not possible, participants made choices that minimized the number of exposures instead. Originality/value These investigations extend the literature on advertisement choice by examining online viewers’ preferences about the format of their advertising experience rather than the content of the persuasive messages themselves. In addition, these investigations provide value by investigating viewers’ responses to stimuli within realistic online simulations rather than abstract hypotheticals.


2016 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 179-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack Snyder

Whether economic interdependence is a cause of war or peace constitutes a central debate in international politics. Two major approaches advance diametrically opposed claims: liberal theory holds that interdependence between states promotes peace by increasing the costs of war; realist theory argues that interdependence is just another word for vulnerability, a condition that states may try to escape by seizing the resources and markets they need for self-sufficiency. Considerable evidence supports both of these claims. In Economic Interdependence and War, Dale Copeland proposes to resolve this stalemate by showing that interdependence promotes peace when states expect mutually beneficial trade to continue, but creates incentives for war when at least one of the states expects that trade trends will leave it dangerously vulnerable. Notwithstanding this book's major theoretical contributions and its impressive historical research, it leaves open several important questions about how to move forward with its agenda of theoretical development and testing.


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