scholarly journals Effectiveness of isolation policies in schools: evidence from a mathematical model of influenza and COVID-19

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e11211
Author(s):  
Adam A.C. Burns ◽  
Alexander Gutfraind
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Day School ◽  
School Structure ◽  
Limited Evidence ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Viral Shedding ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
School Week ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, school closures and travel restrictions are often implemented to control outbreaks of infectious diseases. For influenza in schools, the Center of Disease Control (CDC) recommends that febrile students remain isolated at home until they have been fever-free for at least one day and a related policy is recommended for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). Other authors proposed using a school week of four or fewer days of in-person instruction for all students to reduce transmission. However, there is limited evidence supporting the effectiveness of these interventions. Methods We introduced a mathematical model of school outbreaks that considers both intervention methods. Our model accounts for the school structure and schedule, as well as the time-progression of fever symptoms and viral shedding. The model was validated on outbreaks of seasonal and pandemic influenza and COVID-19 in schools. It was then used to estimate the outbreak curves and the proportion of the population infected (attack rate) under the proposed interventions. Results For influenza, the CDC-recommended one day of post-fever isolation can reduce the attack rate by a median (interquartile range) of 29 (13–59)%. With 2 days of post-fever isolation the attack rate could be reduced by 70 (55–85)%. Alternatively, shortening the school week to 4 and 3 days reduces the attack rate by 73 (64–88)% and 93 (91–97)%, respectively. For COVID-19, application of post-fever isolation policy was found to be less effective and reduced the attack rate by 10 (5–17)% for a 2-day isolation policy and by 14 (5–26)% for 14 days. A 4-day school week would reduce the median attack rate in a COVID-19 outbreak by 57 (52–64)%, while a 3-day school week would reduce it by 81 (79–83)%. In both infections, shortening the school week significantly reduced the duration of outbreaks. Conclusions Shortening the school week could be an important tool for controlling influenza and COVID-19 in schools and similar settings. Additionally, the CDC-recommended post-fever isolation policy for influenza could be enhanced by requiring two days of isolation instead of one.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of Isolation Policies in Schools: Evidence from a Mathematical Model of Influenza and COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam A. C. Burns ◽  
Alexander Gutfraind
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Day School ◽  
School Structure ◽  
Limited Evidence ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Viral Shedding ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
School Week ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractBackgroundNon-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, school closures and travel restrictions are often implemented to control outbreaks of infectious diseases. For influenza in schools, the Center of Disease Control (CDC) recommends that febrile students remain isolated at home until they have been fever-free for at least one day and a related policy is recommended for SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19). Other authors proposed using a school week of four or fewer days of in-person instruction for all students to reduce transmission. However, there is limited evidence supporting the effectiveness of these interventions.MethodsWe introduced a mathematical model of school outbreaks that considers both intervention methods. Our model accounts for the school structure and schedule, as well as the time-progression of fever symptoms and viral shedding. The model was validated on outbreaks of seasonal and pandemic influenza and COVID-19 in schools. It was then used to estimate the outbreak curves and the proportion of the population infected (attack rate) under the proposed interventions.ResultsFor influenza, the CDC-recommended one day of post-fever isolation can reduce the attack rate by a median (interquartile range) of 29 (13 - 59)%. With two days of post-fever isolation the attack rate could be reduced by 70 (55 - 85)%. Alternatively, shortening the school week to four and three days reduces the attack rate by 73 (64 - 88)% and 93 (91 - 97)%, respectively. For COVID-19, application of post-fever isolation policy was found to be less effective and reduced the attack rate by 10 (5 - 17)% for a two-day isolation policy and by 14 (5 - 26)% for 14 days. A four-day school week would reduce the median attack rate in a COVID-19 outbreak by 57 (52 - 64)%, while a three-day school week would reduce it by 81 (79 - 83)%. In both infections, shortening the school week significantly reduced the duration of outbreaks.ConclusionsShortening the school week could be an important tool for controlling influenza and COVID-19 in schools and similar settings. Additionally, the CDC-recommended post-fever isolation policy for influenza could be enhanced by requiring two days of isolation instead of one.

scholarly journals Effect of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and the Implications for Human Rights

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 217
Author(s):  
Seung-Hun Hong ◽  
Ha Hwang ◽  
Min-Hye Park
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Limited Evidence ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Full Contact ◽  
Complete Contact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments swiftly decided to order nationwide lockdowns based on limited evidence that such extreme measures were effective in containing the epidemic. A growing concern is that governments were given little time to adopt effective and proportional interventions protecting citizens’ lives while observing their freedom and rights. This paper examines the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in containing COVID-19, by conducting a linear regression over 108 countries, and the implication for human rights. The regression results are supported by evidence that shows the change in 10 selected countries’ responding strategies and their effects as the confirmed cases increase. We found that school closures are effective in containing COVID-19 only when they are implemented along with complete contact tracing. Our findings imply that to contain COVID-19 effectively and minimize the risk of human rights abuses, governments should consider implementing prudently designed full contact tracing and school closure policies, among others. Minimizing the risk of human rights abuses should be a principle even when full contact tracing is implemented.

scholarly journals Effects of worldwide interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 between waves and countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Ge ◽  
Wenbin Zhang ◽  
Haiyan Liu ◽  
Corrine W Ruktanonchai ◽  
Maogui Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variations ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Worldwide governments have rapidly deployed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, together with the large-scale rollout of vaccines since late 2020. However, the effect of these individual NPI and vaccination measures across space and time has not been sufficiently explored. By the decay ratio in the suppression of COVID-19 infections, we investigated the performance of different NPIs across waves in 133 countries, and their integration with vaccine rollouts in 63 countries as of 25 March 2021. The most effective NPIs were gathering restrictions (contributing 27.83% in the infection rate reductions), facial coverings (16.79%) and school closures (10.08%) in the first wave, and changed to facial coverings (30.04%), gathering restrictions (17.51%) and international travel restrictions (9.22%) in the second wave. The impact of NPIs had obvious spatiotemporal variations across countries by waves before vaccine rollouts, with facial coverings being one of the most effective measures consistently. Vaccinations had gradually contributed to the suppression of COVID-19 transmission, from 0.71% and 0.86% within 15 days and 30 days since Day 12 after vaccination, to 1.23% as of 25 March 2021, while NPIs still dominated the pandemic mitigation. Our findings have important implications for continued tailoring of integrated NPI or NPI-vaccination strategies against future COVID-19 waves or similar infectious diseases.

scholarly journals Adoption and impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natsuko Imai ◽  
Katy A.M. Gaythorpe ◽  
Sam Abbott ◽  
Sangeeta Bhatia ◽  
Sabine van Elsland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Geographic Spread ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Influenza Transmission ◽  
Societal Impacts ◽  
Government Websites ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Background: Several non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been implemented across the world to control the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Social distancing (SD) interventions applied so far have included school closures, remote working and quarantine. These measures have been shown to have large impacts on pandemic influenza transmission. However, there has been comparatively little examination of such measures for COVID-19. Methods: We examined the existing literature, and collated data, on implementation of NPIs to examine their effects on the COVID-19 pandemic so far. Data on NPIs were collected from official government websites as well as from media sources. Results: Measures such as travel restrictions have been implemented in multiple countries and appears to have slowed the geographic spread of COVID-19 and reduced initial case numbers. We find that, due to the relatively sparse information on the differences with and without interventions, it is difficult to quantitatively assess the efficacy of many interventions. Similarly, whilst the comparison to other pandemic diseases such as influenza can be helpful, there are key differences that could affect the efficacy of similar NPIs. Conclusions: The timely implementation of control measures is key to their success and must strike a balance between early enough application to reduce the peak of the epidemic and ensuring that they can be feasibly maintained for an appropriate duration. Such measures can have large societal impacts and they need to be appropriately justified to the population. As the pandemic of COVID-19 progresses, quantifying the impact of interventions will be a vital consideration for the appropriate use of mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals Effects of worldwide interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 between waves and countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Ge ◽  
Wenbin Zhang ◽  
Haiyan Liu ◽  
Corrine W Ruktanonchai ◽  
Maogui Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variations ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Worldwide governments have rapidly deployed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, together with the large-scale rollout of vaccines since late 2020. However, the effect of these individual NPI and vaccination measures across space and time has not been sufficiently explored. By the decay ratio in the suppression of COVID-19 infections, we investigated the performance of different NPIs across waves in 133 countries, and their integration with vaccine rollouts in 63 countries as of 25 March 2021. The most effective NPIs were gathering restrictions (contributing 27.83% in the infection rate reductions), facial coverings (16.79%) and school closures (10.08%) in the first wave, and changed to facial coverings (30.04%), gathering restrictions (17.51%) and international travel restrictions (9.22%) in the second wave. The impact of NPIs had obvious spatiotemporal variations across countries by waves before vaccine rollouts, with facial coverings being one of the most effective measures consistently. Vaccinations had gradually contributed to the suppression of COVID-19 transmission, from 0.71% and 0.86% within 15 days and 30 days since Day 12 after vaccination, to 1.23% as of 25 March 2021, while NPIs still dominated the pandemic mitigation. Our findings have important implications for continued tailoring of integrated NPI or NPI-vaccination strategies against future COVID-19 waves or similar infectious diseases.

scholarly journals Mathematical model of COVID-19 with comorbidity and controlling using non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parthasakha Das ◽  
Ranjit Kumar Upadhyay ◽  
Arvind Kumar Misra ◽  
Fathalla A. Rihan ◽  
Pritha Das ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Curricular effectiveness of five-day school week program: An overview

2020 ◽  
pp. 231-234
Author(s):  
A.R. Prastowo ◽  
S. Raharja
Keyword(s):  
Day School ◽  
School Week

scholarly journals Public justification and expert disagreement over non-pharmaceutical interventions for the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
pp. medethics-2021-107671
Author(s):  
Marcus Dahlquist ◽  
Henrik D Kugelberg
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Alternative View ◽  
Public Justification ◽  
Standard View ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Environmental Cleaning ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Cleaning And Disinfection ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

A wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been introduced to stop or slow down the COVID-19 pandemic. Examples include school closures, environmental cleaning and disinfection, mask mandates, restrictions on freedom of assembly and lockdowns. These NPIs depend on coercion for their effectiveness, either directly or indirectly. A widely held view is that coercive policies need to be publicly justified—justified to each citizen—to be legitimate. Standardly, this is thought to entail that there is a scientific consensus on the factual propositions that are used to support the policies. In this paper, we argue that such a consensus has been lacking on the factual propositions justifying most NPIs. Consequently, they would on the standard view be illegitimate. This is regrettable since there are good reasons for granting the state the legitimate authority to enact NPIs under conditions of uncertainty. The upshot of our argument is that it is impossible to have both the standard interpretation of the permissibility of empirical claims in public justification and an effective pandemic response. We provide an alternative view that allows the state sufficient room for action while precluding the possibility of it acting without empirical support.

scholarly journals Attack rate and the price of SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarcisio Rocha Filho ◽  
José Mendes ◽  
Carson Chow ◽  
James Phillips ◽  
Antônio Cordeiro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Contact Structure ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Contact Matrix ◽  
The City ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract We introduce a compartmental model with age structure to study the dynamics of the SARS-COV−2 pandemic. The contagion matrix in the model is given by the product of a probability per contact with a contact matrix explicitly taking into account the contact structure among different age groups. The probability of contagion per contact is considered as time dependent to represent non-pharmaceutical interventions, and is fitted from the time series of deaths. The approach is used to study the evolution of the COVID−19 pandemic in the main Brazilian cities and compared to two good quality serological surveys. We also discuss with some detail the case of the city of Manaus which raised special attention due to a previous report of three-quarters attack rate by the end of 2020. We discuss estimates for Manaus and all Brazilian cities with a total population of more than one million. We also estimate the attack rate with respect to the total population, in each Brazilian state by January, 1 st 2021 and May, 23 2021.

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