Appendix E: Fossil Fuel Emissions Estimates for North America. Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. Jacobson ◽  
J. B. Miller ◽  
K. R. Gurney
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Compatible Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions in the CMIP6 Earth System Models’ Historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway experiments of the 21st Century

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-72
Author(s):  
Spencer K. Liddicoat ◽  
Andy J. Wiltshire ◽  
Chris D. Jones ◽  
Vivek K. Arora ◽  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Emission Rates ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
System Models ◽  
Earth System Models ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

AbstractWe present the compatible CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and industry, calculated from the historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) experiments of nine Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multi-model mean FF emissions match the historical record well and are close to the data-based estimate of cumulative emissions (392±63 GtC vs 400±20 GtC respectively). Only two models fall inside the observed uncertainty range; while two exceed the upper bound, five fall slightly below the lower bound, due primarily to the plateau in CO2 concentration in the 1940s. The ESMs’ diagnosed FF emission rates are consistent with those generated by the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) from which the SSPs’ CO2 concentration pathways were constructed; the simpler IAMs’ emissions lie within the ESMs’ spread for seven of the eight SSP experiments, the other being only marginally lower, providing confidence in the relationship between the IAMs’ FF emission rates and concentration pathways. The ESMs require fossil fuel emissions to reduce to zero and subsequently become negative in SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4 and SSP5-3.4over. We also present the ocean and land carbon cycle responses of the ESMs in the historical and SSP scenarios. The models’ ocean carbon cycle responses are in close agreement, but there is considerable spread in their land carbon cycle responses. Land use and land cover change emissions have a strong influence over the magnitude of diagnosed fossil fuel emissions, with the suggestion of an inverse relationship between the two.

Assessments of in situ and remotely sensed CO2 observations in a Carbon Cycle Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System to estimate fossil fuel emissions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Scholze ◽  
Thomas Kaminski ◽  
Peter Rayner ◽  
Michael Vossbeck ◽  
Michael Buchwitz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Atmospheric Measurements ◽  
Mode Of Operation ◽  
Emission Estimate ◽  
Annual Scale ◽  
Assimilation System ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

<p>The Paris Agreement establishes a transparency framework that builds upon inventory-based national greenhouse gas emission reports, complemented by independent emission estimates derived from atmospheric measurements through inverse modelling. The capability of such a Monitoring and Verification Support (MVS) capacity to constrain fossil fuel emissions to a sufficient extent has not yet been assessed. The CO<sub>2</sub> Monitoring Mission, planned as a constellation of satellites measuring column-integrated atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration (XCO2), is expected to become a key component of an MVS capacity. </p><p>Here we provide an assessment of the potential of a Carbon Cycle Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System using synthetic XCO2 and other observations to constrain fossil fuel CO<sub>2</sub> emissions for an exemplary 1-week period in 2008. We find that the system can provide useful weekly estimates of country-scale fossil fuel emissions independent of national inventories.  When extrapolated from the weekly to the annual scale, uncertainties in emissions are comparable to uncertainties in inventories, so that estimates from inventories and from the MVS capacity can be used for mutual verification. </p><p>We further demonstrate an alternative, synergistic mode of operation, which delivers a best emission estimate through assimilation of the inventory information as an additional data stream.  We show the sensitivity of the results to the setup of the CCFFDAS and to various aspects of the data streams that are assimilated, including assessments of surface networks.</p>

The Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Use in North America

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (12) ◽  
pp. 2528-2542 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S. Gregg ◽  
L. M. Losey ◽  
R. J. Andres ◽  
T. J. Blasing ◽  
G. Marland
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
North America ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
The United States ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Distribution ◽  
Temporal And Spatial

Abstract Refinements in the spatial and temporal resolution of North American fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions provide additional information about anthropogenic aspects of the carbon cycle. In North America, the seasonal and spatial patterns are a distinctive component to characterizing anthropogenic carbon emissions. The pattern of fossil-fuel-based CO2 emissions on a monthly scale has greater temporal and spatial variability than the flux aggregated to the national annual level. For some areas, monthly emissions can vary by as much as 85% for some fuels when compared with monthly estimates based on a uniform temporal and spatial distribution. The United States accounts for the majority of North American fossil carbon emissions, and the amplitude of the seasonal flux in emissions in the United States is greater than the total mean monthly emissions in both Canada and Mexico. Nevertheless, Canada and Mexico have distinctive seasonal patterns as well. For the continent, emissions were aggregated on a 5° × 10° latitude–longitude grid. The monthly pattern of emissions varies on both a north–south and east–west gradient and evolves through the time period analyzed (1990–2007). For many areas in North America, the magnitude of the month-to-month variation is larger than the total annual emissions from land use change, making the characterization of emissions patterns essential to understanding humanity’s influence on the carbon cycle.

scholarly journals North America's net terrestrial carbon exchange with the atmosphere 1990–2009

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 11027-11059 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. W. King ◽  
R. J. Andres ◽  
K. J. Davis ◽  
M. Hafer ◽  
D. J. Hayes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Co2 Exchange ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
The North ◽  
Source To Sink ◽  
Atmospheric Inversion

Abstract. Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil-fuel CO2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net land–atmosphere CO2 exchange for North America over the period (1990–2009). This synthesis is based on results from three different methods: atmospheric inversion, inventory-based methods and terrestrial biosphere modeling. All methods indicate that the North America land surface was a sink for atmospheric CO2, with a net transfer from atmosphere to land. Estimates ranged from −890 to −280 Tg C yr−1, where the atmospheric inversion estimate forms the lower bound of that range (a larger land-sink) and the inventory-based estimate the upper (a smaller land sink). Integrating across estimates, "best" estimates (i.e., measures of central tendency) are −472 ± 281 Tg C yr−1 based on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and −360 Tg C yr−1 (with an interquartile range of −496 to −337) based on the median. Considering both the fossil-fuel emissions source and the land sink, our analysis shows that North America was, however, a net contributor to the growth of CO2 in the atmosphere in the late 20th and early 21st century. The continent's CO2 source to sink ratio for this time period was likely in the range of 4 : 1 to 3 : 1.

scholarly journals North America's net terrestrial CO<sub>2</sub> exchange with the atmosphere 1990–2009

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 399-414 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. W. King ◽  
R. J. Andres ◽  
K. J. Davis ◽  
M. Hafer ◽  
D. J. Hayes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Co2 Exchange ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Atmospheric Inversion

Abstract. Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net land–atmosphere CO2 exchange for North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico) over the period 1990–2009. Only CO2 is considered, not methane or other greenhouse gases. This synthesis is based on results from three different methods: atmospheric inversion, inventory-based methods and terrestrial biosphere modeling. All methods indicate that the North American land surface was a sink for atmospheric CO2, with a net transfer from atmosphere to land. Estimates ranged from −890 to −280 Tg C yr−1, where the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates forms the lower bound of that range (a larger land sink) and the inventory-based estimate using the production approach the upper (a smaller land sink). This relatively large range is due in part to differences in how the approaches represent trade, fire and other disturbances and which ecosystems they include. Integrating across estimates, "best" estimates (i.e., measures of central tendency) are −472 ± 281 Tg C yr−1 based on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and −360 Tg C yr−1 (with an interquartile range of −496 to −337) based on the median. Considering both the fossil fuel emissions source and the land sink, our analysis shows that North America was, however, a net contributor to the growth of CO2 in the atmosphere in the late 20th and early 21st century. With North America's mean annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions for the period 1990–2009 equal to 1720 Tg C yr−1 and assuming the estimate of −472 Tg C yr−1 as an approximation of the true terrestrial CO2 sink, the continent's source : sink ratio for this time period was 1720:472, or nearly 4:1.

Assessment of radiocarbon observations for constraining fossil fuel emissions in a comprehensive Carbon Cycle Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans W. Chen ◽  
Marko Scholze ◽  
Thomas Kaminski ◽  
Michael Vossbeck ◽  
Peter Rayner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Open Questions ◽  
Observation Network ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

&lt;p&gt;Estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from atmospheric measurement-based &quot;top-down&quot; methods is complicated by strong and uncertain fluxes from natural systems, for example carbon dioxide (CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;) sources and sinks from the terrestrial biosphere. &amp;#160;Additional tracers such as radiocarbon are promising for disentangling the different emission contributions from human activity and natural systems. &amp;#160;However, many open questions remain about how different uncertainties in the modeling and observation of these tracers influence the emission estimates.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here we assess the potential benefits of using radiocarbon observations to constrain global fossil fuel emissions in a Carbon Cycle Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System (CCFFDAS). &amp;#160;We performed sensitivity experiments to quantify how uncertainties in the observations and models affect the uncertainties in the derived emissions, including different prior assumptions about natural and anthropogenic CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; fluxes and varying observation networks. &amp;#160;Further, we demonstrate how radiocarbon observations can complement the existing CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; observation network.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals The Australian terrestrial carbon budget

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 851-869 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Haverd ◽  
M. R. Raupach ◽  
P. R. Briggs ◽  
S. J. Davis ◽  
R. M. Law ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Total Carbon ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Australian Continent ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Abstract. This paper reports a study of the full carbon (C-CO2) budget of the Australian continent, focussing on 1990–2011 in the context of estimates over two centuries. The work is a contribution to the RECCAP (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) project, as one of numerous regional studies. In constructing the budget, we estimate the following component carbon fluxes: net primary production (NPP); net ecosystem production (NEP); fire; land use change (LUC); riverine export; dust export; harvest (wood, crop and livestock) and fossil fuel emissions (both territorial and non-territorial). Major biospheric fluxes were derived using BIOS2 (Haverd et al., 2012), a fine-spatial-resolution (0.05°) offline modelling environment in which predictions of CABLE (Wang et al., 2011), a sophisticated land surface model with carbon cycle, are constrained by multiple observation types. The mean NEP reveals that climate variability and rising CO2 contributed 12 &amp;pm; 24 (1σ error on mean) and 68 &amp;pm; 15 TgC yr−1, respectively. However these gains were partially offset by fire and LUC (along with other minor fluxes), which caused net losses of 26 &amp;pm; 4 TgC yr−1 and 18 &amp;pm; 7 TgC yr−1, respectively. The resultant net biome production (NBP) is 36 &amp;pm; 29 TgC yr−1, in which the largest contributions to uncertainty are NEP, fire and LUC. This NBP offset fossil fuel emissions (95 &amp;pm; 6 TgC yr−1) by 38 &amp;pm; 30%. The interannual variability (IAV) in the Australian carbon budget exceeds Australia's total carbon emissions by fossil fuel combustion and is dominated by IAV in NEP. Territorial fossil fuel emissions are significantly smaller than the rapidly growing fossil fuel exports: in 2009–2010, Australia exported 2.5 times more carbon in fossil fuels than it emitted by burning fossil fuels.

scholarly journals Natural climate solutions for Canada

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (23) ◽  
pp. eabd6034
Author(s):  
C. Ronnie Drever ◽  
Susan C. Cook-Patton ◽  
Fardausi Akhter ◽  
Pascal H. Badiou ◽  
Gail L. Chmura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cover Crops ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Soil Productivity ◽  
Potential Contribution ◽  
Mitigation Potential ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Clean Air ◽  
Natural Climate ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Alongside the steep reductions needed in fossil fuel emissions, natural climate solutions (NCS) represent readily deployable options that can contribute to Canada’s goals for emission reductions. We estimate the mitigation potential of 24 NCS related to the protection, management, and restoration of natural systems that can also deliver numerous co-benefits, such as enhanced soil productivity, clean air and water, and biodiversity conservation. NCS can provide up to 78.2 (41.0 to 115.1) Tg CO2e/year (95% CI) of mitigation annually in 2030 and 394.4 (173.2 to 612.4) Tg CO2e cumulatively between 2021 and 2030, with 34% available at ≤CAD 50/Mg CO2e. Avoided conversion of grassland, avoided peatland disturbance, cover crops, and improved forest management offer the largest mitigation opportunities. The mitigation identified here represents an important potential contribution to the Paris Agreement, such that NCS combined with existing mitigation plans could help Canada to meet or exceed its climate goals.

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