Assessments of in situ and remotely sensed CO2 observations in a Carbon Cycle Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System to estimate fossil fuel emissions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Scholze ◽  
Thomas Kaminski ◽  
Peter Rayner ◽  
Michael Vossbeck ◽  
Michael Buchwitz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Atmospheric Measurements ◽  
Mode Of Operation ◽  
Emission Estimate ◽  
Annual Scale ◽  
Assimilation System ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

<p>The Paris Agreement establishes a transparency framework that builds upon inventory-based national greenhouse gas emission reports, complemented by independent emission estimates derived from atmospheric measurements through inverse modelling. The capability of such a Monitoring and Verification Support (MVS) capacity to constrain fossil fuel emissions to a sufficient extent has not yet been assessed. The CO<sub>2</sub> Monitoring Mission, planned as a constellation of satellites measuring column-integrated atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration (XCO2), is expected to become a key component of an MVS capacity. </p><p>Here we provide an assessment of the potential of a Carbon Cycle Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System using synthetic XCO2 and other observations to constrain fossil fuel CO<sub>2</sub> emissions for an exemplary 1-week period in 2008. We find that the system can provide useful weekly estimates of country-scale fossil fuel emissions independent of national inventories.  When extrapolated from the weekly to the annual scale, uncertainties in emissions are comparable to uncertainties in inventories, so that estimates from inventories and from the MVS capacity can be used for mutual verification. </p><p>We further demonstrate an alternative, synergistic mode of operation, which delivers a best emission estimate through assimilation of the inventory information as an additional data stream.  We show the sensitivity of the results to the setup of the CCFFDAS and to various aspects of the data streams that are assimilated, including assessments of surface networks.</p>

scholarly journals Assimilation of atmospheric CO2 observations from space can support national CO2 emission inventories

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Kaminski ◽  
Marko Scholze ◽  
Peter Rayner ◽  
Michael Voßbeck ◽  
Michael Buchwitz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Emission Estimate ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
Assimilation System ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Abstract The Paris Agreement establishes a transparency framework for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It's core component are inventory-based national greenhouse gas emission reports, which are complemented by independent estimates derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements combined with inverse modelling. It is, however, not known whether such a Monitoring and Verification Support (MVS) capacity is capable of constraining estimates of fossil-fuel emissions to an extent that is sufficient to provide valuable additional information. The CO2 Monitoring Mission (CO2M), planned as a constellation of satellites measuring column-integrated atmospheric CO2 concentration (XCO2), is expected to become a key component of such an MVS capacity. Here we provide a novel assessment of the potential of a comprehensive data assimilation system using simulated XCO2 and other observations to constrain fossil fuel CO2 emission estimates for an exemplary 1-week period in 2008. We find that CO2M enables useful weekly estimates of country-scale fossil fuel emissions independent of national inventories. When extrapolated from the weekly to the annual scale, uncertainties in emissions are comparable to uncertainties in inventories, so that estimates from inventories and from the MVS capacity can be used for mutual verification. We further demonstrate an alternative, synergistic mode of operation, with the purpose of delivering a best fossil fuel emission estimate. In this mode, the assimilation system uses not only XCO2 and the other data streams of the previous (verification) mode, but also the inventory information. Finally, we identify further steps towards an operational MVS capacity.

Assessment of radiocarbon observations for constraining fossil fuel emissions in a comprehensive Carbon Cycle Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans W. Chen ◽  
Marko Scholze ◽  
Thomas Kaminski ◽  
Michael Vossbeck ◽  
Peter Rayner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Open Questions ◽  
Observation Network ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

<p>Estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from atmospheric measurement-based "top-down" methods is complicated by strong and uncertain fluxes from natural systems, for example carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) sources and sinks from the terrestrial biosphere.  Additional tracers such as radiocarbon are promising for disentangling the different emission contributions from human activity and natural systems.  However, many open questions remain about how different uncertainties in the modeling and observation of these tracers influence the emission estimates.</p><p>Here we assess the potential benefits of using radiocarbon observations to constrain global fossil fuel emissions in a Carbon Cycle Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System (CCFFDAS).  We performed sensitivity experiments to quantify how uncertainties in the observations and models affect the uncertainties in the derived emissions, including different prior assumptions about natural and anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes and varying observation networks.  Further, we demonstrate how radiocarbon observations can complement the existing CO<sub>2</sub> observation network.</p>

scholarly journals Current systematic carbon-cycle observations and the need for implementing a policy-relevant carbon observing system

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 3547-3602 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Ciais ◽  
A. J. Dolman ◽  
A. Bombelli ◽  
R. Duren ◽  
A. Peregon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Observation System ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Current State ◽  
Spatial Coverage

Abstract. A globally integrated carbon observation and analysis system is needed to improve the fundamental understanding of the global carbon cycle, to improve our ability to project future changes, and to verify the effectiveness of policies aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration. Building an integrated carbon observation system requires transformational advances from the existing sparse, exploratory framework towards a dense, robust, and sustained system in all components: anthropogenic emissions, the atmosphere, the ocean, and the terrestrial biosphere. The paper is addressed to scientists, policymakers, and funding agencies who need to have a global picture of the current state of the (diverse) carbon observations. We identify the current state of carbon observations, and the needs and notional requirements for a global integrated carbon observation system that can be built in the next decade. A key conclusion is the substantial expansion of the ground-based observation networks required to reach the high spatial resolution for CO2 and CH4 fluxes, and for carbon stocks for addressing policy-relevant objectives, and attributing flux changes to underlying processes in each region. In order to establish flux and stock diagnostics over areas such as the southern oceans, tropical forests, and the Arctic, in situ observations will have to be complemented with remote-sensing measurements. Remote sensing offers the advantage of dense spatial coverage and frequent revisit. A key challenge is to bring remote-sensing measurements to a level of long-term consistency and accuracy so that they can be efficiently combined in models to reduce uncertainties, in synergy with ground-based data. Bringing tight observational constraints on fossil fuel and land use change emissions will be the biggest challenge for deployment of a policy-relevant integrated carbon observation system. This will require in situ and remotely sensed data at much higher resolution and density than currently achieved for natural fluxes, although over a small land area (cities, industrial sites, power plants), as well as the inclusion of fossil fuel CO2 proxy measurements such as radiocarbon in CO2 and carbon-fuel combustion tracers. Additionally, a policy-relevant carbon monitoring system should also provide mechanisms for reconciling regional top-down (atmosphere-based) and bottom-up (surface-based) flux estimates across the range of spatial and temporal scales relevant to mitigation policies. In addition, uncertainties for each observation data-stream should be assessed. The success of the system will rely on long-term commitments to monitoring, on improved international collaboration to fill gaps in the current observations, on sustained efforts to improve access to the different data streams and make databases interoperable, and on the calibration of each component of the system to agreed-upon international scales.

Compatible Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions in the CMIP6 Earth System Models’ Historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway experiments of the 21st Century

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-72
Author(s):  
Spencer K. Liddicoat ◽  
Andy J. Wiltshire ◽  
Chris D. Jones ◽  
Vivek K. Arora ◽  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Emission Rates ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
System Models ◽  
Earth System Models ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

AbstractWe present the compatible CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and industry, calculated from the historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) experiments of nine Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multi-model mean FF emissions match the historical record well and are close to the data-based estimate of cumulative emissions (392±63 GtC vs 400±20 GtC respectively). Only two models fall inside the observed uncertainty range; while two exceed the upper bound, five fall slightly below the lower bound, due primarily to the plateau in CO2 concentration in the 1940s. The ESMs’ diagnosed FF emission rates are consistent with those generated by the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) from which the SSPs’ CO2 concentration pathways were constructed; the simpler IAMs’ emissions lie within the ESMs’ spread for seven of the eight SSP experiments, the other being only marginally lower, providing confidence in the relationship between the IAMs’ FF emission rates and concentration pathways. The ESMs require fossil fuel emissions to reduce to zero and subsequently become negative in SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4 and SSP5-3.4over. We also present the ocean and land carbon cycle responses of the ESMs in the historical and SSP scenarios. The models’ ocean carbon cycle responses are in close agreement, but there is considerable spread in their land carbon cycle responses. Land use and land cover change emissions have a strong influence over the magnitude of diagnosed fossil fuel emissions, with the suggestion of an inverse relationship between the two.

scholarly journals Variability and budget of CO<sub>2</sub> in Europe: analysis of the CAATER airborne campaigns – Part 1: Observed variability

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 5655-5672 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Xueref-Remy ◽  
C. Messager ◽  
D. Filippi ◽  
M. Pastel ◽  
P. Nedelec ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Back Trajectory ◽  
Free Troposphere ◽  
The West ◽  
Back Trajectories ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Airborne Measurements ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Abstract. Atmospheric airborne measurements of CO2 are very well suited for estimating the time-varying distribution of carbon sources and sinks at the regional scale due to the large geographical area covered over a short time. We present here an analysis of two cross-European airborne campaigns carried out on 23–26 May 2001 (CAATER-1) and 2–3 October 2002 (CAATER-2) over Western Europe. The area covered during CAATER-1 and CAATER-2 was 4° W to 14° E long; 44° N to 52° N lat and 1° E to 17° E long; 46° N to 52° N lat respectively. High precision in situ CO2, CO and Radon 222 measurements were recorded. Flask samples were collected during both campaigns to cross-validate the in situ data. During CAATER-1 and CAATER-2, the mean CO2 concentration was 370.1 ± 4.0 (1-σ standard deviation) ppm and 371.7 ± 5.0 (1-σ) ppm respectively. A HYSPLIT back-trajectories analysis shows that during CAATER 1, northwesterly winds prevailed. In the planetary boundary layer (PBL) air masses became contaminated over Benelux and Western Germany by emissions from these highly urbanized areas, reaching about 380 ppm. Air masses passing over rural areas were depleted in CO2 because of the photosynthesis activity of the vegetation, with observations as low as 355 ppm. During CAATER-2, the back-trajectory analysis showed that air masses were distributed among the 4 sectors. Air masses were enriched in CO2 and CO over anthropogenic emission spots in Germany but also in Poland, as these countries have part of the most CO2-emitting coal-based plants in Europe. Simultaneous measurements of in situ CO2 and CO combined with back-trajectories helped us to distinguish between fossil fuel emissions and other CO2 sources. The ΔCO/ΔCO2 ratios (R2 = 0.33 to 0.88, slopes = 2.42 to 10.37), calculated for anthropogenic-influenced air masses over different countries/regions matched national inventories quite well, showing that airborne measurements can help to identify the origin of fossil fuel emissions in the PBL even when distanced by several days/hundreds of kms from their sources. We have compared airborne CO2 observations to nearby ground station measurements and thereby, confirmed that measurements taken in the lower few meters of the PBL (low-level ground stations) are representative of the local scale, while those located in the free troposphere (FT) (moutain stations) are representative of atmospheric CO2 regionally on a scale of a few hundred kilometers. Stations located several 100 km away from each other differ from a few ppm in their measurements indicating the existence of a gradient within the free troposphere. Observations at stations located on top of small mountains may match the airborne data if the sampled air comes from the FT rather than coming up from the valley. Finally, the analysis of the CO2 vertical variability conducted on the 14 profiles recorded in each campaign shows a variability at least 5 to 8 times higher in the PBL (the 1-σ standard deviation associated to the CO2 mean of all profiles within the PBL is 4.0 ppm and 5.7 ppm for CAATER-1 and CAATER-2, respectively) than in the FT (within the FT, 1-σ is 0.5 ppm and 1.1 ppm for CAATER-1 and CAATER-2, respectively). The CO2 jump between the PBL and the FT equals 3.7 ppm for the first campaign and −0.3 ppm for the second campaign. A very striking zonal CO2 gradient of about 11 ppm was observed in the mid-PBL during CAATER-2, with higher concentrations in the west than in the east. This gradient may originate from differences in atmospheric mixing, ground emission rates or Autumn's earlier start in the west. More airborne campaigns are currently under analysis in the framework of the CARBOEUROPE-IP project to better assess the likelihood of these different hypotheses. In a companion paper (Xueref-Remy et al., 2011, Part 2), a comparison of vertical profiles from observations and several modeling frameworks was conducted for both campaigns.

Constraining predictions of the carbon cycle using data

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1943) ◽  
pp. 1955-1966 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Rayner ◽  
E. Koffi ◽  
M. Scholze ◽  
T. Kaminski ◽  
J.-L. Dufresne
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Atmospheric Measurements ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Linearized Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

We use a carbon-cycle data assimilation system to estimate the terrestrial biospheric CO 2 flux until 2090. The terrestrial sink increases rapidly and the increase is stronger in the presence of climate change. Using a linearized model, we calculate the uncertainty in the flux owing to uncertainty in model parameters. The uncertainty is large and is dominated by the impact of soil moisture on heterotrophic respiration. We show that this uncertainty can be greatly reduced by constraining the model parameters with two decades of atmospheric measurements.

scholarly journals Spatial distribution of Δ<sup>14</sup>CO<sub>2</sub> across Eurasia: measurements from the TROICA-8 expedition

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 15207-15238
Author(s):  
J. C. Turnbull ◽  
J. B. Miller ◽  
S. J. Lehman ◽  
D. Hurst ◽  
P. P. Tans ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Monoxide ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Eastern Siberia ◽  
Sulphur Hexafluoride ◽  
Atmospheric Measurements ◽  
Northern Asia ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Abstract. Because fossil fuel derived CO2 is the only source of atmospheric CO2 that is devoid of 14C, atmospheric measurements of Δ14CO2 can be used to constrain fossil fuel emissions at local and regional scales. However, at the continental scale, atmospheric transport and other sources of variability in Δ14CO2 may influence the fossil fuel detection capability. We present a set of Δ14CO2 observations from the train-based TROICA-8 expedition across Eurasia in March–April 2004. Local perturbations in Δ14CO2 are caused by easily identifiable sources from nuclear reactors and localized pollution events. The remaining data show an increase in Δ14CO2 from Western Russia (40° E) to Eastern Siberia (120° E), consistent with depletion in 14CO2 caused by fossil fuel CO2 emissions in heavily populated Europe, and gradual dispersion of the fossil fuel plume across Northern Asia. Other tracer gas species which may be correlated with fossil fuel CO2 emissions, including carbon monoxide, sulphur hexafluoride, and perchloroethylene, were also measured and the results compared with the Δ14CO2 measurements. The sulphur hexafluoride longitudinal gradient is not significant relative to the measurement uncertainty. Carbon monoxide and perchloroethylene show large-scale trends of enriched values in Western Russia and decreasing values in Eastern Siberia, consistent with fossil fuel emissions, but exhibit significant spatial variability, especially near their primary sources in Western Russia. The clean air Δ14CO2 observations are compared with simulated spatial gradients from the TM5 atmospheric transport model. We show that the change in Δ14CO2 across the TROICA transect is due almost entirely to emissions of fossil fuel CO2, but that the magnitude of this Δ14CO2 gradient is relatively insensitive to modest uncertainties in the fossil fuel flux. In contrast, the Δ14CO2 gradient is strongly sensitive to the modeled representation of vertical mixing, suggesting that Δ14CO2 may be a useful tracer for training mixing in atmospheric transport models.

Assessing the constraint of the CO2 monitoring mission on fossil fuel emissions from power plants and a city in a regional carbon cycle fossil fuel data assimilation system

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Kaminski ◽  
Marko Scholze ◽  
Peter Rayner ◽  
Sander Houweling ◽  
Michael Voßbeck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
The Other ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Atmospheric Measurements ◽  
Co2 Monitoring ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

&lt;p&gt;The Paris Agreement foresees to establish a transparency framework that builds upon inventory-based national greenhouse gas emission reports, complemented by independent emission estimates derived from atmospheric measurements through inverse modelling. The capability of such a Monitoring and Verification Support (MVS) capacity to constrain fossil fuel emissions to a sufficient extent has not yet been assessed. The CO2 Monitoring Mission (CO2M), planned as a constellation of satellites measuring column-integrated atmospheric CO2 concentration (XCO2), is expected to become a key component of an MVS capacity.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here we present a CCFFDAS that operates at the resolution of the CO2M sensor, i.e. 2km by 2km, over a 200 km by 200 km region around Berlin. It combines models of sectorial fossil fuel CO2 emissions and biospheric fluxes with the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (coupled to a model of the plume rise from large power plants) as observation operator for XCO2 and tropospheric column NO2 measurements. Inflow from the domain boundaries is treated as extra unknown to be solved for by the CCFFDAS, which also includes prior information on the process model parameters. We discuss the sensitivities (Jacobian matrix) of simulated XCO2 and NO2 troposheric columns with respect to a) emissions from power plants, b) emissions from the surface and c) the lateral inflow and quantify the respective contributions to the observed signal. The Jacobian representation of the complete modelling chain allows us to evaluate data sets of simulated random and systematic CO2M errors in terms of posterior uncertainties in sectorial fossil fuel emissions. We provide assessments of XCO2 alone and in combination with NO2 on the posterior uncertainty in sectorial fossil fuel emissions for two 1-day study periods, one in winter and one in summer. We quantify the added value of the observations for emissions at a single point, at the 2km by 2km scale, at the scale of Berlin districts, and for &amp;#160;Berlin and further cities in our domain. This means the assessments include temporal and spatial scales typically not covered by inventories. Further, we quantify the effect of better information of atmospheric aerosol, provided by a multi-angular polarimeter (MAP) onboard CO2M, on the posterior uncertainties.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The assessments differentiate the fossil fuel CO2 emissions into two sectors, an energy generation sector (power plants) and the complement, which we call &amp;#8220;other sector&amp;#8221;. We find that XCO2 measurements alone provide a powerful constraint on emissions from larger power plants and a constraint on emissions from the other sector that increases when aggregated to larger spatial scales. The MAP improves the impact of the CO2M measurements for all power plants and for the other sector on all spatial scales. Over our study domain, the impact of the MAP is particularly high in winter. NO2 measurements provide a powerful additional constraint on the emissions from power plants and from the other sector.&lt;/p&gt;

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