scholarly journals Forecasting of Kharif Cereal Production in Odisha by Using Spline Regression Technique

2021 ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
Harsha S. Basanaik ◽  
Abhiram Dash
Keyword(s):  
Cross Validation ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
The State ◽  
Spline Regression ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Fit Statistics ◽  
Policy And Strategy ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ordinary Regression ◽  
Best Fit

Cereals are prime determinant of agricultural status of the state mainly during kharif season. Forecasting of the production of kharif cereals is of utmost importance to formulate the agricultural policy and strategy of the state. The ARIMA model can be reliably used to forecast for short future periods because uncertainty in prediction increases when done for longer future periods. The predictions obtained from the ordinary regression model are valid only when the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable does not change significantly in the future period which can be rarely assumed. It is expected that the spline regression will overcome the respective discrepancies in both ARIMA and ordinary regression techniques of forecasting with the assumption that the future period which needs forecasting follows the same pattern as the last partitioned period. The entire period of data is split into different periods based on the scatter plot of the data The suitable regression models, such as, linear, compound, logarithmic and power model are fitted to the data on area and yield of kharif cereals by using the training set data. Selection of best fit model is done on the basis of overall significance of the model, model diagnostic test for error assumptions and model fit statistics. The selected best fit model is then cross validated with the testing set data. After successful cross validation of the selected best fit models, they are used for forecasting of the future values for their respective variables. The models found to be best fit and thus selected for cross validation purpose are compound spline model for both area and yield of kharif cereals respectively. Forecasting of area, yield and hence production of kharif cereals for six years ahead i.e., for the year 2020-21 to 2025-26 by using the selected best fit model after successful cross validation. The forecast values for production of kharif cereals are found to decrease despite increase in forecast values of yield which is due to decrease in forecast value of area.

Obecny stan badań nad Zagładą na Ukrainie

2014 ◽  
pp. 889-915
Author(s):  
Anna Abakunkova
Keyword(s):  
Future Development ◽  
The State ◽  
Significant Part ◽  
Educational Organizations ◽  
Major Research ◽  
Holocaust Studies ◽  
The Holocaust ◽  
The Future

The article examines the state of the Holocaust historiography in Ukraine for the period of 2010 – beginning of 2014. The review analyzes activities of major research and educational organizations in Ukraine which have significant part of projects devoted to the Holocaust; main publications and discussions on the Holocaust in Ukraine, including publications of Ukrainian authors in academic European and American journals. The article illustrates contemporary tendencies and conditions of the Holocaust Studies in Ukraine, defines major problems and shows perspectives of the future development of the Holocaust historiography in Ukraine.

Collective Memory: Between Values and Historical Knowledge

2020 ◽  
pp. 124-142
Author(s):  
VICTOR BURLACHUK
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Collective Memory ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
The State ◽  
Main Element ◽  
Rapid Decline ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future

At the end of the twentieth century, questions of a secondary nature suddenly became topical: what do we remember and who owns the memory? Memory as one of the mental characteristics of an individual’s activity is complemented by the concept of collective memory, which requires a different method of analysis than the activity of a separate individual. In the 1970s, a situation arose that gave rise to the so-called "historical politics" or "memory politics." If philosophical studies of memory problems of the 30’s and 40’s of the twentieth century were focused mainly on the peculiarities of perception of the past in the individual and collective consciousness and did not go beyond scientific discussions, then half a century later the situation has changed dramatically. The problem of memory has found its political sound: historians and sociologists, politicians and representatives of the media have entered the discourse on memory. Modern society, including all social, ethnic and family groups, has undergone a profound change in the traditional attitude towards the past, which has been associated with changes in the structure of government. In connection with the discrediting of the Soviet Union, the rapid decline of the Communist Party and its ideology, there was a collapse of Marxism, which provided for a certain model of time and history. The end of the revolutionary idea, a powerful vector that indicated the direction of historical time into the future, inevitably led to a rapid change in perception of the past. Three models of the future, which, according to Pierre Nora, defined the face of the past (the future as a restoration of the past, the future as progress and the future as a revolution) that existed until recently, have now lost their relevance. Today, absolute uncertainty hangs over the future. The inability to predict the future poses certain challenges to the present. The end of any teleology of history imposes on the present a debt of memory. Features of the life of memory, the specifics of its state and functioning directly affect the state of identity, both personal and collective. Distortion of memory, its incorrect work, and its ideological manipulation can give rise to an identity crisis. The memorial phenomenon is a certain political resource in a situation of severe socio-political breaks and changes. In the conditions of the economic crisis and in the absence of a real and clear program for future development, the state often seeks to turn memory into the main element of national consolidation.

Asymmetries of Spatial Contestations

Contention ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tareq Sydiq
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Future

Based on fieldwork carried out from 2017 and 2018, this article examines various attempts to both organize publicly and disrupt such attempts during the Iranian protests during that time. It argues that interference with spatial realities influenced the social coalitions built during the protests, impacting the capacity of actors to build such coalitions. The post-2009 adaptation of the state inhibited cross-class coalitions despite being challenged, while actors used spatial phrasing indicating they perceived spatial divisions to emulate political ones. Meanwhile, in the immediate aftermath of the December 2017 protests, further attempts to control protest actions impacted not only those who would be able to participate in such events in the future, but also those who felt represented by them and who would be likely to sympathize with them. Based on the spatial conditions under which coalitions form, I argue that asymmetrical contestations of spatiality determined the outcome of the December 2017 protests and may contribute to an understanding of how alliances in Iran will form in the future.

Comparative characteristics of educational stress and mental health of senior medicine students at different universities (results of an interregional study)

2020 ◽  
pp. 34-46
Author(s):  
Victoria Ruzhenkova ◽  
Irina Sheremet’eva ◽  
Viktor Ruzhenkov
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Medical Students ◽  
The State ◽  
Panic Attacks ◽  
Stress Factors ◽  
Anxiety And Depression ◽  
State University ◽  
The Future ◽  
Training Stress ◽  
Medical University

Stress negatively affects the mental health of students, causes anxiety and depression, leads to poor academic performance, lowers level of professional training and success in the future. The purpose of the research is to study the state of mental health of medical students to develop recommendations for the prevention of maladaptation. Materials and methods. 252 5-year students aged 20–29 (22 ± 1,1) years, 168 (66,7 %) females and 84 (33,3 %) males (137 students of Belgorod State University and 115 of Altay State Medical University (ASMU)) were examined by medico-sociological and psychometric methods. Results. It was established that every fifth student of the Belgorod State University and every third of the ASMU did not enter the medical university on their own initiative. Less than half (43 %) of Belgorod State University students and 30.4 % of the ASMU ones are convinced that the choice of profession was correct, 35 and 37.4 % are, consequently, completely disappointed with it. Students of Belgorod State University dealt with training stress factors poorer and, as a result, have more pronounced mental symptoms of training stress, difficulties in organizing the daily regimen, irregular nutrition, and fear of the future. Regardless of the region of studying, the number of students not committed to the medical profession, after 5 years of study, is more than 3 times higher among those who enter the university not on their own initiative. Students of the ASMU hit substances, skipped classes, played computer games and took sedative drugs more often to overcome academic stress. The degree of anxiety before the exams in students of Belgorod State University was higher (9 points) than in their peers from the State Medical University (7 points). An extremely high (8–10 points) level of anxiety before exams was characteristic of 75,9 and 44,3 % of students, respectively. The former were more likely to experience clinically significant panic attacks: 27,7 and 6,1 %. Conclusion. Given the high incidence of social phobia (19,1–24,1 %), depression (22,6–32,2 %) and anxiety (21,9– 27,8 %) among medical students, the development and implementation of psycho-correctional programs aimed at the formation of adaptive ways to overcome stress, reduce anxiety and depression is required. This will prevent the development of psychosomatic disorders and addictions.

PANCASILA DAN IDENTITAS KE-INDONESIA-AN: Sebuah Catatan Krisis

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Muchid Albintani
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Identity Crisis ◽  
The State ◽  
The Future ◽  
Electoral Regime ◽  
National Consensus

The term there is no legislation under development of Pancasila as the basis of the state, but theposition of Pancasila is unshakeable. The anti-Pancasila attitude must also be anti-diversity that can live as a nation and a state [national crises]. Without affirmation or not in the legislation, Pancasila is the ‘foundation and ideology of the state’. Based on the fact that there is irrelevant when the question arises, whether Pancasila is still needed as the basis of state and nation, or is Pancasila still needed as a source of national law that explicitly needs to be affirmed into the1945 Constitution and the sanctions of Pancasila tabulatively? This paper is an assertion of [reinforcement] of the Pencasila as an ideology into the 1945 Constitution or not, highly dependent on the winning electoral regime and the ‘election-winning political party’. Pancasila as ‘the foundation and ideology of the state’ becomes the determinant of ‘as close as the regime of the results of the practice of direct democracy’. Therefore, the affirmation of the essentials in building a lasting and harmonious life of fellow children of the nation in the future. Recognizing the reintroduction of the Indonesia’s identity of essence of Pancasila as the ideology of nation and state is based on ‘national consensus’. This awareness is resilient, so that a country that has been established for more than 73 years does not experience an identity crisis. 

A Brief Statement on the Future of Public Scholarship and the Research Methods Landscape

2019 ◽  
pp. 700-707
Author(s):  
Patricia Leavy
Keyword(s):  
Research Methods ◽  
Teaching Practices ◽  
Knowledge Building ◽  
Research Community ◽  
The State ◽  
Public Scholarship ◽  
Institutional Structures ◽  
The Future ◽  
Book Editor

The book editor offers some final comments about the state of the field and promise for the future. Leavy suggests researchers consider using the language of “shapes” to talk about the forms their research takes and to highlight the ongoing role of the research community in shaping knowledge-building practices. She reviews the challenges and rewards of taking your work public. Leavy concludes by noting that institutional structures need to evolve their rewards criteria in order to meet the demands of practicing contemporary research and suggests that professors update their teaching practices to bring the audiences of research into the forefront of discussions of methodology.

scholarly journals A Roadmap for Genome-Based Phage Taxonomy

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 506
Author(s):  
Dann Turner ◽  
Andrew M. Kropinski ◽  
Evelien M. Adriaenssens
Keyword(s):  
Genome Sequencing ◽  
Classification System ◽  
The State ◽  
Family Level ◽  
The Future

Bacteriophage (phage) taxonomy has been in flux since its inception over four decades ago. Genome sequencing has put pressure on the classification system and recent years have seen significant changes to phage taxonomy. Here, we reflect on the state of phage taxonomy and provide a roadmap for the future, including the abolition of the order Caudovirales and the families Myoviridae, Podoviridae, and Siphoviridae. Furthermore, we specify guidelines for the demarcation of species, genus, subfamily and family-level ranks of tailed phage taxonomy.

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