A Tested Method for Assessing and Predicting Weather-Crime Associations

Few studies have focused on haze as a weather element and its correlation with crime. In this study, we examined haze as a weather variable to investigate its effects on criminal activity. We used both monthly crime data and weather records to build a regression model to predict crime cases considering three weather factors; temperature, humidity and haze. We applied this model in two different climate provinces in Saudi Arabia, namely, Riyadh and Makkah. Riyadh is a desert area and observes haze approximately 17 days per month on average, while Makkah is a coastal area observing haze an average of 4 days per month. We found a measurable relationship between each of these three variables and criminal activity. However, haze had the most effect on theft, drug and assault crimes in Riyadh compared to the other elements. Temperature and humidity have a significant relationship with crime in Makkah, while haze had no significant influence in that region.

The Association Between Weather and Spontaneous Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: An Analysis of 155 US Hospitals

BACKGROUND: A seasonal and meteorological influence on the incidence of spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) has been suggested, but a consensus in the literature has yet to emerge. OBJECTIVE: This study examines the impact of weather patterns on the incidence of SAH using a geographically broad analysis of hospital admissions and represents the largest study of the topic to date. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed SAH admissions to 155 US hospitals during the calendar years 2004 to 2008 (N = 7758). Daily weather readings for temperature, pressure, and humidity were obtained for the same period from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather stations located near each hospital. The daily values of each weather variable were associated with the daily volume of SAH admissions using a combination of correlation and time-series analyses. RESULTS: No seasonal trends were observed in the monthly volume of SAH admissions during the study period. No significant correlation was detected between the daily SAH admission volume and the day's weather, the previous day's weather, or the 24-hour weather change. CONCLUSION: This study represents the most comprehensive investigation of the association between weather and spontaneous SAH to date. The results suggest that neither season nor weather significantly influences the incidence of SAH.

Aviation System Performance During the Summer Convective Weather Season

This paper analyzes recent trends related to delays, airborne holding and diversions in the National Airspace System (NAS) during the summer convective weather season. A weather variable is introduced to help analyze these performance metrics in a way that factors out differences in the location and intensity of thunderstorms. Regression analysis indicates a nearly 50% increase in flights delayed more than an hour from summer 2003 to 2005. The increase in delay is associated with a growing concentration of flights at busy hub airports over the past five years.

A Distributed Lag Analysis of the Relationship Between Gibberella zeae Inoculum Density on Wheat Spikes and Weather Variables

In an effort to characterize the association between weather variables and inoculum of Gibberella zeae in wheat canopies, spikes were sampled and assayed for pathogen propagules from plots established in Indiana, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Manitoba between 1999 and 2005. Inoculum abundance was quantified as the daily number of colony forming units per spike (CFU/spike). A total of 49 individual weather variables for 24-h periods were generated from measurements of ambient weather data. Polynomial distributed lag regression analysis, followed by linear mixed model analysis, was used to (i) identify weather variables significantly related to log-transformed CFU/spike (the response variable; Y), (ii) determine the time window (i.e., lag length) over which each weather variable affected Y, (iii) determine the form of the relationship between each weather variable and Y (defined in terms of the polynomial degree for the relationship between the parameter weights for the weather variables and the time lag involved), and (iv) account for location-specific effects and random effects of years within locations on the response variable. Both location and year within location affected the magnitude of Y, but there was no consistent trend in Y over time. Y on each day was significantly and simultaneously related to weather variables on the day of sampling and on the 8 days prior to sampling (giving a 9-day time window). The structural relationship corresponded to polynomial degrees of 0, 1, or 2, generally showing a smooth change in the parameter weights and time lag. Moisture- (e.g., relative humidity-) related variables had the strongest relationship with Y, but air temperature- and rainfall-related variables also significantly affected Y. The overall marginal effect of each weather variable on Y was positive. Thus, local weather conditions can be utilized to improve estimates of spore density on wheat spikes around the time of flowering.

The Sensitivity of the Epidemic Growth Rate to Weather Variables, with an Application to Yellow Rust on Wheat

We first show how to estimate the exponential epidemic growth rate, r, for different combinations of three weather variables. Then we derive a method to quantify the sensitivity of r to a weather variable as a function of the pathogen life cycle variables of latent period, basic reproductive number, and the mean and standard deviation of the sporulation curve. The method can be used to identify the most important weather variable and pathogen life cycle component in terms of epidemic progress. The method is applied to yellow rust, caused by Puccinia striiformis, on winter wheat. We conclude that the most important weather variable for the progress of yellow rust is temperature, followed by dew period and light quantity. By far, the most important pathogen life cycle component is the basic reproductive number, especially at low and high temperatures. This disagrees with the general view that latent period is the most important variable at low temperatures. We discuss explanations of this.

The Chaplin collection DVDs

Not surprisingly, more than two dozen Chaplin titles have already been published on DVD. Their quality is, like the weather, variable. The 2003 publication of the massive two-volume The Chaplin Collection by MK2 (the prodigious French producer Marin Karmitz) and Warner Brothers, is what film lovers have been waiting for: a virtually complete collection of Chaplin's features (only the 1967 A Countess from Hong Kong is not included) on a high-quality digital transfer from the Chaplin family film vault....