Dynamic decision policy reconfiguration under outcome uncertainty

In uncertain or unstable environments, sometimes the best decision is to change your mind. To shed light on this flexibility, we evaluated how the underlying decision policy adapts when the most rewarding action changes. Human participants performed a dynamic two-armed bandit task that manipulated the certainty in relative reward (conflict) and the reliability of action-outcomes (volatility). Continuous estimates of conflict and volatility contributed to shifts in exploratory states by changing both the rate of evidence accumulation (drift rate) and the amount of evidence needed to make a decision (boundary height), respectively. At the trialwise level, following a switch in the optimal choice, the drift rate plummets and the boundary height weakly spikes, leading to a slow exploratory state. We find that the drift rate drives most of this response, with an unreliable contribution of boundary height across experiments. Surprisingly, we find no evidence that pupillary responses associated with decision policy changes. We conclude that humans show a stereotypical shift in their decision policies in response to environmental changes.

Adversarial Attack for Uncertainty Estimation: Identifying Critical Regions in Neural Networks

We propose a novel method to capture data points near decision boundary in neural network that are often referred to a specific type of uncertainty. In our approach, we sought to perform uncertainty estimation based on the idea of adversarial attack method. In this paper, uncertainty estimates are derived from the input perturbations, unlike previous studies that provide perturbations on the model's parameters as in Bayesian approach. We are able to produce uncertainty with couple of perturbations on the inputs. Interestingly, we apply the proposed method to datasets derived from blockchain. We compare the performance of model uncertainty with the most recent uncertainty methods. We show that the proposed method has revealed a significant outperformance over other methods and provided less risk to capture model uncertainty in machine learning.

Machine learning with asymmetric abstention for biomedical decision-making

Machine learning and artificial intelligence have entered biomedical decision-making for diagnostics, prognostics, or therapy recommendations. However, these methods need to be interpreted with care because of the severe consequences for patients. In contrast to human decision-making, computational models typically make a decision also with low confidence. Machine learning with abstention better reflects human decision-making by introducing a reject option for samples with low confidence. The abstention intervals are typically symmetric intervals around the decision boundary. In the current study, we use asymmetric abstention intervals, which we demonstrate to be better suited for biomedical data that is typically highly imbalanced. We evaluate symmetric and asymmetric abstention on three real-world biomedical datasets and show that both approaches can significantly improve classification performance. However, asymmetric abstention rejects as many or fewer samples compared to symmetric abstention and thus, should be used in imbalanced data.

The Effect of Navigation Demand on Decision Making in a Dynamic, Sport-Inspired Virtual Environment

Athletes commonly make decisions about the passability of closing gaps when navigating sport environments. This study examined whether increased temporal pressure to arrive at a desired location modifies these decisions. Thirty participants navigated toward a waypoint in a virtual, sport-inspired environment. To do so, they had to decide whether they could pass through closing gaps of virtual humans (and take the shortest route) or steer around them (and take a longer route). The decision boundary of participants who were time pressured to arrive at a waypoint was biased toward end gaps of smaller sizes and was less reliably defined, resulting in a higher number of collisions. Effects of temporal pressure were minimized with experience in the experimental task. Results indicate that temporal pressure affects perceptual–motor processes supporting information pickup and shapes the information–action coupling that drives compliance with navigation demands. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.