Investigating the Compatibility of IRI and ASAPS Models in Predicting the foF2 Ionospheric Parameter over the Mid Latitude Region

In this research, an investigation for the compatibility of the IRI-2016 and ASAPS international models was conducted to evaluate their accuracy in predicting the ionospheric critical frequency parameter (foF2) for the years 2009 and 2014 that represent the minimum and maximum years of solar cycle 24. The calculations of the monthly average foF2 values were performed for three different selected stations distributed over the mid-latitude region. These stations are Athens - Greece (23.7o E, 37.9 o N), El Arenosillo - Spain (-6.78 o E, 37.09 o N), and Je Ju - South Korea (124.53 o E, 33.6 o N). The calculated values using the two tested models were compared with the observed foF2 datasets for each of the three selected locations. The results showed that the two tested models gave good and close results for all selected stations compared to the observed data for the studied period of time. At the minimum solar cycle 24, the ASAPS model showed in general better values than the IRI-2016 model at Athens, El Arenosillo and Je Ju stations for all tested methods. At maximum solar cycle 24, the IRI-2016 model showed higher and closer values to the observed data at Athens and El Arenosillo stations, while the ASAPS model showed better values at Je Ju station.

Hybrid Model for Time Series of Complex Structure with ARIMA Components

A hybrid model for the time series of complex structure (HMTS) was proposed. It is based on the combination of function expansions in a wavelet series with ARIMA models. HMTS has regular and anomalous components. The time series components, obtained after expansion, have a simpler structure that makes it possible to identify the ARIMA model if the components are stationary. This allows us to obtain a more accurate ARIMA model for a time series of complicated structure and to extend the area for application. To identify the HMTS anomalous component, threshold functions are applied. This paper describes a technique to identify HMTS and proposes operations to detect anomalies. With the example of an ionospheric parameter time series, we show the HMTS efficiency, describe the results and their application in detecting ionospheric anomalies. The HMTS was compared with the nonlinear autoregression neural network NARX, which confirmed HMTS efficiency.

Observations of resonant scattering in the thermosphere and upper mesosphere in the winter season of 2021

An analysis of the Kamchatka lidar station data obtained in January-February 2021 is presented. Pronounced light scattering layers at altitudes of 300 km have been detected. Layers at these heights appear during precipitation of electrons with energies of about 300 eV. Analysis of the lidar data showed that increased light scattering was observed at the heights of the mesosphere, accompanied by an increase in the ionospheric parameter fmin. It was concluded that the observed aerosol formations in the mesopause region could be caused by precipitation of charged particles with energies of ∼ 500 keV. Aerosol formations in the area of 60-75 km should be recognized as imaginary. This is a manifestation of resonant scattering by excited ions of atomic nitrogen

Seasonal Variations of the Optimum Reliable Frequencies During Maximum and Minimum Periods of Solar Cycle 24

In this research, the seasonal Optimal Reliable Frequency (ORF) variations between different transmitter/receiver stations have been determined. Mosul, Baghdad, and Basra have been chosen as tested transmitting stations that located in the northern, center, and southern of Iraqi zone. In this research, the minimum and maximum years (2009 and 2014) of solar cycle 24 have been chosen to examine the effect of solar activity on the determined seasonal ORF parameter. Mathematical model has been proposed which leads to generate the Optimal Reliable Frequency that can maintain the seasonal connection links for different path lengths and bearings. The suggested ORF parameter represented by a different orders polynomial equation. The polynomial equation has been determined depending on different selected parameters (path length, bearing, time (day), months and BUF values). The suggested seasonal ORF parameter was examined for the three stations of the adopted years. The value of the seasonal ORF ionospheric parameter increased with the increase of path length and varies with the bearing between the transmitting and receiving stations also, the seasonal ORF values were higher at maximum solar cycle (2014) than the minimum solar cycle (2009).

First observations of the McMurdo–South Pole oblique ionospheric HF channel

We present the first observations from a new low-cost oblique ionosonde located in Antarctica. The transmitter is located at McMurdo Station, Ross Island, and the receiver at Amundsen–Scott Station, South Pole. The system was demonstrated successfully in March 2019, with the experiment yielding over 30 000 ionospheric echoes over a 2-week period. These data indicate the presence of a stable E layer and a sporadic and variable F layer with dramatic spread F of sometimes more than 500 km (in units of virtual height). The most important ionospheric parameter, NmF2, validates well against the Jang Bogo Vertical Incidence Pulsed Ionospheric (VIPIR) ionosonde (observing more than 1000 km away). GPS-derived TEC data from the Multi-Instrument Data Analysis Software (MIDAS) algorithm can be considered necessary but insufficient to predict 7.2 MHz propagation between McMurdo and the South Pole, yielding a true positive in 40 % of cases and a true negative in 73 % of cases. The success of this pilot experiment at a total grant cost of USD 116 000 and an equipment cost of ∼ USD 15 000 indicates that a large multi-static network could be built to provide unprecedented observational coverage of the Antarctic ionosphere.

First Observations of the McMurdo-South Pole Ionospheric HF Channel

We present the first observations from a new low-cost oblique ionosonde located in Antarctica. The transmitter is located at McMurdo Station, Ross Island and the receiver at Amundsen-Scott Station, South Pole. The system was demonstrated successfully in March 2019, with the experiment yielding over 30 000 ionospheric echoes over a two-week period. These data indicate the presence of a stable E-layer and a sporadic and variable F-layer with dramatic spread-F of sometimes more than 500 km (in units of virtual height). The most important ionospheric parameter, NmF2, validates well against the Jang Bogo VIPIR ionosonde (observing more than 1000 km away). GPS-derived TEC data from the MIDAS algorithm can be considered necessary but insufficient to predict 7.2 MHz propagation between McMurdo and South Pole, yielding a true positive in 40 % of cases and a true negative in 73 % of cases. The success of this pilot experiment at a total grant cost of $116k and an equipment cost of ~$15k indicates that a large multi-static network could be built to provide unprecedented observational coverage of the Antarctic ionosphere.