On the origins of the demographic transition: rethinking the European marriage pattern

Why did France experience the demographic transition first? This question remains one of the greatest puzzles of economics, demography, and economic history. The French pattern is hard to reconcile with elucidations of the process as found in other countries. The present analysis goes back to the roots of the process and offers novel ways of explaining why people started to control their fertility in France and how they did so. In this paper, I track the evolution of marriage patterns to a point before the premises of the demographic transition. I identify two distinct phases. Next, I rely on exploratory methods to classify French counties based on their discriminatory features. Five profiles emerge. I discuss these profiles through the lens of the French Revolution, one of the greatest events that ever occurred in French history, which irretrievably altered its society. In particular, the results show that the fertility transition was not as linear, but more complex than previous research had argued. They show the importance of accounting for cultural factors and for individuals’ predispositions to adapt more or less quickly to societal changes. Yet cultural factors are not all. They can help to explain the timing of the transition and the choice of methods used to control fertility, but modernity and gender equality are also needed to describe the mechanisms in play behind the process.

The Decline of Serfdom and the Origins of the ‘Little Divergence’

This chapter explores the main social and economic consequences of plague between the 1340s and the 1390s. In 1400 England was still not at the forefront of European economic development, but it was beginning to close the gap on the leaders. GDP per head, the proportion of people in non-agricultural employment, and the livestock share of agriculture had all increased irreversibly. Dependence upon the market for basic commodities and manufactures had increased, and population and taxable wealth were spread more equitably across the country, reducing the economic divide between the south-east and the rest of the country. Recent arguments that the European Marriage Pattern (EMP)—one of the main institutional characteristics of the Little Divergence—was established in England soon after the Black Death are assessed on the basis of the economic and demographic evidence. Serfdom had declined quickly and significantly, and the implications of the English experience for our understanding of the decline of European serfdom are explored. The main institutional changes in factor markets in general, and the spread of contractual arrangements in particular, are considered. By 1400 the main changes had worked their way through the economy, and further significant developments did not occur until population began to rise again in the sixteenth century.

Wretched girls, wretched boys and the European Marriage Pattern in England (c. 1250–1350)

Following on from ‘Married and not: Weston's grown children in 1268–1269’, this article places the Lincolnshire village of Weston within a realm-wide context to demonstrate that, as the rural economy stumbled after c. 1250, many young women and men either delayed marriage or could not marry at all. The European Marriage Pattern (late marriage for some and no marriage for others) can be discerned in England long before the socio-economic adjustments that followed the Black Death, and it grew mainly from poverty, not prosperity.

Capital Women

This book argues that the position of women in late medieval and early modern Europe was relatively strong. This, van Zanden, De Moor, and Carmichael argue, is evident from the fact that marriage was usually based on consensus, implying that women had a clear say in their marriage. The authors analyze the medieval roots of this European Marriage Pattern, demonstrating that it was much stronger in northwestern Europe than in the Mediterranean. That women had considerable agency was one of the factors behind the rise of Europe in the centuries before the Industrial Revolution. This had huge consequences for the average age of marriage (which was very high), fertility (which was restricted by the high age of marriage), human capital formation (resulting in high levels of numeracy and literacy), and labor-force participation by women. However, the authors also explore the negative effects of the European Marriage Pattern, such as the greater vulnerability of these relatively small families, and the large group of single women, subject to external shocks particularly in old age. Special institutions emerged, such as the beguinages, to cope with these pressures. Finally, by comparing these European households with household patterns in the rest of Eurasia, this book puts the European Marriage Pattern into global perspective.

Beguines

The beguine movement is a most remarkable phenomenon in the history of the Low Countries, but it still remains to be explained. The skewed sex ratio, diminished access to convents, and religious revival of the late Middle Ages seem insufficient to explain the movement in the long run. This chapter argues that the specific attitude toward women in the Low Countries that originated with the emergence of the European Marriage Pattern created a fertile and unique basis for the beguinages to develop: the beguinages may have offered women in the Low Countries safety and security if they chose to remain single.

The Broader Picture

This chapter introduces the concept of female agency and sets up the framework for the rest of the book. The authors explain how age at marriage can be an indicator of the degree of power a woman has in a relationship, as well as her role in society. This chapter argues that the European Marriage Pattern (free choice of marriage partner) played a fundamental role in the economic development of Western Europe, leading to the Industrial Revolution and a higher standard of living. The authors explore the contemporary situation, presenting correlations between marriage age and composite measures of gender equality, as well as zooming out to the global level to discuss differences in how women have fared in terms of human capital formation, access to the capital market, and participation in the labor market.