The Decline of Serfdom and the Origins of the ‘Little Divergence’
This chapter explores the main social and economic consequences of plague between the 1340s and the 1390s. In 1400 England was still not at the forefront of European economic development, but it was beginning to close the gap on the leaders. GDP per head, the proportion of people in non-agricultural employment, and the livestock share of agriculture had all increased irreversibly. Dependence upon the market for basic commodities and manufactures had increased, and population and taxable wealth were spread more equitably across the country, reducing the economic divide between the south-east and the rest of the country. Recent arguments that the European Marriage Pattern (EMP)—one of the main institutional characteristics of the Little Divergence—was established in England soon after the Black Death are assessed on the basis of the economic and demographic evidence. Serfdom had declined quickly and significantly, and the implications of the English experience for our understanding of the decline of European serfdom are explored. The main institutional changes in factor markets in general, and the spread of contractual arrangements in particular, are considered. By 1400 the main changes had worked their way through the economy, and further significant developments did not occur until population began to rise again in the sixteenth century.