Inference for epidemic models with time varying infection rates: tracking the dynamics of oak processionary moth in the UK

Invasive pests pose a great threat to forest, woodland and urban tree ecosystems. The oak processionary moth (OPM) is a destructive pest of oak trees, first reported in the UK in 2006. Despite great efforts to contain the outbreak within the original infested area of South-East England, OPM continues to spread. Here we analyse data of the numbers of OPM nests removed each year from two parks in London between 2013 and 2020. Using a state-of-the-art Bayesian inference scheme we estimate the parameters for a stochastic compartmental SIR (susceptible, infested, removed) model with a time varying infestation rate to describe the spread of OPM. We find that the infestation rate and subsequent basic reproduction number have remained constant since 2013 (with R_0 between one and two). This shows further controls must be taken to reduce R_0 below one and stop the advance of OPM into other areas of England. Our findings demonstrate the applicability of the SIR model to describing OPM spread and show that further controls are needed to reduce the infestation rate. The proposed statistical methodology is a powerful tool to explore the nature of a time varying infestation rate, applicable to other partially observed time series epidemic data.spread and show that further controls are needed to reduce the infestation rate. The proposed statistical methodology is a powerful tool to explore the nature of a time varying infestation rate, applicable to other partially observed time series epidemic data.

Thaumetopoea processionea (oak processionary moth).

T. processionea, commonly known as the oak processionary moth, is a major pest in many European countries and threatens the health of oak trees. The common and scientific names of T. processionea refer to the behaviour of the larvae to form long processions. The larvae cause severe defoliation, reducing the viability of oak trees. They also pose a risk to both human and animal health because they shed poisonous hairs, which can result in severe allergic reactions, amongst other health problems. The moth is native to central and southern Europe but is now present in almost all European countries and also in parts of the Middle East. EPPO issued a Pest Risk Analysis in 2007 for the UK in response to infestations of the species in Europe from 2006. At this time, infestations of the moth were observed on a range of oak (Quercus) species in London. The adult males are strong fliers and can fly long distances, such as from France to the UK (Evans, 2007). Host plants of this pest include many species of deciduous Quercus, and to a much lesser degree, Betula, Carpinus, Castanea, Corylus, Crataegus, Robinia and Fagus; plants commonly found in forests, woods or ornamental plantations in the UK, for example (Evans, 2007). Therefore, areas where these plants are present and offer a suitable climate for pest development are likely to be under threat from T. processionea. Various pines have been reported as hosts, but such records are suspect and are probably the result of confusion with the pine processionary (Thaumetopoea pityocampa).

Understanding Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change: An Explorative Study on the Development of Adaptation Strategies Relating to the Oak Processionary Moth in The Netherlands

Understanding of public health adaptation (PHA) to climate change and implementation is limited. This study therefore focuses on one specific PHA issue: adaptation to the oak processionary moth (OPM). The aim is to examine the development of OPM adaptation in order to offer a problem description of the complexities involved in OPM adaptation. In this explorative case study, we investigate adaptation strategies based on semi-structured interviews with 26 actors involved in OPM adaptation in The Netherlands. The results indicate that the context of OPM adaptation is relatively complex, given the involvement of many interdependent actors. OPM adaptation was developed with limited knowledge and strategies were based on ad hoc approaches in which there was ambiguity about tasks and expertise. In addition, different actors have different perceptions and values concerning health, sustainability, risks and responsibilities influencing decision-making processes, while also posing a challenge to collaboration and the development of a coordinated approach. The generation of knowledge and its translation into practical strategies calls for interdisciplinary cooperation in knowledge development. PHA adaptation involves more than technical and organisational solutions alone. It also entails the development of a shared problem perception and solution space in which citizens are also engaged.

Pests in the City: Managing Public Health Risks and Social Values in Response to Oak Processionary Moth (Thaumetopoea processionea) in the United Kingdom

Oak processionary moth (Thaumetopoea processionea) or OPM was accidentally introduced into London on imported oak trees and now poses a threat to the future of oak in the urban landscape. Early attempts at eradication of the moth failed and significant resources have since been spent by government on monitoring and controlling OPM (through the use of insecticides or bio-pesticides) as it spreads into new areas. OPM is regulated in the UK to minimize risk of new introductions and reduce spread. Surveying for OPM and issuing of statutory notices for control is based on a geographical system of core, control and protected zones. While OPM will defoliate the trees leaving them vulnerable to other pests and diseases and stress factors, the caterpillars can also harm people and animals via tiny urticating hairs with the potential for dermatological or respiratory impacts. However, the biggest threat to the iconic British oak may be that the perceived risks associated with OPM, and costs of management may lead land managers to fell their oak trees, and not plant oak in the future. There is a need to better understand awareness, risk perceptions and decision-making around OPM management. We use a conceptual framework to explore decision-making and the trade-offs between the social, economic and ecological values associated with oak trees, and assessment of risk related to both the moth and control options. Twenty nine interviews were conducted in two London boroughs and across Greater London and in some surrounding counties covering a range of land types (e.g., parks, school grounds, amenity areas and private gardens) with infested or non-infested oak. We found a lack of evidence of human health impacts from OPM although land managers were concerned about public duty of care and potential reputational damage if they do not manage OPM. To address the challenges of dealing with OPM, land managers were taking a risk-based approach and managing OPM where it posed the highest potential risk to people. Respondents expressed strong emotional attachments to oak but it also has high biodiversity value which can lead to difficult decisions about management options. A risk-based approach moves beyond a ‘one-size-fits-all’ control method and focuses available resources where they are most needed and socially acceptable. An approach that allows for multiple values and perspectives on risk may provide a more sustainable long-term option for OPM management to ensure the future of oak in the city.

Growth and mortality of the oak processionary moth, Thaumetopoea processionea L., on two oak species: direct and trait-mediated effects of host and neighbour species identity

The presence of heterospecific neighbours can affect damage caused by pest insects on focal plants. However, how plant neighbours influence herbivore performance is poorly understood. We tested the independent and interactive effects of tree species identity and tree neighbour type (conspecific vs. heterospecific) on the performance of a major oak pest, the oak processionary moth larvae (OPM, Thaumetopoea processionea) fed on Quercus robur and Q. petraea. We performed a factorial greenhouse experiment in which we grew two oak saplings per pot, either from the same species or from both species. We quantified growth and mortality of OPM larvae, leaf phenolic compounds, C:N ratio and bud phenology. OPM larvae performed significantly better on Q. petraea than on Q. robur, regardless of plant neighbour type. Phenolic compounds and C:N, but not phenology, differed between oak species and neighbour species identity. Only bud phenology had a significant effect on OPM performance, which was better when young larvae had access to recently unfolded leaves, regardless of oak species and neighbour identity. Although oak neighbour identity altered the expression of leaf traits, this effect had no measurable consequences on OPM performance. However, further studies should consider the effect of oak species neighbour on OPM preferences for either Q. robur or Q. petraea, in pure and mixed stands, before translating current results into recommendations for forest management.Author ContributionTD and BC conceived the study and acquired the data. TD performed experiment and analysed the data. EV, TD and XM performed the chemical analyses. TD and BC drafted the first version of the manuscript and all authors wrote the final version of the manuscript.TD, BC conceived and designed research. TD performed experiment and analysed data. EV, TD, XM performed the chemical analyses. TD, BC wrote the manuscript. All authors read and approved the manuscript.AM and DB conceived and designed research. AM and BB conducted experiments. GR contributed new reagents or analytical tools. AM, BB and GR analysed data. AM wrote the manuscript. All authors read and approved the manuscript.