Comparing management strategies for conserving communities of climate-threatened species with a stochastic metacommunity model

Many species are shifting their ranges to keep pace with climate change, but habitat fragmentation and limited dispersal could impede these range shifts. In the case of climate-vulnerable foundation species such as tropical reef corals and temperate forest trees, such limitations might put entire communities at risk of extinction. Restoring connectivity through corridors, stepping-stones, or enhanced quality of existing patches could prevent the extinction of several species, but dispersal-limited species might not benefit if other species block their dispersal. Alternatively, managers might relocate vulnerable species between habitats through assisted migration, but this is generally a species-by-species approach. To evaluate the relative efficacy of these strategies, we simulated the climate-tracking of species in randomized competitive metacommunities with alternative management interventions. We found that corridors and assisted migration were the most effective strategies at reducing extinction. Assisted migration was especially effective at reducing the extinction likelihood for short-dispersing species, but it often required moving several species repeatedly. Assisted migration was more effective at reducing extinction in environments with higher stochasticity, and corridors were more effective at reducing extinction in environments with lower stochasticity. We discuss the application of these approaches to an array of systems ranging from tropical corals to temperate forests.

A mammalian herbivore prefers locally adapted populations in a common garden: implications for climate change mitigation

Climate change is expected to alter habitat more rapidly than the pace of evolution, leading to tree populations that are maladapted to new local conditions. Assisted migration is a mitigation strategy that proposes preemptively identifying and planting genotypes that are robust to the expected climate change-induced alterations of an area. Assisted migration however, may impact the broader community, including herbivores which often coevolved with local plant genotypes and their defenses. Although this question has been examined in arthropod herbivores, few studies have assessed this question in mammalian herbivores, and fewer still have leveraged experimental design to disentangle the genetic contribution to herbivore preference.We examined the hypothesis that North American porcupine (Erethizon dorsatum) browsing on Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii) is under genetic control in a common garden, which allowed us to uncouple genetic and environmental contributions to browse preference.Generally, porcupines selected local trees and trees from climatically similar areas, where trees from local and cooler climate populations suffered over 2x more extensive herbivory than trees from warmer areas. Plant genotype was a significant factor for selection, with the most heavily browsed genotype having on average >10x more herbivory than the least heavily browsed. Because genotypes within and among populations were replicated, we calculated broad-sense heritability in which tree palatability by porcupines was H2B = 0.28 (95% CI: 0.13-0.48) among genotypes.Synthesis and applications. Our results indicate a genetic component to tree defenses against porcupine herbivory that can be predicted by the climate of the source population. This result has important implications for mammalian herbivores if climate change renders local tree genotypes maladaptive to new conditions. We recommend assisted migration efforts consider this implication and plant stock from both warmer and climatically similar areas to maintain genetic diversity in a changing environment, productivity and forage for mammalian herbivores.

Supercritical Accretion of Stellar-mass Compact Objects in Active Galactic Nuclei

Accretion disks of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) have been proposed as promising sites for producing both (stellar-mass) compact object mergers and extreme mass ratio inspirals. Along with disk-assisted migration, ambient gas inevitably accretes onto compact objects. In previous studies, it was commonly assumed that either an Eddington rate or a Bondi rate takes place, although they can differ by several orders of magnitude. As a result, the mass and spin evolution of compact objects within AGN disks are essentially unknown. In this work, we construct a relativistic supercritical inflow–outflow model for black hole (BH) accretion. We show that the radiation efficiency of the supercritical accretion of a stellar-mass BH (sBH) is generally too low to explain the proposed electromagnetic counterpart of GW 190521. Applying this model to sBHs embedded in AGN disks, we find that, although the gas inflow rates at Bondi radii of these sBHs are commonly highly super-Eddington, a large fraction of inflowing gas eventually escapes as outflows so that only a small fraction accretes onto the sBH, resulting in mildly super-Eddington BH absorption in most cases. We also apply this model to neutron stars (NSs) and white dwarfs (WDs) in AGN disks. It turns out to be difficult for WDs to grow to the Chandrasekhar limit via accretion because WDs are spun up more efficiently to reach the shedding limit before the Chandrasekhar limit. For NSs accretion-induced collapse is possible if NS magnetic fields are sufficiently strong to keep the NS slowly rotating during accretion.

Seedling Response to Simulated Browsing and Reduced Water Availability: Insights for Assisted Migration Plantations

To facilitate forest transition to future climate conditions, managers can use adaptive silvicultural tools, for example the assisted translocation of tree species and genotypes to areas with suitable future climate conditions (i.e., assisted migration). Like traditional plantations, however, assisted migration plantations are at risk of failure because of browsing by ungulate herbivores. The ability of seedlings to tolerate browsing could also be hampered by low water availability, as is expected under climate change. Using a greenhouse experiment with five eastern North American tree species, we evaluated the effects of simulated winter browsing and reduced water availability on the growth (total biomass, shoot:root ratio), survival, and chemical composition (nitrogen, total phenolics, flavonoids) of seedlings. We compared seedlings from three geographic provenances representing three climate analogues, i.e., locations with a current climate similar to the climate predicted at the plantation site at a specific time (here: current, mid-century and end of the century). We hypothesized that seedlings would allocate resources to the system (shoots or roots) affected by the most limiting treatment (simulated browsing or reduced water availability). Additionally, we evaluated whether the combination of treatments would have an additive or non-additive effect on the growth, survival and chemical composition of the seedlings. Quercus rubra seedlings reacted only to the water reduction treatment (changes in biomass and N concentration, dependent on geographic provenance) while Pinus strobus reacted only to the simulated browsing treatment (biomass and chemical composition). We also observed non-additive effects of reduced water availability and simulated browsing on Prunus serotina, Acer saccharum and Thuja occidentalis. In general, shoot:root ratio and investment in chemical defense did not vary in response to treatments. The regrowth response observed in Q. rubra and A. saccharum suggests that these species could tolerate periodic browsing events, even when water availability is reduced. More information is required to understand their long-term tolerance to repeated browsing events and to harsher and more frequent water stress. We highlight the importance of species-specific growth and allocation responses that vary with geographic provenance, which should be considered by managers when planning climate-adapted strategies, such as assisted migration.