Seedling Response to Simulated Browsing and Reduced Water Availability: Insights for Assisted Migration Plantations

To facilitate forest transition to future climate conditions, managers can use adaptive silvicultural tools, for example the assisted translocation of tree species and genotypes to areas with suitable future climate conditions (i.e., assisted migration). Like traditional plantations, however, assisted migration plantations are at risk of failure because of browsing by ungulate herbivores. The ability of seedlings to tolerate browsing could also be hampered by low water availability, as is expected under climate change. Using a greenhouse experiment with five eastern North American tree species, we evaluated the effects of simulated winter browsing and reduced water availability on the growth (total biomass, shoot:root ratio), survival, and chemical composition (nitrogen, total phenolics, flavonoids) of seedlings. We compared seedlings from three geographic provenances representing three climate analogues, i.e., locations with a current climate similar to the climate predicted at the plantation site at a specific time (here: current, mid-century and end of the century). We hypothesized that seedlings would allocate resources to the system (shoots or roots) affected by the most limiting treatment (simulated browsing or reduced water availability). Additionally, we evaluated whether the combination of treatments would have an additive or non-additive effect on the growth, survival and chemical composition of the seedlings. Quercus rubra seedlings reacted only to the water reduction treatment (changes in biomass and N concentration, dependent on geographic provenance) while Pinus strobus reacted only to the simulated browsing treatment (biomass and chemical composition). We also observed non-additive effects of reduced water availability and simulated browsing on Prunus serotina, Acer saccharum and Thuja occidentalis. In general, shoot:root ratio and investment in chemical defense did not vary in response to treatments. The regrowth response observed in Q. rubra and A. saccharum suggests that these species could tolerate periodic browsing events, even when water availability is reduced. More information is required to understand their long-term tolerance to repeated browsing events and to harsher and more frequent water stress. We highlight the importance of species-specific growth and allocation responses that vary with geographic provenance, which should be considered by managers when planning climate-adapted strategies, such as assisted migration.

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Trading space for time: Assessment of tree habitat shifts under climate change using bioclimatic envelopes

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2135 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Katharina Enigl ◽

Matthias Schlögl ◽

Christoph Matulla

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tree Species ◽

Ips Typographus ◽

Future Climate ◽

Forest Damage ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

North East ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

The Future ◽

Forest District

Climate change constitutes a main driver of altering population dynamics of spruce bark beetles (Ips typographus) all over Europe. Their swarming activity as well as development rate are strongly dependent on temperature and the availability of brood trees. Especially over the last years, the latter has substantially increased due to major drought events which led to a widespread weakening of spruce stands. Since both higher temperatures and longer drought periods are to be expected in Central Europe in the decades ahead, foresters face the challenges of maintaining sustainable forest management and safeguarding future yields. One approach used to foster decision support in silviculture relies on the identification of possible alternative tree species suitable for adapting to expected future climate conditions in threatened regions.&#160;In this study, we focus on the forest district of Horn, a region in Austria&#8216;s north east that is beneficially influenced by the mesoclimate of the Pannonian basin. This fertile yet dry area has been severely affected by mass propagations of Ips typographus due to extensive droughts since 2017, and consequently has suffered from substantial forest damage in recent years. The urgent need for action was realized and has expedited the search for more robust alternative species to ensure sustainable silviculture in the area.The determination of suitable tree species is based on the identification of regions whose climatic conditions in the recent past are similar to those that are to be expected in the forest district of Horn in the future. To characterize these conditions, we consider 19 bioclimatic variables that are derived from monthly temperature and rainfall values. Using downscaled CMIP6 projections with a spatial resolution of 2.5 minutes, we determine future conditions in Horn throughout the 21st century. By employing 20-year periods from 2021 to 2100 for the scenarios SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70 and SSP5-85,&#160; and comparing them to worldwide past climate conditions, we obtain corresponding bioclimatic regions for four future time slices until the end of the century. The Euclidian distance is applied as measure of similarity, effectively yielding similarity maps on a continuous scale. In order to account for the spatial variability within the forest district, this procedure is performed for the colder northwest and the warmer southeast of the area, individually seeking similar bioclimatic regions for each of these two subregions. Results point to Eastern Europe as well as the Po Valley in northern Italy as areas exhibiting the highest similarity to the future climate in this North-Eastern part of Austria.

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Snow Reliability and Water Availability for Snowmaking in the Ski resorts of the Isère Département (French Alps), Under Current and Future Climate Conditions

Revue de géographie alpine ◽

10.4000/rga.6742 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Martin Gerbaux ◽

Pierre Spandre ◽

Hugues François ◽

Emmanuelle George ◽

Samuel Morin

Keyword(s):

Water Availability ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

French Alps ◽

Ski Resorts

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Land management for sustainable water yield under future climate conditions in semiarid regions with over-utilized water resources: A case study of Xiong’an New Area

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10521 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Linyuan Ye ◽

Lei Cheng ◽

Pan Liu ◽

Deli Liu

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Land Management ◽

Water Availability ◽

Baseline Period ◽

Future Climate ◽

Vegetation Coverage ◽

Water Yield ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Semiarid Regions ◽

Near Future

The growing water extraction due to the economic development and population growth has caused over-utilization of water resources worldwide, especially in semiarid regions. In these regions, the sustainable water availability has often been sought and maintained by managing land, but it is highly uncertain in future climate conditions. Besides, prediction of water availability in such region is still challenging due to non-stationary rainfall-runoff relationship caused by intensive human interferences and poor ET simulation by hydrological models. Therefore, accurate estimation and maintaining of sustainable water availability under future climate conditions are important for the ecological conservation and social development of semiarid regions. In this study, impacts of land use and climate changes on vegetation dynamics (canopy LAI) and water cycle (ET and runoff) of the Xiong&#8217;an New Area (XNA) are investigated using an ecohydrological model (i.e., WAVES). The XNA, a typical semiarid region located in North China, is expected to need more water in order to increase the vegetation coverage from 10% to 40% by 2035. The WAVES model is chosen because it can simulate ET well by coupling water-carbon-heat. Here, water use (ET) and water yield (runoff) of three typical ecosystems (i.e., cropland, grassland and forestland) in different future periods (i.e., near-future: 2030s (2021-2040), mid-future: 2050s (2041-2060) and far-future: 2080s (2061-2100)) are assessed using projected future climate forcing from 18 GCMs under three RCPs (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Projected precipitation (P) and air temperature (Ta) indicate the XNA will become warmer and wetter in the future. The WAVES model is capable to simulate the ecohydrological process well in the XNA with NSE &#8805; 0.62, R2 &#8805; 0.65, RMSE &#8804; 0.86 in LAI and NSE &#8805; 0.61, R2 &#8805; 0.66, RMSE &#8804; 0.71 mm&#183;d-1 in ET. During the baseline period of 1982-2012, modeling results show that the forested land evaporates more water (32 mm a&#8722;1) than cropland while grassland use almost same water as cropland. Under future climate conditions, both cropland and the grassland will have more water use and water yield due to increased precipitation and suppressed vegetation growth due to warming. Forested land will use more than 20% water (76 mm a&#8722;1) compared with that during the baseline period in the XNA, but it will generate more than 10% (12 mm a&#8722;1) water yield in the 2050s and 2080s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 due to greater increases in precipitation. For the purpose of land management, it is recommended to plant crop or grass in the near-future and to plant forest in the mid-future and far-future to expand vegetation coverage in the XNA. This study highlights that both climate change and land management are of critical importance for sustaining water yield in semiarid regions with over-utilized water resources.

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Estimation of wind storm impacts overWestern Germany under future climate conditions using a statisticalâ€“dynamical downscaling approach

Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography ◽

10.3402/tellusa.v62i2.15670 ◽

2010 ◽

Author(s):

Joaquim G. Pinto ◽

Christian P. Neuhaus ◽

Gregor C. Leckebusch ◽

Mark Reyers ◽

Michael Kerschgens

Keyword(s):

Dynamical Downscaling ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Conditions

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Design of a rubble mound breakwater under the combined effect of wave heights and water levels, under present and future climate conditions

Applied Ocean Research ◽

10.1016/j.apor.2021.102711 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 112 ◽

pp. 102711

Author(s):

Soheil Radfar ◽

Mehdi Shafieefar ◽

Hassan Akbari ◽

Panagiota A. Galiatsatou ◽

Ahmad Rezaee Mazyak

Keyword(s):

Water Levels ◽

Future Climate ◽

Combined Effect ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Wave Heights ◽

Rubble Mound

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Risk Assessment of Future Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change Impacts on Water Resources

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology8010038 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 38

Author(s):

Nick Martin

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Land Cover ◽

Water Balance ◽

Water Availability ◽

Reference Conditions ◽

Weather Generator ◽

Future Climate ◽

Lulc Change

Climate and land use and land cover (LULC) changes will impact watershed-scale water resources. These systemic alterations will have interacting influences on water availability. A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework for water resource impact analysis from future systemic change is described and implemented to examine combined climate and LULC change impacts from 2011–2100 for a study site in west-central Texas. Internally, the PRA framework provides probabilistic simulation of reference and future conditions using weather generator and water balance models in series—one weather generator and water balance model for reference and one of each for future conditions. To quantify future conditions uncertainty, framework results are the magnitude of change in water availability, from the comparison of simulated reference and future conditions, and likelihoods for each change. Inherent advantages of the framework formulation for analyzing future risk are the explicit incorporation of reference conditions to avoid additional scenario-based analysis of reference conditions and climate change emissions scenarios. In the case study application, an increase in impervious area from economic development is the LULC change; it generates a 1.1 times increase in average water availability, relative to future climate trends, from increased runoff and decreased transpiration.

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Impact of Harvest Conditions and Host Tree Species on Chemical Composition and Antioxidant Activity of Extracts from Viscum album L.

Molecules ◽

10.3390/molecules26123741 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 26 (12) ◽

pp. 3741

Author(s):

Wioleta Pietrzak ◽

Renata Nowak

Keyword(s):

Antioxidant Activity ◽

Biological Activity ◽

Chemical Composition ◽

Tree Species ◽

Plant Material ◽

Plant Secondary Metabolites ◽

Host Tree ◽

Host Tree Species ◽

High Antioxidant Activity ◽

Mistletoe Extracts

The content of plant secondary metabolites is not stable, and factors such as the region/location effect and seasonal variations have an impact on their chemical composition, especially in parasitic plants. Research in this area is an important step in the development of quality parameter standards of medicinal plants and their finished products. The effects of the time and place of harvest and the host tree species on the chemical composition and antioxidant activity of mistletoe extracts were investigated. Statistical tools were used to evaluate the results of the spectrophotometric and LC-ESI-MS/MS studies of the phenolic composition and antioxidant activity. The investigations indicate that the qualitative and quantitative composition, influencing the biological activity of mistletoe extracts, largely depends on the origin of the plant. The mistletoe extracts exhibited a rich phenol profile and high antioxidant activity. The chemometric analysis indicated that mistletoe collected from conifers (Viscum abietis and Viscum austriacum) had the most advantageous chemical composition and antioxidant activity. Moreover, the chemical profile and biological activity of the plant material were closely related to the climatic conditions and location of the harvested plant. Higher levels of phenolic compounds and high antioxidant activity were found in extracts obtained from plant material collected in cold weather with the presence of snow and less sunshine (autumn–winter period).

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Holocene changes in African vegetation: tradeoff between climate and water availability

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-10-681-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 681-686 ◽

Cited By ~ 63

Author(s):

C. Hély ◽

A.-M. Lézine ◽

APD contributors

Keyword(s):

West Africa ◽

Water Availability ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Plant Distribution ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Tropical Plants ◽

Plant Migration ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

The Individual ◽

Instrumental Records

Abstract. Although past climate change is well documented in West Africa through instrumental records, modeling activities, and paleo-data, little is known about regional-scale ecosystem vulnerability and long-term impacts of climate on plant distribution and biodiversity. Here we use paleohydrological and paleobotanical data to discuss the relation between available surface water, monsoon rainfall and vegetation distribution in West Africa during the Holocene. The individual patterns of plant migration or community shifts in latitude are explained by differences among tolerance limits of species to rainfall amount and seasonality. Using the probability density function methodology, we show here that the widespread development of lakes, wetlands and rivers at the time of the "Green Sahara" played an additional role in forming a network of topographically defined water availability, allowing for tropical plants to migrate north from 15 to 24° N (reached ca. 9 cal ka BP). The analysis of the spatio–temporal changes in biodiversity, through both pollen occurrence and richness, shows that the core of the tropical rainbelt associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone was centered at 15–20° N during the early Holocene wet period, with comparatively drier/more seasonal climate conditions south of 15° N.

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