Development of a method for assessing forecast of social impact in regional communities

The development of the social aspect of the world community is closely related to the expansion of the range of digital services in cyberspace. A special place in which social networks occupy. The world's leading states are conducting information operations in this environment to achieve geopolitical goals. Such processes are reflected in real social and political life. This makes it possible to influence not only the social groups of society, but also to ensure manipulation in political "games" in the conduct of hybrid wars. The simultaneous interaction of social factors, influencing factors, the presence of communities in social networks forms a full-fledged socio-cyber-physical system capable of integrating real and virtual interactions to manage regional communities. The article proposes a method for predicting the assessment of social mutual influence between “formal” and “informal” leaders and regional societies. The proposed models make it possible to form not only a forecast of the influence of agents, but also the interaction of various agents, taking into account their formal and informal influences, the use of administrative resources, political moods of the regional society. This approach allows dynamic modeling based on impact and relationship analysis. The presented results of simulation modeling do not contradict the results of opinion polls and make it possible to form a set of measures that can be aimed at overcoming the negative impact on the regional society of both individual “leaders” and political parties. Analysis of the simulation results allows to increase both the political and social stability of the regional society, helps to prevent conflict moods and contradictions.

Ethnic Policy in Transbaikalia at the second half of the 19th – early 20th centuries: Regional Nuances

The article is devoted to the regional peculiarities of ethnic policy having been analyzed on the example of Transbaikal region of Russian Empire. During the period under investigation it was a kind of national outlying district which lagged behind other Siberian territories in social-economic and cultural development. At the same time it was closely connected with foreign policy ambitions of the Empire which considered it as starting point for strengthening economic and political influence in Inner Asia. Geopolitical potential of the region and its unpreparedness to play the intended role defined ethnic policy mode. Frontier position of the region demanded the necessity of administrative system unification in order to provide unity of its indigenous population (Buryats) with Russian people. Nevertheless, insufficient flexibility in this issue caused protest movement growth and was the reason of region vulnerability against foreign threat. Transbaikalia economic reinforcing acceleration at last defined comparatively mild variant of relations arrangement with none-indigenous ethnic groups in spite of the exiled status and established opinion of their unreliability. Regional administration regarded them as promising colonization element, having high educational potential, as well as business experience in frames of free competition, local population having no such. This policy allowed former exiles to fit regional society organically and display their abilities to the full extent. The results obtained may be used while researching regions’ independence degree in decision making in ethnic issue and possibility of official course correction due to the status of the region and thus peculiarities of its development.

Evaluation and Strategy: Strengthening Indonesia Council of Representatives of the Regions

The Council of Representatives of the Regions emerged through the 1945 Constitution third amendment. The Council of Representatives of the Regions intended to represent regional interests and regional society in the central legislation making processes and products, to perform checks and balances principle on The People’s Representative Council which is a political representation that brings and struggles the aspirations and interests of political parties at the central level. The Council of Representatives of the Regions also acts as a guardian of decentralization and regional autonomy. The most fundamental problem for The Council of Representatives of the Regions is its institutional weaknesses. In legislation weaknesses terms, budgeting, and supervision have affected The Council of Representatives of the Regions in maximizing its performances. The Law regarding Indonesia Legislative Branch does not mandate legislation as The Council of Representatives of the Regions tasks. This provision can not be used as a guideline to describe the scope of duties, which are the limits of their authority in The Council of Representatives of the Regions order. On the other hand, after the Constitutional Court Decision Number 92/PUU-X/2012 and Number 79/PUU-XII/2014 issued, the relations that were later present were the three-party discussion model of The People’s Representative Council-The Council of Representatives of the Regions-President (Tripartite). Based on those facts, this article focuses on the evaluation of 15 years of The Council of Representatives of the Regions establishment and strategy to strengthen it.

Integrated Model of Peace Education Based on Contextual Islamic Washatiyah at Nurul Islam, Islamic Boarding School Jember

Abstrak: Nurul Islam Islamic Boarding School since its establishment has set itself as a peace boarding school having moderate character. When radicalism, extremism, and terrorism threaten world peace, the schools consistently campaign for peace. Therefore, the research focuses on peace education planning, implementation, and implication on students' behavior and attitude in Nurul Islam Islamic Boarding School Jember to find out a planning, implementation, and implication model of peace education. The research is a qualitative study using a multiple case study approach. The informants were chosen using a purposive sampling technique. The findings of the research are: first, peace education planning in Nurul Islam Islamic Boarding School Jember refers to vision, mission, institutional philosophy, Islam washatiyah (moderate), started with the need analysis of times, society, and students and by considering the suggestion of education users formulated by the educational institution. Second, peace education implementation employs an adaptation of religious text material using moderation approach, Islamic method and universal method, a website supporting media containing digital washatiyah literacy and digital Sufism literacy implemented informal institution integrated with ahl al-sunnah wa al-jama’ah teaching through class-based inter curricular activities and intensive and doctrinal extracurricular activities. Third, the peace education implication in Islamic boarding school builds students' polite and tolerant behavior, moderate and contextual perspective, Sufistic behavior, positive image for the local, national and regional society and supports Islamic boarding school continuous transformation. The formal finding of the research is an integrative peace education model based on contextual Islam washatiyah.الملخص: أعلن معهد نور الإسلام منذ بداية نشأتهما بأنهما معهد السلام الذي لها خصية كمعهد باتجاه معتدل ومعتمد على تقاليد الذكر والمناقب. وفي الوقت الذي يتعرض فيه العالم للتهديد من التطرف والاقتكاء والإرهاب، يظل ذلك المعهد ناطقا رئيسيا في حملة السلام. لذلك، فإن استكشاف هذا البحث يتركز على تخطيط وتنفيذ وآثار مترتبة من تربية السلام على مواقف وسلوكيات الطلاب في معهد نور الإسلام جمبر بهدف إيجاد نموذج تخطيط التنفيذ والآثار المترتبة من تربية السلام. استخدم هذا البحث منهج البحث الكيفي بنوع دراسة الحالة مع تصميم دراسة متعدد الحالات. تم اختيار المخبرين من خلال تقنيات أخذ العينات المحددة، وجمع البيانات باستخدام المقابلة غير المنظمة، والملاحظة غير المشاركة والوثائق. استخدم الباحث تحليل البيانات بنموذج ميلز وهوبرمان الذي طبق على مرحلتين: ١. تحليل بيانات الحالات الفردية، و ٢. تحليل البيانات عبر الحالات. وتم التحقق من صحة البيانات من خلال تثليث الطريقة، والاعتمادية، والتأكدية.أظهرت نتائج هذا البحث ما يلي: أولا، تخطيط تربية السلام في معهد نور الإسلام هو التخطيط القائم على الرؤية والرسالة والاهتمام بفلسفة المؤسسة وبمبدأ الإسلام الوسطي (المعتدلة)، يسبقها تحليل احتياجات العصر والمجتمع والطلاب والاهتمام بمدخلات مستخدمي الخدمة التعليمية التي تصوغها المؤسسات التعليمية. ثانياً، تنفيذ تربية السلام الذي يتروح مع مادة من النصوص الدينية بمنهج الاعتدال، باستخدام الأسلوب الإسلامي والأسلوب العالمي، ودعم الموقع الإعلامي بالمحتوى الرقمي ومحو الأمية الصوفية الرقمية المنفذة في المؤسسات الرسمية مع نمط من التكامل بين تعاليم أهل السنة والجماعة سواء كان من خلال المناهج الدراسية القائمة على الصفية واللاصفية مكثفا أو مذهبيا. ثالثاً، تُشكل الآثار المترتبة من تربية السلام في المعهد موقفاً مهذباً ومتحمسا، وتشكيل وجهة النظر المعتدلة السياقية، وتشكيل موقف التصوف لدى الطلاب، وتشكيل صورة إيجابية للمجتمعات المحلية والوطنية والإقليمية، وتشجع التحول المؤسسي للمعهد بطريقة مستدامة. النتائج الرسمية في هذا البحث هي نماذج تربية السلام التكاملية القائمة على الإسلام الوطني السياقي.