Comparing Probabilities: Rock, Paper, Scissors, and Coin Toss

In this activity, students find the theoretical probabilities of winning a coin toss and a round of the rock, paper, scissors game. They next devise strategies to win and test them out. Students then compare the theoretical probabilities they found with the experimental probabilities.

Comments on Indeterminism and Undecidability

In a recent paper \cite{Landsman1}, it has been claimed that the outcomes of a quantum coin toss which is idealized as an infinite binary sequence is {\it 1-random}. We also defend the correctness of this claim and assert that the outcomes of quantum measurements can be considered as an infinite {\it 1-random} or {\it n-random} sequence. In this brief note we present our comments on this claim. We have mostly positive but also some negative comments on the arguments of the paper \cite{Landsman1}. Furthermore, we speculate a logical-axiomatic study of nature which we believe can intrinsically provide quantum mechanical probabilities based on {\it 1(n)-randomness}.

Analytics of Batting First in Indian Premier League Twenty20 Cricket Matches

Purpose: Use ball-by-ball data from the Indian Premier League cricket tournament and machine learning techniques to predict match outcomes based on events occurring in the first inning of a match.Approach: Twelve predictor variables were entered into machine learning models (forward stepwise logistic regression using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC); forward stepwise logistic regression using Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC); random forests; naïve Bayes classifier), with match outcome as the dependent variable. Findings: The AIC model reported the highest accuracy in both the training and test datasets (69.92% and 67.18%, respectively). This model contains total runs scored, winning the coin toss, and home-ground advantage as positive predictors, and number of balls with no runs scored and number of balls with one run scored as negative predictors. All four models found that total runs scored in an inning was the most important predictor of match outcome, and no model included number of wickets lost as a predictor, although there could be an indirect effect through total runs scored. Originality: This study is novel in that it used both pre-match variables (home-ground) advantage and real-time measures (e.g., how many runs were scored in the powerplay) in a machine learning context to classify match results. The results can be used to adapt in-game tactics to maximize advantages of batsmen in favorable contexts.

The Negative Association Between Positive Psychological Wellbeing and Loss Aversion

When making decisions, people tend to overweigh the impact of losses compared to gains, a phenomenon known as loss aversion (LA). A moderate amount of LA may be adaptive as it is necessary for protecting oneself from danger. However, excessive LA may leave people few opportunities and ultimately lead to suboptimal outcomes. Despite frequent reports of elevated LA in specific populations such as patients with depression, little is known about what psychological characteristics are associated with the tendency of LA. Based on the neurobiological studies of LA, we hypothesized that positive psychological wellbeing may be negatively associated with people's tendency of LA. In the present study, we set out to test this hypothesis in a sample of young adults. We evaluated LA using a decision-making task in which subjects were asked to decide whether to accept or reject a series of coin-toss gambles. Our results revealed that individuals with more advanced personal growth as assessed by the Ryff's Psychological Well-being Inventory showed reduced LA. To our knowledge, this is the first report demonstrating an association between positive psychological wellbeing and LA. These findings suggest that personal growth might be employed as interventional targets for correcting excessive LA in vulnerable populations.

Differential Pulley Release in Trigger Finger: A Prospective, Randomized Clinical Trial

Background: The palmar aponeurosis or “A0 pulley” may play a role in trigger finger pathology. This study assesses the involvement of the A0 pulley in patients receiving trigger finger release. Methods: This single-surgeon, prospective, randomized clinical trial was conducted among consenting patients with symptomatic trigger finger. Intraoperative coin toss was used to randomize initial release of either the A0 or A1 pulley. Following release, active flexion and extension of the affected digit were examined. The remaining pulley was then released in sequence, and clinical trigger status was recorded. Results: Thirty fingers from 24 patients were released; 17 fingers received A0 release first, and 13 received A1 release. Following initial A0 release, 8 fingers (47%) demonstrated complete resolution of symptoms, 4 (24%) demonstrated improvement but incomplete resolution of triggering, and 5 (29.4%) demonstrated no improvement. Following initial A1 release, 6 fingers (46%) demonstrated complete resolution, 3 (23%) demonstrated improvement but incomplete resolution of triggering, and 4 (31%) demonstrated no improvement. All patients demonstrated complete resolution after surgical release of both sites. Neither initial A1 release nor initial A0 release was statistically associated with complete, incomplete, or failed symptom resolution. Conclusions: These data implicate the A0 pulley as the primary cause of 31% to 47% of trigger fingers in our study. Although larger trials are needed to validate these results, our study suggests that release of both A0 and A1 pulleys may offer greater symptom resolution than release of the A1 pulley alone.

Practical generation of common random strings for secure multiparty computations over the Internet

It is known that most of the interesting multiparty cryptographic tasks cannot be implemented securely without trusted setup in a general concurrent network environment like the Internet. We need an appropriate trusted third party to solve this problem. An important trusted setup is a public random string shared by the parties. We present a practical n-bit coin toss protocol for provably secure implementation of such setup. Our idea is inviting external peers into the execution of the protocol to establish an honest majority among the parties. We guarantee security in the presence of an unconditional, static, malicious adversary. Additionally, we present an original practical idea of using live public radio broadcast channels for the generation of common physical random source.

Novel Memristor Based True Random Number Generator

Random numbers are an important, but often overlooked part of the modern computing environment. They are used everywhere around us for a variety of purposes, from simple decision making in video games such as a coin toss, to securing financial transactions and encrypting confidential communications. They are even useful for gambling and the lottery. Random numbers are generated in many ways. Pseudo random number generators (PRNGs) generate numbers based on a formula. True random number generators (TRNGs) capture entropy from the environment to generate randomness. As our society and our devices become more connected in the digital world, it is important to develop new ways to generate truly random numbers in order to secure communications and connected devices. In this work a novel memristor-based True Random Number Generator is designed and a physical implementation is fabricated and tested using a W-based self-directed channel (SDC) memristor. The circuit was initially designed and prototyped on a breadboard. A custom Printed Circuit Board (PCB) was fabricated for the final circuit design and testing of the novel memristor-based TRNG. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Statistical Test Suite (STS) was used to check the output of the TRNG for randomness. The TRNG was demonstrated to pass 13 statistical tests out of the 15 in the STS.

The effect of mask use on maternal oxygen saturation in term pregnancies during the COVID-19 process

ObjectivesOur aim was to evaluate the effect of standard surgical and N-95 respiratory mask use on maternal oxygen saturation, vital signs and result on non-stress tests in term pregnancies.MethodsIt is a prospective observational study. The study included healthy, not in labor, singleton pregnant women of 370/7–410/7 weeks who were applied to our hospital for routine obstetric control examination between March 1, 2020, and August 31, 2020. Patients were randomised by coin toss method. Oxygen saturation, systolic, and diastolic arterial blood pressure, pulse, respiratory rate, and temperature of pregnant women using surgical masks and respiratory masks were measured before and after the non-stress test. The tolerance of the masks was also evaluated. Student’s t-test was used for variables showing parametric distribution and the Mann Whitney U-test was used for non-parametric tests. The categorical variables between the groups was analyzed by using the Chi square test or Fisher Exact test. The statistical significance level was taken as p<0.05 in all tests.ResultsA total of 297 pregnant women using masks were included in the study. The effect of mask type on oxygen saturation before and after the non-stress test was found to be significant (97.1±1.8 corresponds to 95.3±2.6 for the surgical mask, p=0.0001; 97.8±1.7 corresponds to 93.7±2.0 for the respiratory mask, p=0.0001). Mask tolerance of patients using respiratory masks was significantly higher than those using surgical masks (mean 8, 1–10, p=0.0001).ConclusionsSurgical mask and respiratory mask usage decreased significantly in oxygen saturation in term pregnancies.