An Unhealthy World

This chapter explains how the world that faced COVID-19 was not a world free of existential threats, merely from the widespread knowledge of them. The pandemic revealed just how vulnerable we have always been, and how vulnerable we will remain unless we learn its lessons. The first step to doing so is understanding the ways in which the world is still unhealthy and the forces which enable this poor health. This means looking at health disparities, which emerge from the misalignment of the structures that underlie health—the social, economic, political, and geographic factors which unfold across time and distance to shape our world. Creating a healthy world means engaging with health on this level—and we cannot prevent the next pandemic without creating a healthy world. The chapter discusses how we can do so, by first looking at the ways we have fallen short. The challenges of widespread disease, the proliferation of unsafe behaviors like smoking, and other forms of preventable mortality all speak of a world that is still unhealthy. The chapter then looks at how these challenges intersected with COVID-19. Finally, it considers the role global cooperation and international institutions played in addressing COVID-19, and their importance for creating a better future for health.

Understanding Preventable Deaths in the Geriatric Trauma Population: Analysis of 3,452,339 Patients From the Center of Medicare and Medicaid Services Database

Background Patient safety indicators (PSIs) are avoidable complications that can impact outcomes. Geriatric patients have a higher mortality than younger patients with similar injuries, and understanding the etiology may help reduce mortality. We aim to estimate preventable geriatric trauma mortality in the United States and identify PSIs associated with increased preventable mortality. Methods A retrospective cohort study of patients aged ≥65 years, in the CMS database, 2017-second quarter of 2020. Risk-adjusted multivariable regression was performed to calculate observed-to-expected (O/E) mortality ratios for failure-to-prevent and failure-to-rescue PSIs with significance defined as P < .05. Results 3,452,339 geriatric patients were analyzed. Patients aged 75-84 years had 33% higher odds of preventable mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.33 and 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.31, 1.36), whereas patients aged ≥85 years had 91% higher odds of preventable mortality (aOR = 1.91 and 95% CI = 1.87, 1.94) compared to patients aged 65-74 years. Failure-to-prevent O/E were >1 for all PSIs evaluated with central line–related blood stream infection having a high O/E (747.93). Failure-to-rescue O/E were >1 for 10/11 (91%) PSIs with physiologic and metabolic derangements having the highest O/E (5.98). United States’ states with higher quantities of geriatric trauma patients experienced reduced preventable mortality. Conclusion Odds of preventable mortality increases with age. Perioperative venous thrombotic events, hemorrhage or hematoma, and postoperative physiologic/metabolic derangements produce significant preventable mortalities. United States’ states differ in their failure-to-prevent and failure-to-rescue PSIs. Utilization of national guidelines, minimization of central venous catheter use, addressing polypharmacy especially anticoagulation, ensuring operative and procedure-based competencies, and greater incorporation of inpatient geriatricians may serve to reduce preventable mortality in elderly trauma patients.

Excess Cardiovascular Mortality in Latvia: A Novel Approach Based on Patient-Level Data to Estimate the Separate Contributions of Primary Prevention, Accessibility and Quality of Hospital Care

Background: Because quantifying the relative contributions of prevention and medical care to the decline in cardiovascular mortality is controversial, at present mortality indicators use a fifty-fifty allocation to fraction avoidable cardiovascular deaths as being partly preventable and partly amenable. The aim of this study was to develop a dynamic approach to estimate the contributions of preventable versus amenable mortality, and to estimate the proportion of amenable mortality due to non-utilisation of care versus suboptimal quality of care. Methods: We calculated the contribution of primary prevention, healthcare utilisation and healthcare quality in Latvia by using Emilia-Romagna (ER) (Italy) as the best performer reference standard. In particular, we considered preventable mortality as the number of cardiovascular deaths that could be avoided if Latvia had the same incidence as ER, and then apportioned non-preventable mortality into the two components of non-utilisation versus suboptimal quality of hospital care based on the presence of hospital admissions in the days before death. This calculation was possible thanks to the availability of the unique patient identifier in the administrative databases of Latvia and ER. Results: 41.5 people per 100 000 population died in Latvia in 2016 from cardiovascular causes amenable to healthcare; about half of these (21.4 per 100 000) had had no contact with acute care settings, while the other half (20.1 per 100 000) had accessed the hospital but received suboptimal-quality healthcare. Another estimated 26.8 deaths per 100 000 population were due to lack of primary prevention. Deaths attributable to suboptimal quality or non-utilisation of hospital care constituted 60.7% of all avoidable cardiovascular mortality. Conclusion: If research is undertaken to understand the reasons for differences between territories and their possible relevance to lower performing countries, the dynamic assessment of country-specific contributions to avoidable mortality has considerable potential to stimulate cross-national learning and continuous improvement in population health outcomes.

Non-Beverage Alcohol Consumption In Izhevsk: 15 Years Later

Aims Non-beverage alcohol was a major cause of preventable mortality of working-age males in Izhevsk (Russia) in 2003–2004. The Russian government has since taken measures to reduce availability of non-beverage alcohol. Yet, some types of non-beverage alcohol still remain available for consumers. The aim of this study was to assess the availability and sources of non-beverage alcohol in Udmurtia. Methods A survey of adults on the streets of Izhevsk and its environs was performed on workdays to assess non-beverage drinking patterns in 2018. The questionnaire included questions about socio-demographic status and alcohol use, including non-beverage alcohol consumption and drinking patterns. Results One hundred and sixty-eight people were questioned, of whom, 28% reported consuming non-beverage alcohol. Non-beverage alcohol consumers were more likely to be single, unemployed or retired, younger or older than 19–29 years, have lower educational status and income, have hangovers and drink moonshine. Conclusion Non-beverage alcohol consumption still took place at Izhevsk, a typical Russian city, in 2018, and its availability was still high. Untaxed and cheap medicinal non-beverage alcohol consumption seems to have become the major source of non-beverage alcohol consumption. Further regulation of non-beverage alcohol may be required in Russia.

Time courses of COVID-19 infection and local variation in socioeconomic and health disparities in England

ObjectiveTo identify factors associated with local variation in the time course of COVID-19 case burden in England.MethodsWe analyzed laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 case data for 150 upper tier local authorities, from the period from January 30 to May 6, 2020, as reported by Public Health England. Using methods suitable for time-series data, we identified clusters of local authorities with distinct trajectories of daily cases, after adjusting for population size. We then tested for differences in sociodemographic, economic, and health disparity factors between these clusters.ResultsTwo clusters of local authorities were identified: a higher case trajectory that rose faster over time to reach higher peak infection levels, and a lower case trajectory cluster that emerged more slowly, and had a lower peak. The higher case trajectory cluster (79 local authorities) had higher population density (p<0.001), higher proportion of Black and Asian residents (p=0.03; p=0.02), higher multiple deprivation scores (p<0.001), a lower proportions of older adults (p=0.005), and higher preventable mortality rates (p=0.03). Local authorities with higher proportions of Black residents were more likely to belong to the high case trajectory cluster, even after adjusting for population density, deprivation, proportion of older adults and preventable mortality (p=0.04).ConclusionAreas belonging to the trajectory with significantly higher COVID-19 case burden were more deprived, and had higher proportions of ethnic minority residents. A higher proportion of Black residents in regions belonging to the high trajectory cluster was not fully explained by differences in population density, deprivation, and other overall health disparities between the clusters.What is already known on this subject?Emerging evidence suggests that the burden of COVID-19 infection is falling unequally across England, with provisional data suggesting higher overall infection and mortality rates for Black, Asian, and mixed race/ethnicity individuals.What does this study add?We found that regions with greater socioeconomic deprivation and poorer population health measures showed a faster rise in COVID-19 cases, and reached higher peak case levels. Areas with a higher proportion of Black residents were more likely to show this kind of time course, even after adjusting for multiple co-occurring factors, including population density. This finding merits further investigation in terms of the intersecting vulnerability factors Black and other minority ethnic individuals face in England (e.g. proportion of people working in service and caring roles, and the role of structural discrimination), and has implications for the ongoing allocation of public health resources, in order to better mitigate such inequalities.