PENGGUNAAN DATA AIS-IRSMS UNTUK PREDIKSI KECELAKAAN MELIBATKAN SEPEDA MOTOR PADA RUAS JALAN DI KOTA SURABAYA

Accidents of involving motorcycles in Surabaya tend to increase. Recorded from 2014 to 2016 were reached 721, 929 and 1,325 accidents. This phenomenon is certainly not beneficial for the community and road transport policy makers. This study was conducted to determine the characteristics of motorcycle riders and accidents of involving motorcycles. This research further develops estimation of accident prediction involving motorcycle in Surabaya City. Accident data compiled from AIS-IRSMS to know the characteristics of users and accidents using the accidents approach. The research location was conducted in accident prone areas during January 2014 to February 2017 also using AIS-IRSMS. With the Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), the result of estimation of accident estimation involving motorcycle that is McA = 0.00225 Q1.030 e(0.034 S). Accidents of involving motorcycles are heavily influenced by the number of vehicles on the road and the speed of the vehicle. Kecelakaan melibatkan sepeda motor di Kota Surabaya cenderung mengalami peningkatan. Tercatat tahun 2014 hingga 2016 mencapai 721, 929 dan 1.325 kejadian kecelakaan. Fenomena ini tentunya tidak menguntungkan bagi masyarakat dan pengambil kebijakan terkait transportasi jalan raya. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui karakteristik pengendara sepeda motor terlibat kecelakaan dan kecelakaan melibatkan sepeda motor. Lebih lanjut penelitian ini melakukan pengembangan estimasi prediksi kecelakaan melibatkan sepeda motor di Kota Surabaya. Data kecelakaan dikompulir dari AIS-IRSMS untuk mengetahui karakteristik penguna dan kecelakaan menggunakan pendekatan frekwensi kejadian. Lokasi penelitian dilakukan pada daerah rawan kecelakaan sepanjang Januari 2014 hingga Februari 2017 juga menggunakan bantuan AIS-IRSMS. Menggunakan metode Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), hasil penelitian diperoleh estimasi prediksi kecelakaan melibatkan sepeda motor yaitu McA= 0,00225 Q1,030 e(0,034 S). Kecelakaan melibatkan sepeda motor sangat dipengaruhi oleh banyaknya kendaraan di jalan dan kecepatan kendaraan.

The role of the technical standard of roads due to traffic safety at nighttime

Accident statistics and previous research directly indicate an increased accident risk during deterioration of natural lighting conditions. This increased risk is mainly determined by so-called “human impact”, connected with perception limitations and recognition of situations by nighttime traffic participants. Proper road infrastructure solutions are essential for improvement of driver’s road vision at nighttime. Planning of such solutions requires proper identification of set of accident risk determinants at nighttime. In this paper the attempt to identify of such determinants was performed and the hypothesis that the technical standard of roads is the main infrastructural determinant influencing accident risk at nighttime was verified. Validity of this assumption results from the fact that lower technical standard accompanies lower requirements regarding limits of geometrical parameters, roadside equipment and access control. Thus, with lower technical standard, problems concerning the influence of infrastructure on road safety should appear, especially during nighttime conditions. On the basis of regression accident estimation models, main infrastructural determinants of higher accident risk at nighttime were identified and some design recommendations were formulated.