The asymmetry effect of oil price changes on inflation, and the welfare implication for Ghana

PurposeHigh inflation levels remain a challenge in macroeconomic stabilization policies among developing economies. Oil price is identified as an important driver of inflation. In the wake of high and unstable international oil prices, the question regarding the relationship between inflation and crude oil prices, and its implication for economic welfare has become a fundamental empirical issue.Design/methodology/approachThis question is explored by estimating a non-linear autoregressive distribution lags (NARDL) model of inflation-oil nexus that examined the asymmetric response of inflation to oil price changes. The study then derived the welfare implication of the asymmetric responses, with implications for the petroleum pricing regime in Ghana.FindingsThe study found that inflation responds asymmetrically to oil prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. The welfare cost associated with the asymmetric response increases with increasing rate.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study have some implications for petroleum product pricing in Ghana. Recently, Ghana has moved from regulating petroleum prices to the automatic adjustment system. By this policy, petroleum prices change in tandem with the crude oil prices and exchange rates on the international market. Whiles this policy might be comparatively efficient, the evidence of asymmetric response of inflation to changes in oil prices raises some issues about the welfare effect of the policy.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to the literature on the inflation-oil price nexus by investigating critical questions that remain puzzling. These questions include; Does inflation respond asymmetrically to the positive and negative shock of equal magnitude in oil prices? Does inflation response to the asymmetry changes in oil prices have any implications for the welfare of the country? Is the effect of oil price changes pernicious?

Gender and Water

This chapter examines the welfare implication of wage revisions for two Indian unorganized sector female workers with opposite preference patterns for income and leisure in drought-prone zone. The female workers here face a gender-based wage gap and the inconveniences caused by water shortage adversely affect their effective incomes since females are the major users of water in the family. This chapter also makes a couple of recommendations for policymakers and legislators. It experiments with alternative utility functions in neoclassical microeconomic behavioural model framework.

Tax on Traded Goods, and Corrupt Non-traded Goods Sector: Implications for Intermediation Activities

This paper uses a Heckscher-Ohlin nugget framework with both traded and non-traded goods. Traded goods are subject to tax whereas non-traded good does not pay tax but is beset with corruption related intermediation. Our motive is to investigate the comparison of the effects of corruption and tax cut. We assume only the non-traded sector to be corruption affected. We argue that a fall in the degree of corruption surprisingly increases the number of intermediators while tax change has no effect on it. But the size of the intermediation activities expands in both the cases. Low corruption diminishes the exportable production and raises importable production while a tax cut does not have any such effect. The welfare implication is ambiguous in case of a decrease in cost of corruption. A tax cut, however, raises welfare unambiguously.

Welfare Implication of Paddy Price Support Withdrawal from Malaysian Rice Sector: Partial Equilibrium Method Approach

The study was designed to analyze societal welfare implication of paddy price support withdrawal, as an alternative policy, from rice sector in Malaysia. Time series data (1980-2012) were collected and analyzed through different stages of analyses. The first stage of analysis involved time series econometric model namely, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), which was used in coefficients estimation. Estimated coefficients were subjected to, and passed the relevant diagnostic tests. The estimated elasticities were then used for the second stage of analysis- scenario simulation. Finally, the generated simulation results were further used in estimating the societal welfare changed through appropriate estimation technique. Results show producer welfare loss of about RM189 million, and RM198 million was saved as revenue. The net gain or societal welfare improvement was about RM9 million. Simulated results show up to 10% reduction in paddy producer price or farm income; this could serve as disincentive to rice producers. Since the country is concerned about achieving rice self-sufficiency and rice food security, necessary precautionary measures have to be instituted to prevent farmers exit from paddy farming, by putting a concerted effort towards channeling the trickle-down benefit of societal welfare improvement, resulting from policy option, to rice producers particularly the dominant smallholder group.