Urban-Rural Migration under the devolved governance system in Kenya: Subsequent implications for income and occupation

The study investigates the impact of urban-rural migration on income and occupation. The research aims to estimate the probabilities and significance of income and occupational change across different socio-economic characteristics and demographic profiles upon return to the rural areas from Nairobi city, particularly after the enactment of the 2013 Kenya devolution policy. The paper draws upon exploratory research using data comprising 69 interviews with the return migrants after they had established a stay in rural areas, two years subsequently after migrating from Nairobi city. By applying the empirical methods of probit regression model, the study finds that significant probability for income change varies across different socio-economic attributes and demographic profiles. Occupational change and associated probabilities are significantly determined by low education level, female gender, the old age, huge rural land size, and low migrant’s job-related expertise level. For both income and occupational change, rural land size more than 2.5 acres is a significant incentive for urban-rural migration; given the likelihood of return migrants shift to agriculture and in a long run establishes a robust source of income. This, after assigning other dummy variables, and setting the baseline at two years.

Changes of profession, employer and work tasks in later working life: an empirical overview of staying and leaving

Occupational change encompasses change of profession, employer and work tasks. This study gives an overview on occupational change in later working life and provides empirical evidence on voluntary, involuntary and desired occupational changes in the older workforce in Germany. The analyses were based on longitudinal data from 2,835 participants of the German lidA Cohort Study, a representative study of employees born in 1959 or 1965. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were performed in order to characterise the change groups in their previous job situation. The findings indicate that occupational change among older workers is frequent. In four years, 13.4 per cent changed employer, 10.5 per cent profession and 45.1 per cent work tasks. In addition, the desire for change often remains unfulfilled: the share of older workers who wanted to but did not change was 17.6 per cent for profession, 13.2 per cent for employer and 8.9 per cent for work tasks. The change groups investigated differ in terms of their socio-demographic background, health and job factors such as seniority and leadership quality. In times of ageing populations, the potential of occupational change among older workers requires more consideration in society, policy and research. Special attention should also be paid to the group of workers who would have liked to change but feel that they cannot leave.

The Declining Middle: Occupational Change, Social Status and the Populist Right

This is a pre-print of an article that investigates the political consequences of occupational change in times of rapid technological advancement and sheds light on the economic and cultural roots of right-wing populism. A growing body of research shows that the disadvantages of a transforming employment structure are strongly concentrated among semiskilled routine workers in the lower middle class. I argue that individual employment trajectories and relative shifts in the social hierarchy are key to better understand recent political disruptions. A perception of relative economic decline among politically powerful groups—not their impoverishment—drives support for conservative and, especially, right-wing populist parties. Individual-level panel data from three postindustrial democracies and original survey data demonstrate this relationship. A possible interpretation of the findings is that traditional welfare policy might be an ineffective remedy against the ascent of right-wing populism.

Occupational change on the dualised Swedish labour market

In the Swedish labour market, recent research has revealed tendencies of both dualisation – implying growth in temporary employment – and polarisation – referring to increased employment in both low- and high-paid jobs, while middle-paid jobs decrease. This study explores the relationships between changes in the occupational structure and the distribution of temporary employment. Using the Labour Force Survey and comparing changes between 2000 and 2015, the study shows a main pattern of upgrading. However, splitting the analysis into permanent and temporary employment, tendencies of polarisation are revealed: growth at the low-paid end consists of temporary employment, while the increase at the high-paid end is mainly of open-ended contracts. Different kinds of temporary contracts matter – on-call employees are more likely to be found at the low end, and project workers at the high end. The study shows increasing precariousness in the lower end of the occupational structure.

The Declining Middle: Occupational Change, Social Status, and the Populist Right

This article investigates the political consequences of occupational change in times of rapid technological advancement and sheds light on the economic and cultural roots of right-wing populism. A growing body of research shows that the disadvantages of a transforming employment structure are strongly concentrated among semiskilled routine workers in the lower middle class. I argue that individual employment trajectories and relative shifts in the social hierarchy are key to better understand recent political disruptions. A perception of relative economic decline among politically powerful groups—not their impoverishment—drives support for conservative and, especially, right-wing populist parties. Individual-level panel data from three postindustrial democracies and original survey data demonstrate this relationship. A possible interpretation of the findings is that traditional welfare policy might be an ineffective remedy against the ascent of right-wing populism.

The Interplay of Demographic, Economic, and Social History

Historical narrative commonly involves both description and explanation. The nature of the information available to historians gives rise to problems that seldom appear in other disciplines. For example, it is not possible, given the nature of historical data, to conduct controlled experiments to resolve uncertainties concerning the cause of a given event. It is normally the case that the concept of negative and positive feedback is a more appropriate framework for this purpose than causation. Such a framework can be used in discussing the interplay of demographic behavior, urban growth, and occupational change in facilitating England’s escape from the constraints suffered by all organic economies. Comparison of the contrast in this regard between England and continental Europe helps to clarify the nature of the divergence between the island and the continent over a period of 300 years, from the mid-sixteenth to the mid-nineteenth century.