COVID‐19 and Anticoagulation for Atrial Fibrillation: An Analysis of US Nationwide Pharmacy Claims Data

Background Adherence to oral anticoagulation (OAC) is critical for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation. However, the COVID‐19 pandemic may have disrupted access to such therapy. We hypothesized that our analysis of a US nationally representative pharmacy claims database would identify increased incidence of lapses in OAC refills during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Methods and Results We identified individuals with atrial fibrillation prescribed OAC in 2018. We used pharmacy dispensing records to determine the incidence of 7‐day OAC gaps and 15‐day excess supply for each 30‐day interval from January 1, 2019 to July 8, 2020. We constructed interrupted time series analyses to test changes in gaps and supply around the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization (March 11, 2020), and whether such changes differed by medication (warfarin or direct OAC), prescription payment type, or prescriber specialty. We identified 1 301 074 individuals (47.5% women; 54% age ≥75 years). Immediately following the COVID‐19 pandemic declaration, we observed a 14% decrease in 7‐day OAC gaps and 56% increase in 15‐day excess supply (both P <0.001). The increase in 15‐day excess supply was more marked for direct OAC (69% increase) than warfarin users (35%; P <0.001); Medicare beneficiaries (62%) than those with commercial insurance (43%; P <0.001); and those prescribed OAC by a cardiologist (64%) rather than a primary care provider (48%; P <0.001). Conclusions Our analysis of nationwide claims data demonstrated increased OAC possession after the onset of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Our findings may have been driven by waivers of early refill limits and patients’ tendency to stockpile medications in the first weeks of the pandemic.

Why the Par Value of Share Matters to Investors

The purpose of the study is the analysis of the relationship between the par value (also known as nominal value or face value) and the parameters influencing a company’s financing. Additionally, the utility of the par value as a manipulation tool for equity offerings is examined. The study is based on a sample of IPO firms which went public on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The study finds that an excess supply of shares has a negative impact on their valuation. In contrast, decreasing the par value prompts perceptual biases among investors beneficial to the success of the issuance. Moreover, share capital is found to be a useful signaling tool to improve the company’s position on the financial market.

Breakdown of the ideal free distribution under conditions of severe and low competition

Under the ideal free distribution (IFD), the number of organisms competing for a resource at different sites is proportional to the resource distribution among sites. The ideal free distribution of competitors in a heterogeneous environment often predicts habitat matching, where the relative number of individuals using any two patches matches the relative availability of resources in those same two patches. If a resource is scarce, access might be restricted to individuals with high resource holding potential, resulting in deviation from the IFD. The distribution of animals may also deviate from the IFD in the case of resource abundance, when social attraction or preference for specific locations rather than competition may determine distribution. While it was originally developed to explain habitat choice, we apply the habitat matching rule to microscale foraging decisions. We show that chickens feeding from two nondepleting feeders distribute proportionally to feeder space under intermediate levels of competition. However, chicken distribution between the feeders deviates from the IFD when feeder space is limited and competition high. Further, despite decreasing aggression with increasing feeder space, deviation from IFD is also observed under an excess supply of feeder space, indicating different mechanisms responsible for deviations from the IFD. Besides demonstrating IFD sensitivity to competition, these findings highlight IFD’s potential as a biological basis for determining minimal resource requirements in animal housing. Significance statement The ideal free distribution (IFD) predicts how animals ought to distribute themselves within a habitat in order to maximize their payoff. Recent studies, however, have questioned the validity of the IFD concept following anomalous results. We studied the IFD in chickens by systematically varying the amount and distribution of space at two feed troughs. We show that when tested over a sufficiently large range, the distribution of birds depends on the overall resource availability. Furthermore, behavioral data suggest that distinctly different mechanisms account for deviations from the IFD at shortage and excess supply of feeder space, respectively.

Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute: background.

In this chapter, we examine the importance of softwood lumber production to Canada's economy and provide a brief history of the Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute and its resolution on various occasions using U.S. countervailing and anti-dumping duties, export taxes or various types of quota regimes, including tariff rate quotas. The construction of excess supply and demand functions is explained, as are the gains from trade. This helps inform the modeling approaches that are identified in later chapters.

Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute: background.

In this chapter, we examine the importance of softwood lumber production to Canada's economy and provide a brief history of the Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute and its resolution on various occasions using U.S. countervailing and anti-dumping duties, export taxes or various types of quota regimes, including tariff rate quotas. The construction of excess supply and demand functions is explained, as are the gains from trade. This helps inform the modeling approaches that are identified in later chapters.

Rationing as a Determinant of Immigrant Composition and Outcomes

Willingness to migrate is a necessary but not sufficient condition for migration from an origin to destination country. For the United States and other countries with an excess supply of immigrants, the slot-rationing rule is a key determinant of immigrant composition not captured by supply-based models. A stylized rationing-based model better explains the attainment of immigrants in both the United States and Sweden with the model's two variables explaining over 50 percent of the variation in origin country education attainment and earnings.

Are we explaining the movement of hotel room rates correctly?

Demand function, inverse demand function or market equilibrium condition has been used to estimate the empirical models that explain the movement of hotel room rates. However, hotels generally face excess supply of rooms. This research paper develops a simple theoretical model to link hotel room rates to excess supply of hotel rooms. The annual data of Singapore from 1991 to 2017 is used to test this framework. Due to small sample size, with only 27 observations, the bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied on the annual data of hotel industry in Singapore because the obtained estimators are super-consistent. It is found that average hotel room rate and average hotel occupancy rate are cointegrated to confirm hotel room rates and excess supply of hotel rooms are inversely correlated. In order to avoid model mis-specification, major crises are captured by dummy variables which are treated as fixed regressors in the bounds testing approach to cointegration. The empirical and theoretical frameworks used in this study suggest that when hotel occupancy rate is used as an independent variable in modelling the determination of hotel room rates, a researcher is adopting excess supply framework developed in this paper. Furthermore, this framework teaches students in tourism a simplified way to explain the movement of hotel room rates, while still reminding students about the complexity of hotel industry.

Commodity Price Cycles, the Agricultural Trap, and Thailand's Incessant Subsidies

During Thailand's economic development, the shares of output and employment in agriculture have been consistently higher than in other countries at the same level of income. There are push and pull factors for labor transformation. This paper demonstrates that the slow transformation from rural to urban economy is the result of the agricultural trap, which keeps agrarian labor inside the farm sector. In addition to the lack of public investment in human capital, extremely wasteful farm subsidies have weakened the natural process of structural transformation. Farm subsidies encourage land expansion, which usually lags behind commodity booms, resulting in the excess supply of farm products. In turn, when commodity prices collapse, excess supply perpetuates further subsidies and emboldens the pork barrel activities of incumbent governments.

Future of Commodity Markets and Investments

This chapter begins with a breakdown of recent growth trends for the overall commodities market. However, the long-term future of the market will heavily depend on three pressing issues: excess supply, increased regulations, and algorithmic trading. The section on excess supply explores how traders are changing strategies to adjust to the current imbalance between supply and demand, especially in the steel industry, and how that imbalance might change in the future based on global population trends and climate change concerns. The next section examines several regulatory trends, including the dramatic exodus of some investment banks from certain segments of the commodities market followed by a section focusing on how algorithmic trading is influencing how commodities are traded. A discussion of potential scenarios for the commodities market follows. The chapter concludes by examining a few ways in which the market and commodity traders may both survive and even thrive in the future.