Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in December of 2019 in China, the estimation of the pandemic’s case fatality rate (CFR) has been the focus and interest of many stakeholders. In this manuscript, we prove that the method of using the cumulative CFR is static and does not reflect the trend according to the daily change per unit of time. A proportion meta-analysis was carried out on CFR in every country reporting COVID-19 cases. Based on the results, we performed a meta-analysis for global COVID-19 CFR. Each analysis was performed on two different calculations of CFR: according to calendar date and according to days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case. We thus explored an innovative and original calculation of CFR concurrently based on the date of the first confirmed case as well as on a daily basis. For the first time, we showed that using meta-analyses, according to calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case were different. We propose that CFR according to days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case might be a better predictor of the current CFR of COVID-19 and its kinetics.

Bayesian Modeling of Wood-Age Offsets in Cremated Bone

ABSTRACTExperimental studies have shown that significant carbon exchange occurs between bone-apatite and the pyre atmosphere during cremation, which can cause a calendar date offset between the radiocarbon (14C) event and the date of cremation. There are limited empirical data available to assess the magnitude of such wood-age offsets, but the aim of this paper is to test if they can be modeled statistically. We present new 14C dates on modern bone cremated in realistic open-air experiments and on archaeological samples of cremated bone and associated organic material. Experimental results demonstrate a wide range of carbon exchange with a mean of 58.6 ± 14.8%. Archaeological results indicate that the wood-age offsets have an approximately exponential distribution. We test whether the default Charcoal Outlier_Model in OxCal v4.3, developed to reduce the impact of wood-age offsets in dates of charcoal, is appropriate for cremated bone, but find that it slightly underestimates apparent offsets. To counter the intrinsic age of both pyre fuel and unburned bio-apatite, we instead propose a bespoke Cremation Outlier_Model, which combines an exponential distribution of calendar age offsets with a minimum offset, and provides better estimates of the actual dates of cremations.

Features of Determining the Beginning of the Limitation Period

The article defines the features of calculating the limitation period, describes the rules and criteria for determining the beginning of the limitation period. The objective and subjective criterions of beginning of motion of this term are distinguished. On an objective criterion the beginning of term of limitation period begins from the moment of violation of right and interest of person. A subjective criterion marks a moment, when a person knew or could know about violation of the right or person of violator. In this case, the real possibility of such awareness is important, not actual. For legal entities, the subjective criterion is realized through the officials (authorized) of its persons or persons within the organ to which the functions assigned to them are exercised. It is determined that the calculation of the commencement of the limitation period for legal entities does not depend on the change of its authorized persons. The correctness of the calculation of the limitation period from the day after the calendar date in which the offense occurred, which meets the general rules for the calculation of terms and deadlines, is substantiated. It is stated that on the last day of fulfilment of the obligation the person has the right to fulfil it by the end of the day. At the same time, the procedure of applying to the court for technical reasons cannot always be implemented on the day the claim arises, since it requires the preparation of a procedural document — a statement of claim. The features of calculation of term of limitation period are certain for credit obligations and obligations of minor persons. It is concluded that in credit obligations, the limitation period should be calculated from the moment of default, not its parts, that is, the day after the contract expires. However, if the creditor files a claim for full early repayment of the debt, the limitation period should be calculated from the next day after the claim is made. For minors, it is reasonable to calculate the limitation period from the moment of its acquisition or granting them full civil capability.

The brevity and severity of ‘Golden Age’ piracy trials

A sampling of piracy and piracy-related trials involving mainly English (later British) and colonial courts between 1670 and 1731 shows that from opening statements through deliberations they were rapid affairs, few extending beyond a single calendar date, and that on average they appear to have convicted about six of every 10 defendants who pleaded Not Guilty. That conviction figure is impacted by high-volume trials in 1700 and 1722 that acquitted relatively large numbers of defendants; eliminating these two trials from the mix yields a significantly higher conviction rate (about seven in 10) for those who pleaded Not Guilty. This article presents its sampling data, noting appropriate cautions, in the context of the era’s legal proceedings and practices.

Weather-Based Forecasting of Rhizoctonia Web Blight Development on Container-Grown Azalea

The most reliable approach for timing fungicides to control Rhizoctonia web blight on container-grown azalea has been a fixed calendar date. The purpose of this study was to model periods when a preventive control could be applied in advance of significant increases in leaf blight intensity (LBI) in response to a daily accumulated risk value indicating conducive conditions of temperature (18 or more hours between 20 and 30°C when maximum temperature is less than 35°C), leaf wetness (16 or more hours), and/or rainfall (greater than 6.7 mm above the maximum daily irrigation). Analysis used weather measurements taken every 30 minutes from 11 site-year datasets from 2006 to 2011, and weekly or biweekly LBI assessments. Six developmental site-year datasets were analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve procedures to evaluate models. Only a single model predicted true positives and negatives significantly greater than a 50:50 probability. Subsequently, five site-year validation datasets were evaluated. Similar results were obtained from both the developmental and validation datasets, which produced ROC areas of 0.7715 (P = 0.0120) and 0.8393 (P = 0.0034), respectively. The practical application of weather-based forecasting for management of web blight in nurseries is discussed.

Digital Date Equations

This article shares ideas for using the calendar date to increase students' mental mathematics and problem-solving skills. Postscript items are designed as rich grab-and-go resources that any teacher could quickly incorporate into his or her classroom repertoire with little effort and maximum impact.

The setting of fenological-stadium of plum (Prunus domestica) rootstock-variety combinations in 2011–2013

We planted experimental trees, namely 6 plum varieties and 6 plum rootstocks in the spring of 2010, which of aim were the phenological -phases of variety-rootstock combinations analyses. We observed 18 plum varieties – rootstocks combination in Kecskemét, in Garden of Kecskemét Collage. We set the examination with 2 kind irrigations. A plum combination appear in the examination in 6 repetition depend on irrigation. The vegetative period started bursting of buds in 2011 March 15–18.; 2012 March 16–19. and 2013 March 12.–April 2. This was followed green buds stadium shorter or longer periods, than appeared white buds stadium and in the following day we could see started of flowering. The main flowering kept 7–10 days, except in 2012, when arriving frozen by April 8. morning stopped the main flowering. Following flowering we observed fruit falling 3 occasion, these weren’t noticed calendar date. These were in order: fruit falling after set, fruit falling in June, fruits falling before harvest. In 2013 these fruit falling there weren’t considerable. The ripening was characteristically varieties. The most of earlier ripening was ‘Katinka’/‘St Julien A‘, from which we didn’t harvest in 2011, but in 2012 July 17, and in 2013 July 9. pick up some plum fruits. The ‘Cacanska lepotica’ ripped in July 21–30, this was followed in ripening time the ‘Topfive’ in July 19.–August 6., The ‘Toptaste’ in August 5–23., The ‘Jojo’ in August 2–26., and the ‘Topper and ‘Katinka’/‘Mirobalan ’ stopped ripening in August 22.–September begin. The colouring leaves and the falling leaves started continue after harvesting, but we experienced the end of the falling leaves in the first bigger frozen time, October 24.–November 26.