COVID-19 Pandemic: How Effective Are Preventive Control Measures and Is a Complete Lockdown Justified? A Comparison of Countries and States

For fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, countries used control measures of different severity, from “relaxed” to lockdown. Drastic lockdown measures are considered more effective but also have a negative impact on the economy. When comparing the financial value of lost lives to the losses of an economic disaster, the better option seems to be lockdown measures. We developed a new parameter, the effectiveness of control measures, calculated from the 2nd time derivative of daily case data, for 92 countries, states and provinces. We compared this parameter, and also the mortality during and after the effective phase, for countries with and without lockdowns measures by means of the Mann–Whitney test. We did not find any statistically significant difference in the effectiveness between countries with and without lockdowns (p > 0.76). There was also no significant difference in mortality during the effective phase (p > 0.1); however, a significant difference after the effective phase, with higher mortality for lockdown countries, was identified. The effectiveness correlated well with a parameter derived from the reproductive number (R2 = 0.9480). The average duration of the effective phase was 17.3 ± 10.5 days. The results indicated that lockdown measures are not necessarily superior to relaxed measures, which in turn are not necessarily a recipe for failure. Relaxed measures are, however, more economy-friendly.

Prospective Mapping of Schistosomian Risk by Markovian Modelling and Multi-criteria Analysis in Central Côte d'Ivoire

The Bélier region and the autonomous district of Yamoussoukro, is a region of central Côte d'Ivoire that records every year cases of schistosomiasis contamination. Although the figures are low, this area is of interest for epidemiological control. The schistosomiasis infection with schistosoma haematobium or urinary bilharziasis is the most widespread and is important in some areas along the main rivers of the region. The development of maps of areas at risk schistosomiasis by 2027 by Markov modeling using Markov chains observable and by combining layers of sensitivity and vulnerability of 2027 of the infection show a change in the surface risk of contamination from 17% in 2017 to 23% in 2027 of the total area of the region. These areas are mainly located in the departments of Yamoussoukro, Toumodi and Djékanou. 15% of the localities in this region are high-risk areas in 2017 and 23% in 2027. The prediction of risk areas and localities at high risk of contamination by Markov modeling makes any preventive control strategy possible.

INDIVIDUAL PREVENTION OF ESCAPES FROM SETTLEMENT COLONIES

В статье анализируются правовые и организационные аспекты профилактики побегов из колоний-поселений. Автор акцентирует внимание на недостатках и трудностях в обеспечении контроля и надзора за осужденными-поселенцами. Это связано с тем, что нормы пенитенциарного законодательства наделяют осужденных значительным объемом льгот в период отбывания наказания в колониях-поселениях. Отсутствие вооруженной охраны, наличный оборот денежных средств, свобода передвижения по территории колонии, использование труда осужденных на отдельных объектах в пределах субъекта Российской Федерации по месту дислокации учреждения обуславливают невозможность обеспечения должного надзора. В указанных условиях традиционные формы надзора и контроля мало результативны. Автор аргументирует эффективность использования инновационных технических средств контроля и надзора за осужденными, содержащимися в колониях-поселениях, для профилактики побегов. Однако данный вид контроля невозможно осуществлять без внесения изменений в законодательство. На основании изучения нормативной базы, регламентирующей индивидуальную профилактику правонарушений в пенитенциарных учреждениях, а также рекомендаций практических работников, автор делает вывод, что действующие нормы не отвечает современным реалиям. Автор обосновывает расширение круга подучетных лиц, с одновременным увеличением юридического значения профилактического учета посредством закрепления возможности использования технических средств контроля и надзора за ними. The article analyzes the legal and organizational aspects of the prevention of escapes from the settlement colonies. The author focuses on the shortcomings and difficulties in the government of control and supervision over convicted settlers. This is due to the fact that the norms of the penitentiary legislation endow convicts with a significant amount of benefits during the period of serving their sentences in settlement colonies. The lack of armed guards, cash circulation of funds, freedom of movement across the territory, the use of convicts' labor at certain facilities of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation at the location of the institution make it impossible to ensure proper supervision. Under these conditions, the forms of supervision and control are not very effective. The author argues the effectiveness of the use of innovative technical means of control and supervision over convicts held in settlement colonies for the prevention of escapes. However, this type of control cannot be carried out without amending the legislation. Based on the regulatory framework governing the individual prevention of offenses in penitentiary institutions, as well as the recommendations of practitioners, the author concludes that the current application of the measure does not correspond to modern realities. Use of technical means of preventive control over them.

Research on a Power Grid Cascading Failure Prevention and Control Method considering WSN

The practical application of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) in hot fields is summarized. It is found that compared with traditional monitoring methods, it has better adaptability to complex environments and low cost. It is suitable for monitoring power grid operation parameters. Therefore, this paper combines the above network and cascading failures, analyzes its 24-hour continuous and dynamic monitoring of the operation parameters of the power grid, and considers how to use the obtained parameters to analyze the disturbance of the remaining lines after the initial fault of the power grid. To prevent cascading failures in the power grid, a preventive control model considering safety and economy is proposed, and the model is solved by nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II and particle swarm optimization (NSGA2-PSO). Finally, the rationality of this method is verified in the IEEE39 node system.

Control, computing and communication in industrial cyberphysical systems with feedback

The cyber-physical production base technologies are control, computing and connection being applied altogether in the industrial object technological processes automatic regulation systems. They use control technologies in multi-loops and multi-channel regulation systems forming a hierarchy structure. Automatics functional elements unite in the intermediary regulation scheme stabilizing hierarchy control objects, which states are detected with sensors. Computing technologies are used in the cyber-physical production imitation virtual environment and provide processes simulation based on control models and cyber-physical systems digital twins structured in hierarchy levels. The regulation accuracy increase is provided with physical and model processes results comparison detecting non-definition factors acting production processes accuracy. The communication technology is used for the cyber-physical systems net information exchange given with the Internet of Things parameters. The cyber-physical systems continuous work in the non-ideal communication net regulation interval is provided with preventive control signals compensating operation and information delay of automatic conveyor lines. There is a scheme given of multi-loop and multi-channel automatic cyber-physical production using control objects hierarchy based on cyber-physical systems hierarchy and item manufacturing technological tasks.

Preventive Control Strategy of Cascading Fault considering Safety and Economy

The operation and structure of the power system are becoming increasingly complex, and the probability of cascading fault increases. To this end, this paper proposes a cascading fault preventive control strategy that considers safety and the economy. First is to give a mathematical form to discriminate the cascading fault according to the action characteristics of the current-type backup protection. Second, the safety and economy of the system are evaluated in terms of power grid safety margin and generation operation cost, respectively, the initial faults are selected based on the power grid vulnerability and safety margin, and a cascading fault preventive control model is constructed for different initial faults’ scenarios. The model is a two-layer optimization mathematical model, with the inner model being solved by particle swarm optimization to minimize the power grid safety margin. The outer model is solved by the multiobjective algorithm to minimize generation cost and maximizing power grid safety margin. Finally, the calculated Pareto set is evaluated using fuzzy set theory to determine the optimal generator output strategy. The feasibility of the proposed method is verified by conducting a simulation study with the IEEE39 node system as an example.

Optimization of the norms of overhaul runs for traction electric motors of locomotives based on the results of the distribution of failures at the range of the Far Eastern Railway

Objective: Optimization of the rates of overhaul runs on the basis of the results of the study of the distribution of failures of traction motors caused by a critical decrease in the insulation resistance of the windings to reduce the cost of eliminating the consequences of unscheduled repairs of locomotives. Methods: Mathematical statistics, probability theory, theory of reliability of technical systems are applied. Results: A cause-and-effect analysis was carried out of cases when locomotives were placed for unscheduled repairs in 2019–2020. An element has been determined that limits the rates of overhaul mileage of traction electric motors of locomotives. The theoretical distribution of failures of traction electric motors due to a critical decrease in the insulation resistance of its windings is obtained. The optimization of the norms of overhaul runs of locomotives was carried out according to the conditions of current repairs in the amount of TR-2 relative to traction electric motors. It was revealed that the failures are mainly associated with the first period of operation of traction motors. As a result of the analysis of the reasons for the failure of traction electric motors, it was found that most cases of unscheduled repairs fall on the first interval of locomotive runs due to the poor quality of repairs. In this case, the first normal peak of failures falls on the mileage in the modal interval from 156 to 234 thousand kilometers, when the overhaul mileage on TP-2 is 250 thousand kilometers, which necessitates its optimization within the preceding modal interval. Practical importance: The presented version of optimization of overhaul runs can be used to determine the rationality of establishing the norms for the periods of maintenance and repair operations on locomotive units under the conditions of a planned preventive control system for their technical condition

Antifungal Nanoformulation for Biocontrol of Tomato Root and Crown Rot Caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. radicis-lycopersici

Tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicum L.) are the most cultivated and important vegetable crop in the world. These plants can wilt during crop growth due to fusarium wilt (fusariosis), a disease that damages tomato vascular systems. The Fusarium isolated and analyzed in this work correspond to Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. radicis-lycopersici. The isolates were molecularly identified, and analysis was done on the in vitro effects of the nanoemulsions (previously obtained from extracts of Chilean medicinal plants of the genera Psoralea and Escallonia) to inhibit mycelial and conidial germination of the isolates. Subsequently, the nanoemulsions were evaluated under greenhouse conditions for preventive control of fusariosis in the root and crown, with high levels of disease control observed using the highest concentrations of these nanoemulsions, at 250 and 500 ppm.