scholarly journals Understanding model diversity in future precipitation projections for South America

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ø. Hodnebrog ◽  
B. M. Steensen ◽  
L. Marelle ◽  
K. Alterskjær ◽  
S. B. Dalsøren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Central Chile ◽  
Coarse Resolution ◽  
Convection Parameterization ◽  
Precipitation Projections

AbstractPrecipitation patterns are expected to change in the future climate, affecting humans through a number of factors. Global climate models (GCM) are our best tools for projecting large-scale changes in climate, but they cannot make reliable projections locally. To abate this problem, we have downscaled three GCMs with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to 50 km horizontal resolution over South America, and 10 km resolution for central Chile, Peru and southern Brazil. Historical simulations for years 1996–2005 generally compare well to precipitation observations and reanalyses. Future simulations for central Chile show reductions in annual precipitation and increases in the number of dry days at the end-of-the-century for a high greenhouse gas emission scenario, regardless of resolution and GCM boundary conditions used. However, future projections for Peru and southern Brazil are more uncertain, and simulations show that increasing the model resolution can switch the sign of precipitation projections. Differences in future precipitation changes between global/regional and high resolution (10 km) are only mildly influenced by the orography resolution, but linked to the convection parameterization, reflected in very different changes in dry static energy flux divergence, vertical velocity and boundary layer height. Our findings imply that using results directly from GCMs, and even from coarse-resolution (50 km) regional models, may give incorrect conclusions about regional-scale precipitation projections. While climate modelling at convection-permitting scales is computationally costly, we show that coarse-resolution regional simulations using a scale-aware convection parameterization, instead of a more conventional scheme, better mirror fine-resolution precipitation projections.

scholarly journals Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for Germany

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1245
Author(s):  
Frank Kreienkamp ◽  
Philip Lorenz ◽  
Tobias Geiger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Temperature Signal

Climate modelling output that was provided under the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) shows significant changes in model-specific Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) as compared to CMIP5. The newer versions of many Global Climate Models (GCMs) report higher ECS values that result in stronger global warming than previously estimated. At the same time, the multi-GCM spread of ECS is significantly larger than under CMIP5. Here, we analyse how the differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 affect climate projections for Germany. We use the statistical-empirical downscaling method EPISODES in order to downscale GCM data for the scenario pairs RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5 and RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5. We use data sets of the GCMs CanESM, EC-Earth, MPI-ESM, and NorESM. The results show that the GCM-specific changes in the ECS also have an impact at the regional scale. While the temperature signal under regional climate change remains comparable for both CMIP generations in the MPI-ESM chain, the temperature signal increases by up to 3 °C for the RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 scenario pair in the EC-Earth chain. Changes in precipitation are less pronounced and they only show notable differences at the seasonal scale. The reported changes in the climate signal will have direct consequences for society. Climate change impacts previously projected for the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario might occur equally under the new SSP2-4.5 scenario.

scholarly journals Regional drought in the southern of South America: physical aspects

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 88-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Leonidas Minetti ◽  
Walter Mario Vargas ◽  
Arnobio German Poblete ◽  
Maria Elvira Bobba
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Brazilian Coast ◽  
Subtropical Anticyclone ◽  
Central Chile ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Regional Drought

From the indices of monthly and annual climatic drought in six regions in southern South America and their associations with seventeen predictors, the probable physical causes of droughts are analyzed. These indices are used in operational climate monitoring and describe the atmospheric temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) near South America. Subtropical anticyclone activity over both coasts of South America is one of the main predictors, together with its interaction with the continental depression and SST at the coast of Brazil. The highest predictability concentrates in November-December-May and the lowest in March, June and August. In the sub regional scale, the main predictors respond to atmospheric pressure anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean for Argentinean Northwest (NOA), SST in the Brazilian coast for Argentinean Northeast (NEA), anticyclonic conditions over the Pacific and Atlantic for the Central West (CO), the latter and their interaction with the continental depression for Humid Pampa (PH), anticyclonic activity over the Pacific for the Patagonia (PAT) and trans cordillera circulation for Central Chile and Comahue (CHI).

A Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical Downscaling Technique. Part II: End-of-Century Warming Projections Predict a New Climate State in the Los Angeles Region

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (12) ◽  
pp. 4618-4636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengpeng Sun ◽  
Daniel B. Walton ◽  
Alex Hall
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Using the hybrid downscaling technique developed in part I of this study, temperature changes relative to a baseline period (1981–2000) in the greater Los Angeles region are downscaled for two future time slices: midcentury (2041–60) and end of century (2081–2100). Two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are considered, corresponding to greenhouse gas emission reductions over coming decades (RCP2.6) and to continued twenty-first-century emissions increases (RCP8.5). All available global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are downscaled to provide likelihood and uncertainty estimates. By the end of century under RCP8.5, a distinctly new regional climate state emerges: average temperatures will almost certainly be outside the interannual variability range seen in the baseline. Except for the highest elevations and a narrow swath very near the coast, land locations will likely see 60–90 additional extremely hot days per year, effectively adding a new season of extreme heat. In mountainous areas, a majority of the many baseline days with freezing nighttime temperatures will most likely not occur. According to a similarity metric that measures daily temperature variability and the climate change signal, the RCP8.5 end-of-century climate will most likely be only about 50% similar to the baseline. For midcentury under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 and end of century under RCP2.6, these same measures also indicate a detectable though less significant climatic shift. Therefore, while measures reducing global emissions would not prevent climate change at this regional scale in the coming decades, their impact would be dramatic by the end of the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals Regional Distance Routes Estimation for Municipal Solid Waste Disposal, Case Study São Paulo State, Brazil

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (13) ◽  
pp. 3964
Author(s):  
Laryssa Morais ◽  
Victor Nascimento ◽  
Silvio Simões ◽  
Jean Ometto
Keyword(s):  
Municipal Solid Waste ◽  
Solid Waste ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Environmental Cost ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
São Paulo State

The urban population increase in the world, the economic expansion, and the rise in living standards associated with society’s habits and lifestyles accelerated the municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in undeveloped countries, such as in Brazil, in which the generation increased by 25% from 2012 to 2017. In the same period, the São Paulo state, the richest Brazilian state, increased its municipal solid waste generation by 51%. All this MSW needed to be collected and transported, and this process has a high economic and environmental cost. Therefore, this study aims to identify, using spatial analysis, the routes used by MSW trucks to estimate the distances traveled to dispose of the MSW on a regional scale considering all municipalities in the São Paulo state. The findings showed that the landfill numbers decrease, mainly individual ones, which receive MSW only from the city where it is located. Otherwise, the consortium landfills number is increasing, as well as the number of municipalities that share the same disposal site. Consequently, the distances to transport MSW from urban areas to final disposal sites increased by about 55% from 2012 to 2017, reaching 613 million kilometers during this period. This total distance is sufficient to make more than 12,806 laps on Earth and contribute to high fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emission.

Two new species of Margyricarpus (Rosaceae, Sanguisorbeae) from high-elevation grasslands in southern Brazil, and other notes on the genus Margyricarpus

Phytotaxa ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 496 (3) ◽  
pp. 281-293
Author(s):  
LUÍS A. FUNEZ ◽  
GUSTAVO HASSEMER ◽  
NIVALDO PERONI ◽  
ELISANDRO R. DRECHSLER-SANTOS
Keyword(s):  
New Species ◽  
South America ◽  
Species Complex ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Distribution Map ◽  
Natural Grasslands ◽  
Two New Species

Margyricarpus pinnatus is a poorly understood entity from natural grasslands of South America that it better considered as a species complex. In this work we contribute to the advancement of the taxonomic knowledge of this challenging species complex by describing two new species of Margyricarpus from southern Brazil. We present field photographs, illustrations, a distribution map and ecologic and conservation notes on the new species.

scholarly journals On the fossil Remains of Panochthus Burmeister, 1866 (Xenarthra, Cingulata, Glyptodontidae) from the Pleistocene of southern Brazil

2015 ◽  
Vol 87 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
José D. Ferreira ◽  
Martín Zamorano ◽  
Ana Maria Ribeiro
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
Species Level ◽  
External Morphology ◽  
Latitudinal Distribution ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
Diagnostic Features ◽  
New Material

The genus Panochthus represents the last lineage of "Panochthini" recorded in the Pleistocene. This genus has a wide latitudinal distribution in South America, and in Brazil it occurs in the southern and northeastern regions. In this paper we describe new material (isolated osteoderms and caudal tube fragments) assigned to Panochthus from the state of Rio Grande do Sul (southern Brazil) and discuss some taxonomic issues related to Panochthus tuberculatus and Panochthus greslebini based on this material . The occurrence of P. greslebini is the first for outside the Brazilian Intertropical Region. In addition, we describe new diagnostic features to differentiate the osteoderms of P. greslebini and P. tuberculatus. Unfortunately, it was not possible to identify some osteoderms at the species level. Interestingly, they showed four distinct morphotypes characterized by their external morphology, and thus were attributed to Panochthus sp. Lastly, we conclude that in addition to P.tuberculatus registered to southern Brazil, there is another species of the genus, assignable to P. cf. P. greslebini. Our analysis reinforce the reliability of caudal tube characters for the classification of species of Panochthus.

scholarly journals Does EO NDVI seasonal metrics capture variations in species composition and biomass due to grazing in semi-arid grassland savannas?

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 4407-4419 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Olsen ◽  
S. Miehe ◽  
P. Ceccato ◽  
R. Fensholt
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Species Composition ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Grazing Intensity ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Grazing Pressure ◽  
Modis Ndvi ◽  
Coarse Resolution

Abstract. Most regional scale studies of vegetation in the Sahel have been based on Earth observation (EO) imagery due to the limited number of sites providing continuous and long term in situ meteorological and vegetation measurements. From a long time series of coarse resolution normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data a greening of the Sahel since the 1980s has been identified. However, it is poorly understood how commonly applied remote sensing techniques reflect the influence of extensive grazing (and changes in grazing pressure) on natural rangeland vegetation. This paper analyses the time series of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI metrics by comparing it with data from the Widou Thiengoly test site in northern Senegal. Field data include grazing intensity, end of season standing biomass (ESSB) and species composition from sizeable areas suitable for comparison with moderate – coarse resolution satellite imagery. It is shown that sampling plots excluded from grazing have a different species composition characterized by a longer growth cycle as compared to plots under controlled grazing or communal grazing. Also substantially higher ESSB is observed for grazing exclosures as compared to grazed areas, substantially exceeding the amount of biomass expected to be ingested by livestock for this area. The seasonal integrated NDVI (NDVI small integral; capturing only the signal inherent to the growing season recurrent vegetation), derived using absolute thresholds to estimate start and end of growing seasons, is identified as the metric most strongly related to ESSB for all grazing regimes. However plot-pixel comparisons demonstrate how the NDVI/ESSB relationship changes due to grazing-induced variation in annual plant species composition and the NDVI values for grazed plots are only slightly lower than the values observed for the ungrazed plots. Hence, average ESSB in ungrazed plots since 2000 was 0.93 t ha−1, compared to 0.51 t ha−1 for plots subjected to controlled grazing and 0.49 t ha−1 for communally grazed plots, but the average integrated NDVI values for the same period were 1.56, 1.49, and 1.45 for ungrazed, controlled and communal, respectively, i.e. a much smaller difference. This indicates that a grazing-induced development towards less ESSB and shorter-cycled annual plants with reduced ability to turn additional water in wet years into biomass is not adequately captured by seasonal NDVI metrics.

scholarly journals Global horizontal irradiation: spatio-temporal variability on a regional scale in the south of the Pampeana region (Argentina)

2021 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-233
Author(s):  
María Eugenia Fernández ◽  
Jorge Osvaldo Gentili ◽  
Ana Casado ◽  
Alicia María Campo
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Seasonal Dynamics ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
The South ◽  
Monsoon System ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Dynamics Of Action

The objective of this work is to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) on a regional scale and its relationship with frequent synoptic situations in the south of the Pampeana region (Argentina). It was verified that the latitudinal pattern of distribution of the GHI is modified in the region by cloud cover, which is in turn determined by the seasonal dynamics of action centers and the passage of fronts in summer and winter. The South America Monsoon System (SAMS) defines differential situations of cloudiness and rainfall in the region, which affect GHI. GHI increased successively between the decades 1981–2010, a factor associated with the variability of rainfall that characterizes the region.

scholarly journals CRI-HOM: A novel chemical mechanism for simulating Highly Oxygenated Organic Molecules (HOMs) in global chemistry-aerosol-climate models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Weber ◽  
Alexander Archibald ◽  
Paul Griffiths ◽  
Scott Archer-Nicholls ◽  
Torsten Berndt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Organic Molecules ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Chemical Mechanism ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Particle Nucleation ◽  
Peroxy Radicals

Abstract. We present here results from a new mechanism, CRI-HOM, which we have developed to simulate the formation of highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) from the gas phase oxidation of α-pinene, one of the most widely emitted BVOCs by mass. This concise scheme adds 12 species and 66 reactions to the Common Representative Intermediates (CRI) mechanism v2.2 Reduction 5 and enables the representation of semi-explicit HOM treatment suitable for long term global chemistry- aerosol-climate modelling, within a comprehensive tropospheric chemical mechanism. The key features of the new mechanism are (i) representation of the autoxidation of peroxy radicals from the hydroxyl radical and ozone initiated reactions of α-pinene, (ii) formation of multiple generations of peroxy radicals, (iii) formation of accretion products (dimers) and (iv) isoprene-driven suppression of accretion product formation, as observed in experiments. The mechanism has been constructed through optimisation against a series of flow tube laboratory experiments. The mechanism predicts a HOM yield of 4–6 % under conditions of low to moderate NOx, in line with experimental observations, and reproduces qualitatively the decline in HOM yield and concentration at higher NOx. The mechanism gives a HOM yield that also increases with temperature, in line with observations, and our mechanism compares favourably to some of the limited observations of [HOM] observed in the boreal forest in Finland and in the south east USA. The reproduction of isoprene-driven suppression of HOMs is a key step forward as it enables global climate models to capture the interaction between the major BVOC species, along with the potential climatic feedbacks. This suppression is demonstrated when the mechanism is used to simulate atmospheric profiles over the boreal forest and rainforest; different isoprene concentrations result in different [HOM] distributions, illustrating the importance of BVOC interactions in atmospheric composition and climate. Finally particle nucleation rates calculated from [HOM] in present day and pre- industrial atmospheres suggest that sulphuric acid free nucleation can compete effectively with other nucleation pathways in the boreal forest, particularly in the pre-industrial, with important implications for the aerosol budget and radiative forcing.

scholarly journals Multiple incursion pathways for Helicoverpa armigera in Brazil show its genetic diversity spreading in a connected world

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas A. Arnemann ◽  
Stephen H. Roxburgh ◽  
Tom Walsh ◽  
Jerson V.C. Guedes ◽  
Karl H.J. Gordon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Gene Flow ◽  
South America ◽  
New World ◽  
Flow Patterns ◽  
South American ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
American Continent ◽  
Central Brazil ◽  
South American Continent

AbstractThe Old World cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera was first detected in Brazil with subsequent reports from Paraguay, Argentina, Bolivia, and Uruguay. This pattern suggests that the H. armigera spread across the South American continent following incursions into northern/central Brazil, however, this hypothesis has not been tested. Here we compare northern and central Brazilian H. armigera mtDNA COI haplotypes with those from southern Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, and Paraguay. We infer spatial genetic and gene flow patterns of this dispersive pest in the agricultural landscape of South America. We show that the spatial distribution of H. armigera mtDNA haplotypes and its inferred gene flow patterns in the southwestern region of South America exhibited signatures inconsistent with a single incursion hypothesis. Simulations on spatial distribution patterns show that the detection of rare and/or the absence of dominant mtDNA haplotypes in southern H. armigera populations are inconsistent with genetic signatures observed in northern and central Brazil. Incursions of H. armigera into the New World are therefore likely to have involved independent events in northern/central Brazil, and southern Brazil/Uruguay-Argentina-Paraguay. This study demonstrates the significant biosecurity challenges facing the South American continent, and highlights alternate pathways for introductions of alien species into the New World.

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