The impact of long-term non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and control: the value and limitations of early models

Mathematical models of epidemics are important tools for predicting epidemic dynamics and evaluating interventions. Yet, because early models are built on limited information, it is unclear how long they will accurately capture epidemic dynamics. Using a stochastic SEIR model of COVID-19 fitted to reported deaths, we estimated transmission parameters at different time points during the first wave of the epidemic (March–June, 2020) in Santa Clara County, California. Although our estimated basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) remained stable from early April to late June (with an overall median of 3.76), our estimated effective reproduction number ( R E ) varied from 0.18 to 1.02 in April before stabilizing at 0.64 on 27 May. Between 22 April and 27 May, our model accurately predicted dynamics through June; however, the model did not predict rising summer cases after shelter-in-place orders were relaxed in June, which, in early July, was reflected in cases but not yet in deaths. While models are critical for informing intervention policy early in an epidemic, their performance will be limited as epidemic dynamics evolve. This paper is one of the first to evaluate the accuracy of an early epidemiological compartment model over time to understand the value and limitations of models during unfolding epidemics.

Effects of B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 on COVID-19 Dynamics: A Campus Reopening Study

The timing and sequence of safe campus reopening has remained the most controversial topic in higher education since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. By the end of March 2020, almost all colleges and universities in the United States had transitioned to an all online education and many institutions have not yet fully reopened to date. For a residential campus like Stanford University, the major challenge of reopening is to estimate the number of incoming infectious students at the first day of class. Here we learn the number of incoming infectious students using Bayesian inference and perform a series of retrospective and projective simulations to quantify the risk of campus reopening. We create a physics-based probabilistic model to infer the local reproduction dynamics for each state and adopt a network SEIR model to simulate the return of all undergraduates, broken down by their year of enrollment and state of origin. From these returning student populations, we predict the outbreak dynamics throughout the spring, summer, fall, and winter quarters using the inferred reproduction dynamics of Santa Clara County. We compare three different scenarios: the true outbreak dynamics under the wild-type SARS-CoV-2, and the hypothetical outbreak dynamics under the new COVID-19 variants B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 with 56% and 50% increased transmissibility. Our study reveals that even small changes in transmissibility can have an enormous impact on the overall case numbers. With no additional countermeasures, during the most affected quarter, the fall of 2020, there would have been 203 cases under baseline reproduction, compared to 4727 and 4256 cases for the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 variants. Our results suggest that population mixing presents an increased risk for local outbreaks, especially with new and more infectious variants emerging across the globe. Tight outbreak control through mandatory quarantine and test-trace-isolate strategies will be critical in successfully managing these local outbreak dynamics.

Perceptions of the HPV Vaccine in Indian Immigrant Mothers

Each year, over 14 millions Americans are infected with human papillomavirus, or HPV. Yet, the 2020 US goal is to vaccinate 80% of all adolescents for HPV is over 25% higher than the actual vaccination rate of teens, which was 54.2% in 2019. In California specifically, Asians were found to have the lowest HPV vaccination rates compared to other ethnic groups. When looking at the major Asian subgroups, the Indian American population has grown by 76% between 2000 and 2010 in Santa Clara County. Yet, no previous studies have been conducted about the Indian immigrant population. Thus, this paper explores the following research question: How do Indian immigrant mothers in Santa Clara County, California perceive vaccinating their daughters for HPV? A phenomenological study using one-on-one virtual interviews was conducted using two question frameworks to structure the interview questions: the Socio-Context framework and Andersen's Behavioral Model of Health Services. Indian immigrant mothers’ were found to significantly prioritize their daughter’s safety. Another notable theme was that there was a strong trust in the overall science of vaccines to keep the daughters safe. Although many mothers believed that the HPV vaccine was a decision solely between the parents and the doctor, some mothers believed that their community would be influenced fairly strongly by the actions of their family and friends regarding vaccinating their children for HPV. Overall, this study examined the HPV vaccine perception in an understudied population, Indian immigrant mothers in California.

Death from Primary Amebic Meningoencephalitis After Recreational Water Exposure During Recent Travel to India — Santa Clara County, California, 2020

Background In February 2020, a man returned to the United States after an 11-day trip to India and died of primary amebic meningoencephalitis (PAM), caused by nasal exposure to the free-living ameba Naegleria fowleri found in warm water. We identified potential exposures, confirmed etiology, and described molecular epidemiology of the infection. Methods We reviewed medical records to describe his clinical course and interviewed his family to determine water exposures. Genotyping was performed on the N. fowleri strain and compared with North American strains through repetitive non-polymorphic nuclear loci analysis to identify differences. We reviewed N. fowleri strains in the National Center for Biotechnology Information database (GenBank) to determine genotypes present in India. Results The patient became acutely encephalopathic 3 days after returning; the only known nasal water exposure was at an indoor swimming pool in India 5 days earlier. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) testing demonstrated neutrophil predominant pleocytosis and low glucose, but negative Gram stain and culture. CSF microscopy revealed trophozoites; N. fowleri was detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction. Classical genotyping confirmed genotype I, common in the United States and among Indian strains in GenBank. The North American N. fowleri strains and the patient’s strain varied at five non-polymorphic loci. Conclusion A man died from PAM after likely exposure at a vacation rental pool in India. We recommend including PAM in the differential diagnosis when CSF studies suggest bacterial meningitis, but Gram stain is negative. Genotyping can advance understanding of N. fowleri molecular epidemiology and support future investigations.

Passive and active immunity in infants born to mothers with SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy: prospective cohort study

ObjectiveTo investigate maternal immunoglobulins’ (IgM, IgG) response to SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy and IgG transplacental transfer, to characterise neonatal antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and to longitudinally follow actively and passively acquired antibodies in infants.DesignA prospective observational study.SettingPublic healthcare system in Santa Clara County (California, USA).ParticipantsWomen with symptomatic or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy and their infants were enrolled between 15 April 2020 and 31 March 2021.OutcomesSARS-CoV-2 serology analyses in the cord and maternal blood at delivery and longitudinally in infant blood between birth and 28 weeks of life.ResultsOf 145 mothers who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during pregnancy, 86 had symptomatic infections: 78 with mild-moderate symptoms, and 8 with severe-critical symptoms. The seropositivity rates of the mothers at delivery was 65% (95% CI 0.56% to 0.73%) and the cord blood was 58% (95% CI 0.49% to 0.66%). IgG levels significantly correlated between the maternal and cord blood (Rs=0.93, p<0.0001). IgG transplacental transfer ratio was significantly higher when the first maternal positive PCR was 60–180 days before delivery compared with <60 days (1.2 vs 0.6, p<0.0001). Infant IgG seroreversion rates over follow-up periods of 1–4, 5–12, and 13–28 weeks were 8% (4 of 48), 12% (3 of 25), and 38% (5 of 13), respectively. The IgG seropositivity in the infants was positively related to IgG levels in the cord blood and persisted up to 6 months of age. Two newborns showed seroconversion at 2 weeks of age with high levels of IgM and IgG, including one premature infant with confirmed intrapartum infection.ConclusionsMaternal SARS-CoV-2 IgG is efficiently transferred across the placenta when infections occur more than 2 months before delivery. Maternally derived passive immunity may persist in infants up to 6 months of life. Neonates are capable of mounting a strong antibody response to perinatal SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Passive and active immunity in infants born to mothers with SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy: Prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE To investigate maternal immunoglobulin (IgM, IgG) response to SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy and IgG transplacental transfer, to characterize neonatal antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and to longitudinally follow actively- and passively-acquired SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in infants. DESIGN A prospective observational study. SETTING A public healthcare system in Santa Clara County (CA, USA). PARTICIPANTS Women with SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy and their infants were enrolled between April 15, 2020 and March 31, 2021. OUTCOMES SARS-CoV-2 serology analyses in the cord and maternal blood at delivery and longitudinally in infant blood between birth and 28 weeks of life. RESULTS Of 145 mothers who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during pregnancy, 86 had symptomatic infections: 78 with mild-moderate symptoms, and eight with severe-critical symptoms. Of the 147 newborns, two infants showed seroconversion at two weeks of age with high levels of IgM and IgG, including one premature infant with confirmed intrapartum infection. The seropositivity rates of the mothers at delivery was 65% (95% CI 0.56-0.73) and the cord blood was 58% (95% CI 0.49-0.66). IgG levels significantly correlated between the maternal and cord blood (Rs= 0.93, p< 0.0001). IgG transplacental transfer ratio was significantly higher when the first maternal positive PCR was 60-180 days before delivery compared to <60 days (1.2 vs. 0.6, p=<0.0001). Infant IgG negative conversion rate over follow-up periods of 1-4, 5-12, and 13-28 weeks were 8% (4/48), 12% (3/25), and 38% (5/13), respectively. The IgG seropositivity in the infants was positively related to IgG levels in the cord blood and persisted up to six months of age. CONCLUSIONS Maternal SARS-CoV-2 IgG is efficiently transferred across the placenta when infections occur more than two months before delivery. Maternally-derived passive immunity may protect infants up to six months of life. Neonates mount a strong antibody response to perinatal SARS-CoV-2 infection.