In situ X-ray and acoustic observations of deep seismic faulting upon phase transitions in mantle olivine

Activity of deep earthquakes, which increases with depth from ~400 km to a peak at ~600 km and abruptly decreases to zero at 680 km, is enigmatic, because brittle failure is unlikely to occur under the corresponding pressures of 13−24 GPa. It has been suggested that pressure-induced phase transitions of olivine in subducted slabs are responsible for occurrence of the deep earthquakes, based on deformation experiments under pressure. However, most experiments were made using analogue materials of mantle olivine and at pressures below ~5 GPa, which are not applicable directly to the actual slabs. Here we report the results of deformation experiments combined with in situ X-ray observations and acoustic emission measurements on (Mg,Fe)2SiO4 olivine at 11−17 GPa and 860−1250 K, equivalent to the conditions of colder regions of the slabs subducted into the mantle transition region. We find that faulting occurs only at very limited temperatures of 1100−1160 K, accompanied by intense acoustic emissions from both inside and outside of the sample, immediately before the rupture. The formation of lenticular packets filled with nanocrystalline olivine and wadsleyite is confirmed in the recovered sample without faulting, indicating that the faulting is caused by adiabatic shear heating along the weak layer of the connected lenticular packets, where nanocrystalline olivine plays important roles. Our study suggests that the transformational faulting occurs on the isothermal surface of the metastable olivine wedge in subducted slabs, leading to deep earthquakes in limited regions and depth range.

Mantle earthquakes in the Crimea-Black Sea-Caucasus regions

The question of the existence of foci of deep earthquakes in the region of the Crimea-Black Sea-Caucasus is extremely important from the point of view of the geodynamics of the region. Previously it was thought that only crustal earthquakes could occur in this region. Recently, results have been obtained that show that earthquakes with depths of at least 300 km occur in this region. The article discusses the question of how plausible these results are and why they were not obtained earlier. Seven specific examples of the ambiguous determination of the depth of earthquake hypocenters in the Crimea-Black Sea-Caucasus region are considered. These examples clearly show that determining the coordinates of earthquake hypocenters using algorithms based on the Geiger method does not allow one to uniquely determine the depth of the hypocenters. The article gives an idea of the authors about the origin of mantle earthquakes in the Caucasian and Crimean-Black Sea regions. For the Caucasus region, mantle earthquakes are associated with two reasons: submersion of the lithospheric layer; in the asthenospheric layer, represented in the seismotomographic sections by a low-velocity anomaly, the nature of earthquake foci is associated with fluids formed during phase transition reactions. In the Crimean-Black Sea region, earthquake foci are located in the lithosphere layer, and the sliding of the lithosphere along the less viscous underlying layer of the upper mantle causes tectonic movements in the lithosphere accompanied by earthquakes. In addition, to determine the coordinates of the hypocenters of the Crimean and Caucasian earthquakes during routine processing, hodographs were used for depths not exceeding 35 km for the Crimea and 50 km for the Caucasus and 150 for the North Caucasus. This circumstance is the main reason why deep earthquakes could not be detected.

Extensions of Markov Modulated Poisson Processes and Their Applications to Deep Earthquakes

<p>The focus of this thesis is on the Markov modulated Poisson process (MMPP) and its extensions, aiming to propose appropriate statistical models for the occurrence patterns of main New Zealand deep earthquakes. Such an attempt might be beyond the scope of the MMPP and its extensions, however we hope its main patterns can be characterized by current models proposed in three parts of the thesis. The first part of the thesis is concerned with introductions and preliminaries of discrete time hidden Markov models (HMMs) and MMPP. The exibility in model formulation and openness in model framework of HMMs are reviewed in this part, suggesting also possible extensions of MMPP. The second part of the thesis is mainly about several extensions of MMPP. One extension of MMPP is by associating each occurrence of MMPP with a mark. Such an extension is potentially useful for spatial-temporal modelling or other point processes with marks. A special case of this type of extension is by allowing the multiple observations of MMPP synchronized together under the same Markov chain. This extension opens the possibility of modelling multiple point process observations with weak dependence. The third extension is motivated by the attempt to describe small scale temporal clustering existing in the deep earthquakes via treating the recognized aftershocks as marks which itself forms a finite point process. The rest of the second part focuses on some information theoretical aspects of MMPPs such as the entropy rate of the underlying Markov chain and observed point process respectively and their mutual information rate. A conjecture on the possible links between mutual information rate of MMPP and the Fisher information of the estimated parameters is suggested. The second part on extensions of MMPP is featured by the derivation of the likelihood and complete likelihood, parameter estimation via EM algorithm, state smoothing estimation and model evaluation through systematic applications of rescaling theory of multivariate point processes and marked point processes. The third part of the thesis includes the applications of these methods to the deep earthquakes in New Zealand. We first evaluate the data coverage, catalogue completeness and explore its descriptive characteristics and empirical properties such as epicentral distributions, depth distributions and magnitude distributions. Clustering behavior is studied via the second order moment analysis of point processes in the chapter 8. We also apply, the stress release models and the ETAS models which are usually used for shallow earthquakes, to the New Zealand deep earthquakes and provide tentative explanations of why they are not satisfactory for the deep earth-quakes. The chapter 9 is on the applications of MMPP and its extensions to the New Zealand deep earthquakes. Conclusions and future studies are presented in chapter 10.</p>

Extensions of Markov Modulated Poisson Processes and Their Applications to Deep Earthquakes

<p>The focus of this thesis is on the Markov modulated Poisson process (MMPP) and its extensions, aiming to propose appropriate statistical models for the occurrence patterns of main New Zealand deep earthquakes. Such an attempt might be beyond the scope of the MMPP and its extensions, however we hope its main patterns can be characterized by current models proposed in three parts of the thesis. The first part of the thesis is concerned with introductions and preliminaries of discrete time hidden Markov models (HMMs) and MMPP. The exibility in model formulation and openness in model framework of HMMs are reviewed in this part, suggesting also possible extensions of MMPP. The second part of the thesis is mainly about several extensions of MMPP. One extension of MMPP is by associating each occurrence of MMPP with a mark. Such an extension is potentially useful for spatial-temporal modelling or other point processes with marks. A special case of this type of extension is by allowing the multiple observations of MMPP synchronized together under the same Markov chain. This extension opens the possibility of modelling multiple point process observations with weak dependence. The third extension is motivated by the attempt to describe small scale temporal clustering existing in the deep earthquakes via treating the recognized aftershocks as marks which itself forms a finite point process. The rest of the second part focuses on some information theoretical aspects of MMPPs such as the entropy rate of the underlying Markov chain and observed point process respectively and their mutual information rate. A conjecture on the possible links between mutual information rate of MMPP and the Fisher information of the estimated parameters is suggested. The second part on extensions of MMPP is featured by the derivation of the likelihood and complete likelihood, parameter estimation via EM algorithm, state smoothing estimation and model evaluation through systematic applications of rescaling theory of multivariate point processes and marked point processes. The third part of the thesis includes the applications of these methods to the deep earthquakes in New Zealand. We first evaluate the data coverage, catalogue completeness and explore its descriptive characteristics and empirical properties such as epicentral distributions, depth distributions and magnitude distributions. Clustering behavior is studied via the second order moment analysis of point processes in the chapter 8. We also apply, the stress release models and the ETAS models which are usually used for shallow earthquakes, to the New Zealand deep earthquakes and provide tentative explanations of why they are not satisfactory for the deep earth-quakes. The chapter 9 is on the applications of MMPP and its extensions to the New Zealand deep earthquakes. Conclusions and future studies are presented in chapter 10.</p>

Ground motion models for shallow crustal and deep earthquakes in Hawaii and analyses of the 2018 M 6.9 Kalapana sequence

The damaging 4 May 2018 M 6.9 Kalapana earthquake and its aftershocks have provided the largest suite of strong motion records ever produced for an earthquake sequence in Hawaii exceeding the number of records obtained in the deep 2006 M 6.7 Kiholo Bay earthquake. These records provided the best opportunity to understand the processes of strong ground shaking in Hawaii from shallow crustal (< 20 km) earthquakes. There were four foreshocks and more than 100 aftershocks of M 4.0 and greater recorded by the seismic stations. The mainshock produced only a modest horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.24 g at an epicentral distance of 21.5 km. In this study, we evaluated the 2018 strong motion data as well as previously recorded shallow crustal earthquakes on the Big Island. There are still insufficient strong motion data to develop an empirical ground motion model (GMM) and so we developed a GMM using the stochastic numerical modeling approach similar to what we had done for deep Hawaiian (>20 km) earthquakes. To provide inputs into the stochastic model, we performed an inversion to estimate kappa, stress drops, Ro, and Q(f) using the shallow crustal earthquake database. The GMM is valid from M 4.0 to 8.0 and at Joyner–Boore (RJB) distances up to 400 km. Models were developed for eight VS30 (time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m) values corresponding to the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site bins: A (1500 m/s), B (1080 m/s), B/C (760 m/s), C (530 m/s), C/D (365 m/s), D (260 m/s), D/E (185 m/s), and E (150 m/s). The GMM is for PGA, peak horizontal ground velocity (PGV), and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral acceleration (SA) at 26 periods from 0.01 to 10 s. In addition, we updated our GMM for deep earthquakes (>20 km) to include the same NEHRP site bins using the same approach for the crustal earthquake GMM.

Slow deformation event between large intraslab earthquakes at the Tonga Trench inferred from geodetic and seismological data

&lt;p&gt;Slow deformations associated with a subducting slab can affect quasi-static displacements and seismicity over a wide range of depths. Here, we analyse the seismotectonic activities at the Tonga-Trench subduction zone, which is the world&amp;#8217;s most active area with regard to deep earthquakes, using data from GNSS and an earthquake catalogue. We find that trenchward transient displacements and quiescence of deep earthquakes, in terms of background seismicity, were bounded in time by large intraslab earthquakes in 2009 and 2013. We call this event as &quot;slow deformation event&amp;#8221;. It may have been triggered by a distant and shallow M8.1 earthquake, which implies a slow slip event at the plate interface or a temporal acceleration of the subduction of the Pacific Plate.&lt;/p&gt;

Differences in the rupture process for very deep earthquakes at the Peru-Brazil and Peru-Bolivia borders

&lt;p&gt;We analyze the differences in the rupture process for twelve very deep earthquakes (h&gt;500 km) at the Peruvian-Brazilian subduction zone. These earthquakes are produced by the contact between the Nazca and the South America Plates. We have estimated the focal mechanism from teleseismic waveforms, using the slip inversion over the rupture plane, testing rupture velocities ranging from 2.5 km/s to 4.5 km/s, and analyzing the slip distribution for each &amp;#160;rupture velocity. The selected 12 earthquakes have occurred in the period 1994- 2016, with magnitudes between 5.9 and 8.2 and focal depth 500- 700 km. They can be separated in two groups attending to their epicentral location. The first group is formed by 9 events located, in the Peruvian-Brazil border, with epicenters following a NNW-SSE alignment, parallel to the trench. Their focal mechanisms present solutions of normal faulting with planes oriented in NS direction, dipping about 45 degrees and with vertical pressure axis. The second group is formed by three earthquakes located to the south of the first group in northern Bolivia. Their mechanisms show dip-slip motion with a near vertical plane, oriented in NW-SE direction and the pressure axis dipping 45&amp;#186; to the NE. The moment rate functions correspond to single ruptures with time durations from 6s to 12s, with the exception of the large 1994 Bolivian earthquake (Mw = 8.2) which presents a complex and longer STF. The different mechanisms for the two groups of earthquakes confirm the different dip of the subducting Nazca plate at the two areas, with the steeper part at the southern one. &amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;