Probabilistic Predictions from Deterministic Atmospheric River Forecasts with Deep Learning

Deep Learning (DL) post-processing methods are examined to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts from single-member numerical weather predictions of integrated vapor transport (IVT). Using a 34-year reforecast, based on the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes West-WRF mesoscale model of North American West Coast IVT, the dynamically/statistically derived 0-120 hour probabilistic forecasts for IVT under atmospheric river (AR) conditions are tested. These predictions are compared to the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) dynamic model and the GEFS calibrated with a neural network. Additionally, the DL methods are tested against an established, but more rigid, statistical-dynamical ensemble method (the Analog Ensemble). The findings show, using continuous ranked probability skill score and Brier skill score as verification metrics, that the DL methods compete with or outperform the calibrated GEFS system at lead times from 0-48 hours and again from 72-120 hours for AR vapor transport events. Additionally, the DL methods generate reliable and skillful probabilistic forecasts. The implications of varying the length of the training dataset are examined and the results show that the DL methods learn relatively quickly and ~10 years of hindcast data are required to compete with the GEFS ensemble.

Sitting and talking together: packaging meaning into verbs with the neighbors

As observed by Koptjevskaja-Tamm and Liljegren, the impact of language contact on grammatical typology is well recognized, but the field of lexico-semantic areal typology is still young. Here some mechanisms leading to an areal pattern are explored in the domain of certain sets of basic verbs in languages indigenous to the North American West. The patterns involve the apparent evocation, as part of the meanings of the common verbs, of certain features of the most immediately involved participant, particularly number, animacy, shape, and/or consistency. Two mechanisms apparently underlie the areal patterns. First, bilinguals accustomed to distinguishing such features lexically in verbs in one of their languages may simply choose more specific verbs in another language on a regular basis until, over time, original hyponyms come to be basic level terms. Second, shadows of compounding and derivation can be seen in some pairs of verbs in some languages. Patterns elsewhere in the language or in a neighbor can stimulate such formations and accelerate their lexicalization, ultimately blurring their internal structure and hastening their ascent to basic-level status.

Sustaining Heritage Patterns in Mining Towns of the North American West: A Historico-Geographical Approach

Urban morphology provides essential methodologies to inform processes for heritage preservation and design intervention in historic places. Among principal research methods used by urban morphologists, the historico-geographical approach is particularly helpful for interpreting formative and transformative processes and for identifying key elements that define the physical structure of historic contexts at a town or neighbourhood scale. This article will discuss applications of an adapted historico-geographical approach to analyse heritage patterns in 19th-century mining towns located in mountainous regions of the western United States. Profiled case studies are part of an ongoing study intended to inform design and revitalization processes by architects, planners and community stakeholders in the region.

Mapping the scientific research on alternative momentum investing: a bibliometric analysis

PurposeThis study aims to recognize the current dynamics, prolific contributors and salient trends and propose future research directions in the area of alternative momentum investing.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses a blend of electronic database and forward reference searching to ensure the incorporation of all the significant studies. With the help of the Scopus database, the present study retrieves 122 research papers published from 1999 to 2020.FindingsThe results reveal that alternative momentum investing is an emerging area in the field of momentum investing. However, this area has witnessed an exponential growth in last ten years. The study also finds that North American, West European and East Asian countries dominate in total research publications. Through network citation analysis, the study identifies five major clusters: industrial momentum, earnings momentum, 52-week high momentum, time-series momentum and risk-managed momentum.Research limitations/implicationsThe present review will serve as a guide for financial researchers who intend to work on alternative momentum approaches. The study proposes several unexplored research themes in alternative momentum investing on which future studies can focus.Originality/valueThe study embellishes the existing literature on momentum investing by contributing the first bibliometric review on alternative momentum approaches.

Interdisciplinary Analysis of the Lehi Horse: Implications for Early Historic Horse Cultures of the North American West

Although recognized as one of the most significant cultural transformations in North America, the reintroduction of the horse to the continent after AD 1492 has been rarely addressed by archaeological science. A key contributing factor behind this limited study is the apparent absence of equine skeletal remains from early historic archaeological contexts. Here, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a horse skeleton recovered in Lehi, Utah, originally attributed to the Pleistocene. Reanalysis of stratigraphic context and radiocarbon dating indicates a historic age for this horse (cal AD 1681–1939), linking it with Ute or other Indigenous groups, whereas osteological features demonstrate its use for mounted horseback riding—perhaps with a nonframe saddle. DNA analysis indicates that the animal was a female domestic horse, which was likely cared for as part of a breeding herd despite outliving its usefulness in transport. Finally, sequentially sampled stable carbon, oxygen, and strontium isotope values from tooth enamel (δ13C, δ18O, and 87Sr/86Sr) suggest that the horse was raised locally. These results show the utility of archaeological science as applied to horse remains in understanding Indigenous horse pastoralism, whereas consideration of the broader archaeological record suggests a pattern of misidentification of horse bones from early historic contexts.