Real-time prediction of patient disposition and the impact of reporter confidence on mid-level triage accuracies: an observational study in Israel

AimThe emergency department (ED) is the first port-of-call for most patients receiving hospital care and as such acts as a gatekeeper to the wards, directing patient flow through the hospital. ED overcrowding is a well-researched field and negatively affects patient outcome, staff well-being and hospital reputation. An accurate, real-time model capable of predicting ED overcrowding has obvious merit in a world becoming increasingly computational, although the complicated dynamics of the department have hindered international efforts to design such a model. Triage nurses’ assessments have been shown to be accurate predictors of patient disposition and could, therefore, be useful input for overcrowding and patient flow models.MethodsIn this study, we assess the prediction capabilities of triage nurses in a level 1 urban hospital in central Israeli. ED settings included both acute and ambulatory wings. Nurses were asked to predict admission or discharge for each patient over a 3-month period as well as exact admission destination. Prediction confidence was used as an optimisation variable.ResultTriage nurses accurately predicted whether the patient would be admitted or discharged in 77% of patients in the acute wing, rising to 88% when their prediction certainty was high. Accuracies were higher still for patients in the ambulatory wing. In particular, negative predictive values for admission were highly accurate at 90%, irrespective of area or certainty levels.ConclusionNurses prediction of disposition should be considered for input for real-time ED models.

An Optimization Model to Address Overcrowding in Emergency Departments Using Patient Transfer

Overcrowding of emergency departments (EDs) is a problem that affected many hospitals especially during the response to emergency situations such as pandemics or disasters. Transferring nonemergency patients is one approach that can be utilized to address ED overcrowding. We propose a novel mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model that explicitly considers queueing effects to address overcrowding in a network of EDs, via a combination of two decisions: modifying service capacity to EDs and transferring patients between EDs. Computational testing is performed using a Design of Experiments to determine the sensitivity of the MINLP solutions to changes in the various input parameters. Additional computational testing examines the effect of ED size on the number of transfers occurring in the system, identifying an efficient frontier for the tradeoff between system cost (measured as a function of the service capacity and the number of patient transfers) and the systemwide average expected waiting time. Taken together, these results suggest that our optimization model can identify a range of efficient alternatives for healthcare systems designing a network of EDs across multiple hospitals.

Associations between emergency department crowding and perceptions of interpersonal care in patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome

BackgroundEmergency department (ED) crowding is associated with numerous healthcare issues, but little is known about its effect on psychosocial aspects of patient-provider interactions or interpersonal care. We examined whether ED crowding was associated with perceptions of interpersonal care in patients evaluated for acute coronary syndrome (ACS).MethodsPatients presenting to a quaternary academic medical centre ED in New York City for evaluation of suspected ACS were enrolled between November 2013 and December 2016. ED crowding was measured using the ED Work Index (EDWIN), which incorporates patient volume, triage category, physician staffing and bed availability. Patients completed the 18-item Interpersonal Processes of Care (IPC) survey, which assesses communication, patient-centred decision-making and interpersonal style. Regression analyses examined associations between EDWIN and IPC scores, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities and depression.ResultsAmong 933 included patients, 11% experienced ED overcrowding (EDWIN score >2) at admission, 11% experienced ED overcrowding throughout the ED stay and 30% reported suboptimal interpersonal care (defined as per-item IPC score <5). Higher admission EDWIN score was associated with modestly lower IPC score in both unadjusted (β=–1.70, 95% CI –3.15 to –0.24, p=0.02) and adjusted models (β = –1.77, 95% CI –3.31 to –0.24, p=0.02). EDWIN score averaged over the entire ED stay was not significantly associated with IPC score (unadjusted β=–1.30, 95% CI –3.19 to 0.59, p=0.18; adjusted β=–1.24, 95% CI –3.21 to 0.74, p=0.22).ConclusionIncreased crowding at the time of ED admission was associated with poorer perceptions of interpersonal care among patients with suspected ACS.

The Role of Telemedicine Services in Reducing Emergency Department Overload in Saudi Arabia

Background: ED overcrowding is described as one of the main issues in emergency departments (EDs) of any hospital. In Saudi Arabia, the ministry of health applied new telemedicine technology to serve patients by using the mobile application which include Sehha application and 937 medical call center. The main aim of this study is to determine the role of different telemedicine services in reducing non-urgent visits to EDs in Saudi Arabia. Methods: A cross-section study was conducted during August 2020 - May 2021 among 319 patients were using two telemedicine services in Saudi Arabia, including medical call center, and Sehha smart phone application. The primary endpoint of this study aims to determine the role of different telemedicine services in reducing non-urgent visits to EDs in Saudi Arabia. Results: This study analyzed the data from 319 patients who completed the survey provided by the Saudi Ministry of Health that concerning on information related to their health status, and ED visits. Among patients that had the intention to visit the ED (N=159), 53 of them did not go to EDs after using telemedicine services (p-value &lt; 0.01). Regarding medical call center and Sehha application, 9.6% and 24.4%, respectively of the patients used these telemedicine services had changed their mind concerning visiting ED after taking the medical advice (p-values &lt; 0.01).Conclusion: The implemented telemedicine services in Saudi Arabia, namely Sehha application and medical call center showed to be effective in reducing ED overload by providing medical advices to less- and non-urgent patients and deal with their minor medical issues.

How the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic changed the patterns of healthcare utilization by geriatric patients and the crowding: a call to action for effective solutions to the access block

The geriatric population constitutes a large slice of the population of Western countries and a class of fragile patients, with greater deaths due to COVID-19. The patterns of healthcare utilization change during pandemic disease outbreaks. Identifying the patterns of changes of this particular fragile subpopulation is important for future preparedness and response. Overcrowding in the emergency department (ED) can occur because of the volume of patients waiting to be seen, delays in patient assessment or treatment in the ED, or impediments to leaving the ED once the treatment has been completed. Overcrowding has become a serious and growing issue globally, which represents a serious impediment to healthcare utilization. To estimate the rate of ED visits attributable to the outbreak and guide the planning of strategies for managing ED access or after the outbreak of transmittable respiratory diseases. This observational study was based on a retrospective review of the epidemiological and clinical records of patients aged > 75 years who visited the Foundation IRCCS Policlinic San Matteo during the first wave of COVID-19 outbreak (February 21 to May 1, 2020; pandemic group). The analysis methods included estimation of the changes in the epidemiological and clinical data from the annual baseline data after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Outcome measures and analysis: Primary objective is the evaluation of ED admission rate change and ED overcrowding. Secondary objectives are the evaluation of modes of ED access by reason and triage code, access types, clinical outcomes (such as admission and mortality rates). During the pandemic, ED crowding increased dramatically, although the overall number of patients decreased, in the face of a percentage increase in those with high-acuity conditions, because of changes in patient management that have prolonged length of stay (LOS) and increased rates of access block. Overcrowding during the COVID-19 pandemic can be attributed to the Access Block. Access Block solutions are hence required to prevent a recurrence of crowding to any new viral wave or new epidemic in the future.

Semantic Representation of Patient Triage Data Collected in Emergency Departments

Emergency Department (ED) overcrowding is a major issue for the efficient management of patients. To this end, triage algorithms have been developed to support the task of patient prioritization. In this paper an ontology was designed to represent the knowledge about patient triage procedure in EDs.

Interventions and strategies involving primary healthcare professionals to manage emergency department overcrowding: a scoping review

ObjectivesTo conduct a scoping review to identify and summarise the existing literature on interventions involving primary healthcare professionals to manage emergency department (ED) overcrowding.DesignA scoping review.Data sourcesA comprehensive database search of Medline (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), Cochrane Library (Wiley) and CINAHL (EBSCO) databases was conducted (inception until January 2020) using peer-reviewed search strategies, complemented by a search of grey literature sources.Eligibility criteriaInterventions and strategies involving primary healthcare professionals (PHCPs: general practitioners (GPs), nurse practitioners (NPs) or nurses with expanded role) to manage ED overcrowding.MethodsWe engaged and collaborated, with 13 patient partners during the design and conduct stages of this review. We conducted this review using the JBI guidelines. Two reviewers independently selected studies and extracted data. We conducted descriptive analysis of the included studies (frequencies and percentages).ResultsFrom 23 947 records identified, we included 268 studies published between 1981 and 2020. The majority (58%) of studies were conducted in North America and were predominantly cohort studies (42%). The reported interventions were either ‘within ED’ (48%) interventions (eg, PHCP-led ED triage or fast track) or ‘outside ED’ interventions (52%) (eg, after-hours GP clinic and GP cooperatives). PHCPs involved in the interventions were: GP (32%), NP (26%), nurses with expanded role (16%) and combinations of the PHCPs (42%). The ‘within ED’ and ‘outside ED’ interventions reported outcomes on patient flow and ED utilisation, respectively.ConclusionsWe identified many interventions involving PHCPs that predominantly reported a positive impact on ED utilisation/patient flow metrics. Future research needs to focus on conducting well-designed randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and systematic reviews to evaluate the effectiveness of specific interventions involving PHCPs to critically appraise and summarise evidence on this topic.

Exploring overcrowding trends in an inner city emergence department in the UK before and during COVID-19 epidemic

Background The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated lockdowns have caused significant disruptions across society, including changes in the number of emergency department (ED) visits. This study aims to investigate the impact of three pre-COVID-19 interventions and of the COVID-19 UK-epidemic and the first UK national lockdown on overcrowding within University College London Hospital Emergency Department (UCLH ED). The three interventions: target the influx of patients at ED (A), reduce the pressure on in-patients’ beds (B) and improve ED processes to improve the flow of patents out from ED (C). Methods We collected overcrowding metrics (daily attendances, the proportion of people leaving within 4 h of arrival (four-hours target) and the reduction in overall waiting time) during 01/04/2017–31/05/2020. We then performed three different analyses, considering three different timeframes. The first analysis used data 01/04/2017–31/12–2019 to calculate changes over a period of 6 months before and after the start of interventions A-C. The second and third analyses focused on evaluating the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, comparing the first 10 months in 2020 and 2019, and of the first national lockdown (23/03/2020–31/05/2020). Results Pre-COVID-19 all interventions led to small reductions in waiting time (17%, p < 0.001 for A and C; an 9%, p = 0.322 for B) but also to a small decrease in the number of patients leaving within 4 h of arrival (6.6,7.4,6.2% respectively A-C,p < 0.001). In presence of the COVID-19 pandemic, attendance and waiting time were reduced (40% and 8%; p < 0.001), and the number of people leaving within 4 h of arrival was increased (6%,p < 0.001). During the first lockdown, there was 65% reduction in attendance, 22% reduction in waiting time and 8% increase in number of people leaving within 4 h of arrival (p < 0.001). Crucially, when the lockdown was lifted, there was an increase (6.5%,p < 0.001) in the percentage of people leaving within 4 h, together with a larger (12.5%,p < 0.001) decrease in waiting time. This occurred despite the increase of 49.6%(p < 0.001) in attendance after lockdown ended. Conclusions The mixed results pre-COVID-19 (significant improvements in waiting time with some interventions but not improvement in the four-hours target), may be due to indirect impacts of these interventions, where increasing pressure on one part of the ED system affected other parts. This underlines the need for multifaceted interventions and a system-wide approach to improve the pathway of flow through the ED system is necessary. During 2020 and in presence of the COVID-19 epidemic, a shift in public behaviour with anxiety over attending hospitals and higher use of virtual consultations, led to notable drop in UCLH ED attendance and consequential curbing of overcrowding. Importantly, once the lockdown was lifted, although there was an increase in arrivals at UCLH ED, overcrowding metrics were reduced. Thus, the combination of shifted public behaviour and the restructuring changes during COVID-19 epidemic, maybe be able to curb future ED overcrowding, but longer timeframe analysis is required to confirm this.

Prehospital triage of patients with acute cardiac complaints: study protocol of HART-c, a multicentre prospective study

IntroductionEmergency department (ED) overcrowding is a major healthcare problem associated with worse patient outcomes and increased costs. Attempts to reduce ED overcrowding of patients with cardiac complaints have so far focused on in-hospital triage and rapid risk stratification of patients with chest pain at the ED. The Hollands-Midden Acute Regional Triage—Cardiology (HART-c) study aimed to assess the amount of patients left at home in usual ambulance care as compared with the new prehospital triage method. This method combines paramedic assessment and expert cardiologist consultation using live monitoring, hospital data and real-time admission capacity.Methods and analysisPatients visited by the emergency medical services (EMS) for cardiac complaints are included. EMS consultation consists of medical history, physical examination and vital signs, and ECG measurements. All data are transferred to a newly developed platform for the triage cardiologist. Prehospital data, in-hospital medical records and real-time admission capacity are evaluated. Then a shared decision is made whether admission is necessary and, if so, which hospital is most appropriate. To evaluate safety, all patients left at home and their general practitioners (GPs) are contacted for 30-day adverse events.Ethics and disseminationThe study is approved by the LUMC’s Medical Ethics Committee. Patients are asked for consent for contacting their GPs. The main results of this trial will be disseminated in one paper.DiscussionThe HART-c study evaluates the efficacy and feasibility of a prehospital triage method that combines prehospital patient assessment and direct consultation of a cardiologist who has access to live-monitored data, hospital data and real-time hospital admission capacity. We expect this triage method to substantially reduce unnecessary ED visits.

Exploring overcrowding trends in an inner city emergence department in the UK before and during COVID-19 epidemic

BackgroundWe compared impact of three pre-COVID-19 interventions and of the COVID-19 UK-epidemic and the first UK national lockdown on overcrowding within University College London Hospital Emergency Department (UCLH ED). The three interventions: target the influx of patients at ED (A), reduce the pressure on in-patients’ beds (B) and improve ED processes to improve the flow of patents out from ED (C).MethodsWe analysed the change in overcrowding metrics (daily attendances, the proportion of people leaving within four hours of arrival (four-hours target) and the reduction in overall waiting time) across three analysis. The first analysis used data 01/04/2017-31/12-2019 to calculate changes over a period of six months before and after the start of interventions A-C. The second and third analyses focused on evaluating the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, comparing the first 10 months in 2020 and 2019, and of the first national lockdown (23/03/2020-31/05/2020).ResultsPre-COVID-19 all interventions led to small reductions in waiting time (17%, p<0.001 for A and C;9%, p=0.322 for B) but also to a small decrease in the number of patients leaving within four hours of arrival (6.6%,7.4%,6.2% respectively A-C,p<0.001).In presence of the COVID-19 pandemic, attendance and waiting time were reduced (40% and 8%;p<0.001), and the number of people leaving within four hours of arrival was increased (6%,p<0.001). During the first lockdown, there was 65% reduction in attendance, 22% reduction in waiting time and 8% increase in number of people leaving within 4 hours of arrival (p<0.001). Crucially, when the lockdown was lifted, there was an increase (6.5%,p<0.001) in the percentage of people leaving within four hours, together with a larger (12.5%,p<0.001) decrease in waiting time. This occurred despite the increase of 49.6%(p<0.001) in attendance after lockdown ended.ConclusionsThe mixed results pre-COVID-19 (significant improvements in waiting time with some interventions but not improvement in the four-hours target), may be due to a ‘spill-over effect’ where clogging up one part of the ED system affects other parts. Hence multifaceted interventions and a system-wide approach to improve the pathway of flow through the ED system is necessary.During 2020 and in presence of the COVID-19 epidemic, a shift in public behaviour with anxiety over attending hospitals and higher use of virtual consultations, led to notable drop in UCLH ED attendance and consequential curbing of overcrowding.Importantly, once the lockdown was lifted, although there was an increase in arrivals at UCLH ED, overcrowding metrics were reduced. Thus, the combination of shifted public behaviour and the restructuring changes during COVID-19 epidemic, maybe be able to curb future ED overcrowding, but longer timeframe analysis is required to confirm this.