6. Climate surprises

‘Climate surprises’ assesses the possibility that there are thresholds or tipping points in the climate system that may occur as we warm the planet. Scientists have been concerned about these tipping points over the last three decades. One can examine the way different parts of the climate system respond to climate change with four scenarios. These include linear but delayed response; muted or limited response; delayed and non-linear response; and threshold response. It is worth considering here the melting of the Greenland and/or Western Antarctic ice sheet; the slowing down of the North Atlantic deep ocean circulation; the potential massive release of methane from melting gas hydrates; and the possibility of the Amazon rainforest dieback.

Poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds synchronous with the deglacial rise in CO2

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds strongly influence deep ocean circulation and carbon storage1. While the westerlies are hypothesised to play a key role in regulating atmospheric CO2 over glacial-interglacial cycles2–4, past changes in their position and strength remain poorly constrained5–7. Here, we use a compilation of planktic foraminiferal δ18O from across the Southern Ocean and constraints from an ensemble of climate models to reconstruct changes in the westerlies over the last deglaciation. We find a 4.7° (2.9-6.9°, 95% confidence interval) equatorward shift and about a 25% weakening of the westerlies during the Last Glacial Maximum (about 20,000 years ago) relative to the mid-Holocene (about 6,000 years ago). Our reconstruction shows that the poleward shift in the westerlies over deglaciation closely mirrors the rise in atmospheric CO2. Experiments with a 0.25° resolution ocean-sea-ice-carbon model demonstrate that shifting the westerlies equatorward substantially reduces the overturning rate of the abyssal ocean, leading to a suppression of CO2 outgassing from the Southern Ocean. Our results establish a central role for the westerly winds in driving the deglacial CO2 rise, and suggest natural CO2 outgassing from the Southern Ocean is likely to increase as the westerlies shift poleward due to anthropogenic warming8–10.

The rise to dominance of lanternfishes (Teleostei: Myctophidae) in the oceanic ecosystems: a paleontological perspective

Lanternfishes currently represent one of the dominant groups of mesopelagic fishes in terms of abundance, biomass, and diversity. Their otolith record dominates pelagic sediments below 200 m in dredges, especially during the entire Neogene. Here we provide an analysis of their diversity and rise to dominance primarily based on their otolith record. The earliest unambiguous fossil myctophids are known based on otoliths from the late Paleocene and early Eocene. During their early evolutionary history, myctophids were likely not adapted to a high oceanic lifestyle but occurred over shelf and upper-slope regions, where they were locally abundant during the middle Eocene. A distinct upscaling in otolith size is observed in the early Oligocene, which also marks their earliest occurrence in bathyal sediments. We interpret this transition to be related to the change from a halothermal deep-ocean circulation to a thermohaline regime and the associated cooling of the deep ocean and rearrangement of nutrient and silica supply. The early Oligocene myctophid size acme shows a remarkable congruence with diatom abundance, the main food resource for the zooplankton and thus for myctophids and whales. The warmer late Oligocene to early middle Miocene period was characterized by an increase in disparity of myctophids but with a reduction in their otolith sizes. A second and persisting secular pulse in myctophid diversity (particularly within the genusDiaphus) and increase in size begins with the “biogenic bloom” in the late Miocene, paralleled with diatom abundance and mysticete gigantism.

Deep-sea panoramas: Progress and remaining challenges in late Miocene stratigraphy and climate

<p>During the late Miocene, meridional sea surface temperature gradients, deep ocean circulation patterns, and continental configurations evolved to a state similar to modern day. Deep-sea benthic foraminiferal stable oxygen (δ<sup>18</sup>O) and carbon (δ<sup>13</sup>C) isotope stratigraphy remains a fundamental tool for providing accurate chronologies and global correlations, both of which can be used to assess late Miocene climate dynamics. Until recently, late Miocene benthic δ<sup>18</sup>O and δ<sup>13</sup>C stratigraphies remained poorly constrained, due to relatively poor global high-resolution data coverage.</p><p>Here, I present ongoing work that uses high-resolution deep-sea foraminiferal stable isotope records to improve late Miocene (chrono)stratigraphy. Although challenges remain, the coverage of late Miocene benthic δ<sup>18</sup>O and δ<sup>13</sup>C stratigraphies has drastically improved in recent years, with high-resolution records now available across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The recovery of these deep-sea records, including the first astronomically tuned, deep-sea integrated magneto-chemostratigraphy, has also helped to improve the late Miocene geological timescale. Finally, I will briefly touch upon how our understanding of late Miocene climate evolution has improved, based on the high-resolution deep-sea archives that are now available.</p>