Experience in a Climate Simulator: Influence of Probability Function and Feedback on Decisions Against Climate Change

Research indicates that people continue to exhibit “wait-and-see” preferences toward climate change, despite constant attempts to raise awareness about its cataclysmic effects. Experiencing climatic catastrophes via simulation tools has been found to affect the perception of people regarding climate change and promote pro-environmental behaviors. However, not much is known about how experiential feedback and the probability of climate change in a simulation influence the decisions of people. We developed a web-based tool called Interactive Climate Change Simulator (ICCS) to study the impact of different probabilities of climate change and the availability of feedback on the monetary actions (adaptation or mitigation) taken by individuals. A total of 160 participants from India voluntarily played ICCS across four between-subject conditions (N = 40 in each condition). The conditions differed based on the probability of climate change (low or high) and availability of feedback (absent or present). Participants made mitigation and adaptation decisions in ICCS over multiple years and faced monetary consequences of their decisions. There was a significant increase in mitigation actions against climate change when the feedback was present compared to when it was absent. The mitigation and adaptation investments against climate change were not significantly affected by the probability of climate change. The interaction between probability of climate consequences and availability of feedback was significant: In the presence of feedback, the high probability of climate change resulted in higher mitigation and adaptation investments against climate change. Overall, the experience gained in the ICCS tool helped alleviate peoples' “wait-and-see” preferences and increased the monetary investments to counter climate change. Simulation tools like ICCS have the potential to increase people's understanding of climatic disasters and can act as a useful aid for educationalists and policymakers.

Effect of climate change on burley tobacco crop calendars

In Colombia, tobacco cultivation is an important generator of employment and income for farmers; however it faces different problems as low crop yield compared to other countries; specifically, in the north of the country, where the climatic conditions are less favorable and the productivity is lower than other areas of the country due to low mechanization. In order to improve the tobacco yield per hectare in the municipality of Ovejas, this research aimed to determine the water requirements of burley tobacco cultivation under conditions of climate variability to obtain optimal information for crop calendars. Water requirements of burley tobacco were determined using the crop water requirement equation. This calculation ethod was programmed in Python to automate the generation of maps, developing a tool that allowed a detailed analysis per unit area per week. Based on the results obtained, weeks 17 and 18 of the year (last week of April and first week of May, respectively) are proposed as optimal planting times, since the cycles of crops planted in this period showed precipitation surplus in the initial phase of cultivation, which is a critical phase for their development. Climate change simulation showed that crops must be continuously monitored in order to adapt to new weather conditions.

Functional responses of recently emerged seedlings of an endemic Mexican oak (Quercus eduardii) under climate change conditions

<p><strong>Background: </strong>Climate change will increase temperature and reduce rainfall across temperate forests of Mexico. This can alter tree establishment dynamics within forest and in neighbouring man-made clearings.</p><p><strong>Hypotheses:</strong> Climate change will reduce emergence and survival of tree seedlings, and surviving plants will display functional responses matching with these changes. These effects should be more noticeable in clearings due to the lack of canopy cover.</p><p><strong>Studied species</strong>: <em>Quercus eduardii</em> (Fagaceae, section <em>Lobatae</em>) an oak species endemic to Mexico.</p><p><strong>Study site and years of study</strong>: Tree growing season 2015-2016 (rainy season) in a mature oak forest and a neighbouring clearing in Sierra de Álvarez, state of San Luis Potosí.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In both habitats, we established control plots (under current climatic conditions) and climate change simulation plots (increased temperature and reduced rainfall). At the beginning of the growing season, we sowed acorns of <em>Q. eduardii</em> in these plots and monitored the emergence, survival and growth of seedlings. At the end of the growing season, we assessed functional responses on surviving seedlings.</p><p><strong>Results:</strong> Seedling emergence and survival were lower in climate change plots from both habitats. However, differences in survival between climate treatments were larger within the forest. Seedlings from climate change plots displayed functional responses indicating higher levels of thermal and water stress.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study indicates that climate change will constrain tree recruitment in Mexican oak forests. However, contrary to our expectations, it seems that these effects will be higher within forests than in man-made clearings.</p>

Grim FATE: Learning About Systems Thinking in an In-Depth Climate Change Simulation

Background. Simulations of complex systems have a long history of use for the study and promotion of systems thinking, yet more can be done in identifying games that promote development of systems thinking. Aim. This study is an exploration of the hypothesis that FATE OF THE WORLD, a challenging and complex climate change simulation, can promote systems thinking about climate change. Questions. This article analyzes players’ engagement with FATE OF THE WORLD using three key questions: 1. In what ways does the game support thinking about climate change as a complex system? 2. Does the game correspond to players’ a priori model of climate change? 3. How do players relate to FATE as an artifact they embrace, critique, and tinker with? Method. 33 participants were matched into control and test groups, and experimental participants were assigned to play a full game scenario of FATE OF THE WORLD. Experimental and control groups were compared using pre-and-post intervention concept maps. Post interviews were conducted with the test group. Results.Concept maps revealed statistically significant differences between the control and test groups. Interviews revealed diversity in learning outcomes and the ways in which acceptance of the game’s model of climate change influenced learning. Conclusions. FATE serves as proof-of-concept for the power of complex simulations to promote systems thinking as well as in-depth reflection on key social challenges. However, simulations like FATE are unlikely to serve well as stand-alone educational tools, which highlights the importance of effective teaching to accompany the game.

Irrigation as an adaptive strategy to climate change: an economic perspective on Brazilian agriculture

This paper analyzes the potential effects of climate change on Brazilian agriculture by considering irrigation as an adaptive strategy. Investigations were performed to determine how climatic variability influences irrigation and whether this adaptive measure actually reduces producers' vulnerability to climate change. We used a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching to account for the heterogeneity in the decision of whether to use adaptive measures. We compared the expected land values under the actual and counterfactual cases of farm households that either adapt or do not adapt to climate change. Simulation results show that irrigation can be an effective tool for counteracting the harmful effects of climate change. The income of farmers tends to increase on lands where irrigation technologies are practiced. These conclusions confirm the need to invest in adaptation strategies to prepare Brazil for coping with the adverse effects of global climate change.