ICESat-2 Applications for Investigating Emerging Volcanoes

Submarine volcanism in shallow waters (<100 m), particularly in remote settings, is difficult to monitor quantitatively and, in the rare formation of islands, it is challenging to understand the rapid-paced erosion. However, these newly erupted volcanic islands become observable to airborne and/or satellite remote sensing instruments. NASA’s ICESat-2 satellite laser altimeter, combined with visible imagery (optical and microwave), provide a novel method of evaluating the elevation characteristics of newly emerged volcanoes and their subaerial eruption products. Niijima Fukutoku-Okanoba (NFO) is a submarine volcano 1300 km south of Tokyo (Ogasawara Archipelago of Japan) that periodically breaches the ocean surface to create new islands that are subsequently eroded. The recent eruption in August 2021 is a rare opportunity to investigate this island evolution using high-resolution satellite datasets with geodetic-quality ICESat-2 altimetry. Lansdat-8 and Planet imagery provide a qualitative analysis of the exposed volcanic deposits, while ICESat-2 products provide elevation profiles necessary to quantify the physical surface structures. This investigation determines an innovative application for ICESat-2 data in evaluating newly emerged islands and how the combination of satellite remote sensing (visible and lidar) to investigate these short-lived volcanic features can improve our understanding of the volcanic island system in ways not previously possible.

Repeated patterns in the evolution of size in island plants

<p>For reasons not fully understood, animals often evolve predictably on islands. For example, radiations of large, flightless birds are a common element of many island biotas. However, our understanding of how plants evolve on islands is comparatively poor. Further, an investigation into the evolution of island plants could help resolve unanswered questions about island animals. This thesis investigates insular size changes in a range of plant functional traits. First (Chapter 2), I explored size changes in 9 species of vines that have colonized islands from the New Zealand and Australian mainland. I asked whether leaf–stem allometry prohibits leaves and stems from evolving independently from one another. Island populations consistently produced larger leaves than did mainland populations. Moreover, changes in leaf size were not associated with concomitant changes in stem size, suggesting that trait allometry does not govern trait evolution on islands. Next (Chapter 3), I asked whether plants obey the infamous island rule, a putative trend in island evolution wherein small animals become large on islands and large animals become small. I demonstrate that plant stature and leaf area obey the island rule, and seed size does not. My findings illustrate that the island rule is more pervasive than previously considered, but that support for its predictions vary among plant functional traits. Third (Chapter 4), I demonstrate that the island rule results from evolutionary drift along bounded trait domains. The island rule has long been hypothesized to result from a suite of selective pressures. Applying my model to island plants, I show that evolutionary drift is the most parsimonious explanation for the island rule pattern. Finally (Chapter 5), to explore insular patterns in leaf size evolution, I conducted a large-scale, macroevolutionary analysis of leaf size on 98 of New Zealand’s offshore islands. Leaf gigantism was emblematic of island populations, and was most prominent in taxa with variable leaf morphologies on the mainland. Further, leaf gigantism was greatest in populations inhabiting old, distant islands, suggesting that time since divergence is a direct predictor of morphological differentiation between mainland and island populations. Overall, this thesis reveals novel patterns, and helps disentangle the distinct roles of natural selection and drift, in the evolution of plant form and function on islands. Finally, this thesis illustrates how investigating the changes in plant traits can help identify the evolutionary mechanisms operating on islands.</p>

Repeated patterns in the evolution of size in island plants

<p>For reasons not fully understood, animals often evolve predictably on islands. For example, radiations of large, flightless birds are a common element of many island biotas. However, our understanding of how plants evolve on islands is comparatively poor. Further, an investigation into the evolution of island plants could help resolve unanswered questions about island animals. This thesis investigates insular size changes in a range of plant functional traits. First (Chapter 2), I explored size changes in 9 species of vines that have colonized islands from the New Zealand and Australian mainland. I asked whether leaf–stem allometry prohibits leaves and stems from evolving independently from one another. Island populations consistently produced larger leaves than did mainland populations. Moreover, changes in leaf size were not associated with concomitant changes in stem size, suggesting that trait allometry does not govern trait evolution on islands. Next (Chapter 3), I asked whether plants obey the infamous island rule, a putative trend in island evolution wherein small animals become large on islands and large animals become small. I demonstrate that plant stature and leaf area obey the island rule, and seed size does not. My findings illustrate that the island rule is more pervasive than previously considered, but that support for its predictions vary among plant functional traits. Third (Chapter 4), I demonstrate that the island rule results from evolutionary drift along bounded trait domains. The island rule has long been hypothesized to result from a suite of selective pressures. Applying my model to island plants, I show that evolutionary drift is the most parsimonious explanation for the island rule pattern. Finally (Chapter 5), to explore insular patterns in leaf size evolution, I conducted a large-scale, macroevolutionary analysis of leaf size on 98 of New Zealand’s offshore islands. Leaf gigantism was emblematic of island populations, and was most prominent in taxa with variable leaf morphologies on the mainland. Further, leaf gigantism was greatest in populations inhabiting old, distant islands, suggesting that time since divergence is a direct predictor of morphological differentiation between mainland and island populations. Overall, this thesis reveals novel patterns, and helps disentangle the distinct roles of natural selection and drift, in the evolution of plant form and function on islands. Finally, this thesis illustrates how investigating the changes in plant traits can help identify the evolutionary mechanisms operating on islands.</p>

An Integrated, Probabilistic Modeling Approach to Assess the Evolution of Barrier-Island Systems Over the Twenty-First Century

Barrier-island systems, spanning ∼7% of the world’s coastlines, are of great importance to society because not only they provide attractive, liveable space for coastal communities but also act as the first line of defense from coastal storms. As many of these unique coastal systems are affected by both oceanic and terrestrial processes, it is necessary to consider the holistic behavior of applicable terrestrial and coastal processes when investigating their evolution under plausible future scenarios for climate change, population growth and human activities. Such holistic assessments, also accounting for uncertainties, can readily be achieved via reduced-complexity modeling techniques, owing to their much faster simulation times compared to sophisticated process-based models. Here, we develop and demonstrate a novel probabilistic modeling framework to obtain stochastic projections of barrier-island evolution over the twenty-first century while accounting for relevant oceanic and terrestrial processes under climate change impacts and anthropogenic activities. The model is here demonstrated at the Chandeleur islands (Louisiana, United States) under the four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) with results indicating that there are significant uncertainties in projected end-century barrier-island migration distance and available barrier freeboard under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5. The range of uncertainties in these projections underscores the value of stochastic projections in supporting the development of effective adaptation strategies for these fragile coastal systems.

A survey of storm-induced seaward-transport features observed during the 2019 and 2020 hurricane seasons

Hurricanes are known to play a critical role in reshaping coastlines, particularly on the open ocean coast in cases of overwash, but storm induced seaward-directed flow and responses are often ignored or un-documented. Subaerial evidence for seaward sediment transport (outwash, return-flow) increases our understanding of the impact hurricanes have on coastal and barrier island evolution. Towards this goal we catalog all available National Geodetic Survey Emergency Response Imagery (ERI), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) collection of post-hurricane aerial imagery on the U.S East Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts, for visible washout and return flow features. The most recent examples are from the North Core Banks, North Carolina, after Hurricane Dorian (2019), the Carolina coasts after Hurricane Isaias (2020), the Isles Dernieres, Louisiana, after Hurricane Zeta (2020), and the southwest coast of Louisiana, after Hurricanes Laura and Delta (2020); these include erosive scours and channels but also depositional deltas and fans on the shoreface and nearshore. Over the nearly 200 km of coastline analyzed, hundreds of seaward-flow features were identified; the density exceeds 20 per km in some areas. Individual features measure between 5 m and 500 m in both the along- and cross-shore dimensions. The extensive occurrence of these storm-induced return-flow and outwash morphologic features demonstrates that their sediment transport role may be more influential than previously thought. Based on these observations, we advocate for their inclusion in coastal change hazards classification schemes and coastal evolution morphodynamic models and propose an adoption of direction-explicit terms to use when describing return- and seaward-flow features to reduce redundant jargon and distinguish them from more frequently documented landward-flow features.

Testing for heterogeneous rates of discrete character evolution on phylogenies

Many hypotheses in the field of phylogenetic comparative biology involve specific changes in the rate or process of trait evolution. We present a method designed to test whether the rate of evolution of a discrete character has changed in one or more clades, lineages, or time periods. This method differs from other related approaches (such as the 'covarion' model) in that the 'regimes' in which the rate or process is postulated to have changed are specified a priori by the user, rather than inferred from the data. Similarly, it differs from methods designed to model a correlation between two binary traits in that the regimes mapped onto the tree are fixed. We apply our method to investigate the rate of dewlap color and/or caudal vertebra number evolution in Caribbean and mainland clades of the diverse lizard genus Anolis. We find little evidence to support any difference between mainland and island evolution in either character. We also examine the statistical properties of the method more generally and show that it has acceptable type I error, parameter estimation, and power. Finally, we discuss the relationship of our method to existing models of heterogeneity in the rate of discrete character evolution on phylogenies.

Body size and shape in insular environments and applications of the island rule in biological anthropology

The discovery of small-bodied hominin fossils in 2004 on the island of Flores, Indonesia, unearthed a large debate within biological anthropology. This debate has exemplified that there are questions and research areas that biological anthropologists do not understand about island evolution. To improve understanding on the causes and products of evolution within island areas for biological anthropologists, this dissertation addresses three overarching research areas relevant to the biological anthropology community. The first is an analysis of how primate body sizes vary on islands, with interpretations that are anchored in the evolutionary history of body sizes of primates. Primates that initially evolved body sizes to survive within a frugivorous niche, with elongated life spans to improve survival in unpredictable environments, have body sizes distributed among islands in relation to the presence of absence of these pressures. Smaller islands contain more large, bodied primates overall, whereas larger islands contain more small-bodied ones. Second, an analysis of island fox body size and shape indicates that island foxes have reduced body sizes and divergent skeletal traits compared to mainland, closely related counterparts. Distinct body proportions are likely due to selection because allometric scaling of limb lengths to body mass are divergent for the island fox. Further, the island fox is not a scaled down version of the mainland fox, with limbs decreasing in size at a faster rate compared to the mainland. Last, an investigation on the diversity of two human populations in the Baja California peninsula demonstrates that Amerindians who migrated to and survived in these regions were impacted by ecogeographic pressures in different degrees, likely related to access to resources. Heat-adapted skeletal traits are apparent in both human populations who inhabited this hot desert, but body size is distinct for the two groups. Body size is smaller for individuals with less access to marine resources and increased susceptibility to periods of drought and starvation. Body size is larger for humans with convenient access to oceanic and terrestrial resources. These studies demonstrate that primates, omnivores, and humans are not immune to the effects of insularity as has been suggested. Rather, interpreting body size and shape alterations requires contextualizing the organism with their evolutionary histories and subsequent interactions within the island areas. Body size alterations are the result of shifting selective pressures from competing with other community members to competing with other individuals within a population over finite resources. As such, body shape can also be divergent compared to closely related mainland counterparts due to adaptation to local ecogeographic pressures. Skeletal traits of organisms need to be interpreted in relation to their migratory journeys and adaptation to local ecogeographic pressures within the island. For humans, contextualizing these variables with cultural and behavioral characteristics is imperative to understand a body size response within a sociocultural omnivorous niche.

Multi-decadal coastal evolution of a North Atlantic shelf-edge vegetated sand island – Sable Island, Canada

Impacts from a changing climate, in particular sea-level rise, will be most acutely felt on small oceanic islands. A common configuration of mid-latitude islands is the sandy barrier island. Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada is a vegetated sand island near the shelf edge, 160 km from the nearest point of land, that is morphologically similar to a barrier island. This study uses 60 years of airphoto records to analyse changes in coastline position through digitized shore and vegetation (foredune proxy) lines. Rates of coastal movement are analysed to model the future (2039) coastal configuration. The analyses suggest that the majority of the coastline on Sable Island is in retreat, with net retreat on the south side of the island only partially offset by modest net advance on the north side. The different morphologies of the beach-dune systems of South and North Beach, driven by incident wind and waves, yield these different coastline responses. Projected loss of 10 ha by 2039 of the climax heath vegetative community to shoreline retreat suggests a trend toward island instability due to coastline migration. Island-wide dataset trends show support for two different but complementary hypotheses about whole-island evolution: either the island is mobile via bank migration driving southern coastline changes and experiencing sediment transport toward the east, or the island is generally immobile and losing subaerial sediments (and thus shrinking) likely due to ongoing (and accelerating) sea-level rise.