Avaliação de contribuição do reservatório de Movene na bacia hidrográfica do rio Umbeluzi em Moçambique

A gestão dos recursos hídricos na bacia hidrográfica do rio Umbeluzi é uma questão fundamental devido ao agravamento de escassez de água nos centros urbanos e na agricultura que pode pôr em causa os valores socioculturais, ecológicos e econômicos. Torna-se ainda mais importante o fato de ser uma bacia internacional, cuja demanda por água tem aumentando em função de expansão agrícola e crescimento populacional. O estudo avaliou a contribuição do novo reservatório de Movene e novas regras de prioridade na alocação de água superficial para atender às diferentes necessidades usando o modelo WaterEvaluation and Planning System – WEAP. O modelo foi validado no período 2005-2011 apresentando o NSE de 0,69 e Bias de 5,2% no volume do reservatório e 2005 com NSE de 6,7 e Bias de 6,0% na vazão. Os resultados mostram menor contribuição do reservatório de Movene, a demanda não atendida no abastecimento doméstico passou de 33,6 hm3 para 10,1 hm3 no cenário de Referência e de 57,3 hm3 para 19,9 hm3 no cenário Maior Crescimento em 2040. Considerando o mesmo ano, a demanda não atendida na agricultura caiu de 12,9 hm3 para 4,1 hm3 e de 22 hm3 para 10,3 hm3 nos cenários de Referência e de Maior Crescimento. No sector industrial apenas o cenário Maior Crescimento apresenta demanda não atendida, tendo saído de 7,4 hm3 para 0,3 hm3 em 2040. Esses resultados enfatizam a necessidade de implementação de estratégias de gestão de lado de demanda para minimizar os impactos de escassez de água. Contribution assessment of the Movene reservoir in the Umbeluzi river basin in Mozambique A B S T R A C TThe management of water resources in the Umbeluzi River basin is an important issue due to the worsening of water scarcity in urban centres and in agriculture, which can jeopardize socio-cultural, ecological and economic values. Even more important is the fact that it is an international basin, whose demand for water has been increasing due to agricultural expansion and population growth. The study evaluated the contribution of the new Movene reservoir and new rules of priority in the allocation of surface water to meet different needs usingWater Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. WEAP modelwas validated from 2005 to 2011 with NSE of 0.69 and Bias of 5.2% in the volume of the reservoir and 2005 with an NSE of 6.7 and Bias of 6.0% in the flow. The results demonstrate a lower contribution of the Movene reservoir, the unmet demand in domestic supply went from 33.6 hm3to 10.1 hm3 in the Reference scenario and from 57.3 hm3to 19.9 hm3 in the Reference scenario Higher Growth scenario in 2040. Considering the same year, unmet demand in agriculture fell from 12.9 hm3to 4.1 hm3 and from 22 hm3to 10.3 hm3 in the Reference and Higher Growth scenarios. In the industrial sector, only the Highest Growth scenario has unmet demand, having gone from 7.4 hm3to 0.3 hm3 in 2040. These results emphasize the need to implement demand-side management strategies to minimize the impacts of water scarcity.Keywords: water resources, water demand, Umbeluziriver, WEAP model.

Degrowing circular cities: emerging socio-technical experiments for Transition

The circular economy applied to the urban context is linked to sustainability objectives focused on environmental performances overlooking socio-political implications, in order to achieve a circular balance within the neoliberal paradigm of business-nature-society in a continuous growth scenario. This paper discusses this criticality, articulating a counter perspective based on the debate of degrowth, circularity and technology through the analysis of three cases of socio-technical assemblages: Transition Towns; Repair Cafes; Community Gardens. The research individuates the effectiveness of urban practices in which the circularity is implemented beyond purely economic interactions or eco-efficiency parameters, defining the potentialities of a degrowing circular city based on inclusiveness, social justice and reciprocity.

Energy Security and Scenario Analysis of Province One of Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal

This paper presents the current energy security status of the Province One of Federal Democratic Republic Nepal using numerous indicators. In addition to that, with the development of five economic growth scenarios i.e. Normal growth (NOR) (5.80%), Low growth (LOW) (4.20%), High growth (HIG) (6.80%), Accelerated growth (ACC) (8.50%), and Intervention scenario (INT) on Normal growth scenario (NOR), the future energy mix and energy security indicators for the year 2040 are also calculated. The thesis also gives an overview of the variation/progress of the different indicators during the considered period of study (2017-2040). On the basis of compilation of data published by Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS) and use of model developed in Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP), the study shows the increase in demand of the final energy consumption of province in Normal growth scenario to 101.8 million GJ at 2040 from 80.2 million GJ at 2017, whereby residential sector being the largest energy consuming sector with share of 68% in the total energy mix. However, the energy consumption increases to only 86.8 million GJ at the end year in the Intervention scenario. Similarly, the electricity consumption/demand increases by 120% and 390% in the normal and intervention economic growth scenario respectively. The study also shows that the, energy intensity in the intervention scenario is brought down to 4.44 GJ/USD1000 compared to that of 15 GJ/USD1000 in the base year. Also, the electricity consumption per capita is increased to 574 kWh from 116 kWh in the base year in INT scenario. Moreover, the GHG emission in the normal growth scenario at the end year will be 592.8 kg/Capita i.e. 59.5% increase from the base year. However, with the intervention scenario adopted, the GHG emission can be limited to only 385.2 kg/Capita in the end year, which is 8% increase from the base year value of 371.8 kg/Capita. However, these values are only achieved if the provincial government helps implementing federal government's plan of promoting the renewable energy systems and technologies instead of traditional fuel woods and fossil fuels system.

Activation Conditions of Sprinkler Head Considering Fire Growth Scenario

The aim of this study is to investigate the gas temperature and velocity during sprinkler activation considering the fire growth scenario based on the thermal response model of the sprinkler. The fire source is assumed to have time square fire growth scenarios with a maximum heat release rate of 3 MW. Eight types of standard and fast-response sprinkler heads with an operating temperature range of 65–105 ℃ and a response time index range of 25–171 m^1/2s^1/2 were adopted. The temperature difference between the gas stream and the sensing element of the sprinkler head decreased as the fire growth slowed down, and the RTI value decreased. The overall gas temperature and velocity conditions predicted using the FDS model at sprinkler activation were in reasonable agreement with those of standard test conditions of the sprinkler head response. However, the sprinkler head could be activated at lower limits of gas temperature and velocity under the current test conditions for a slowly growing fire scenario.

An Appraisal of Agribusiness Industries in India and their Market Growth Scenario

The present study aims at analysis of agribusiness industries’ market growth rate and the past and future demand of these industries’ products. The analysis was focused on dairy, jute, cotton, tea, coffee industries. The study showed that all the industries considered for the study exhibited positive growth rate and market demand increased. For dairy industry, highest market growth rate (7.7 percent) was found in sub-period 2000-01 and 2005-06. The highest market growth rate was 3.5, 7.1, 8.1 and 7.4 percent for jute, cotton, tea, and coffee industries, respectively.

Optimal Budget Allocations for Protected Area Acquisition To Store Carbon in a Local Community Under Economic Growth Uncertainty

We analyze optimal budget allocations to acquire protected areas for carbon storage while balancing risk and return from protection under economic growth uncertainty in a local community. Our study is the first to explore how risk of uncertain economic growth affects cost of protected area acquisition using real estate values at the parcel level, enabling us to estimate the site-specific opportunity cost of carbon storage. The Pareto optimal trade-off frontier between the expected carbon storage benefit and its variance provides a continuum of risk-return combinations. The pattern of the trade-off relationship implies that risk mitigation is less costly in terms of foregone expected benefit when risk is higher than when it is lower. Our results also find that the difference in cluster-specific budget allocations between the strong economic growth scenario and the weak economic growth scenario subsequently decreases between the point of expected benefit maximization and the point of variance minimization. Our findings of optimal hectares of land for protected area acquisition for carbon storage and corresponding benefits and costs serve as an empirically informed knowledge base to help a local community prioritize acquisition of potential protected areas for carbon storage under economic growth uncertainty.

TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LAND USE IN REGIONS: CONCEPTUAL PROVISIONS, PROBLEMS AND A METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO ASSESSMENT

The relevance and timeliness of ensuring the territorial development of land use at the regional level is deter-mined. The aim of the study is to develop conceptual provisions and a methodological approach to determining and assessing the territorial development of land use in regions. To achieve this goal, the following tasks are solved: identification of problems in the system for ensuring the territorial development of land use in the regions; the formation of conceptual provisions for determining the territorial development of regional lands; development of a methodological approach to assessing the level of territorial development of land use. The problematic aspects are identified and a definition of the concept of «territorial development of land use in the region» is proposed. The directions of the development and implementation of a methodological approach to assessing the territorial development of land use in the regions are described. As a result of the study, an integral indicator of the territorial development of land use in the region was determined, the value of which indicates the need to change its trends by taking measures and developing scientifically sound recommendations for ensuring the territorial development of land use for the transition from a moderate scenario to a growth scenario. Keywords: land use, territorial development of regions, conceptual provisions, methodological approach, as-sessment.

Modelling land use/cover change scenarios in a transboundary catchment

<p>Changes in land use/cover are among the most important anthropogenic transformation on the physical environment affecting proper functioning of the earth system. Hitherto, land characterization has often been studied using archived satellite data products to understandd trends in space and time. However, due to future uncertainties in land use change in developing countries and the associated impacts on the physical environment, there is need to model these changes at a local scale. A modelling framework to simulate empirically quantified relations between land use and its driving factors was used in the Sio-Malaba-Malakisi catchment between Kenya and Uganda. Changes for the catchment were simulated for a period of 30 years (2017 – 2047) using model parameters that define location characteristics, spatial policies, area restrictions, land use demand and conversion elasticity settings. Elevation, slope, population density, soil organic carbon, soil CEC and precipitation were potential factors selected to evaluate the suitability of devoting a grid cell to a land use type using a stepwise regression model. The scenarios evaluated include first growth, slow growth and an urbanization scenario. The high ROC value in all statistical tests (>0.72) indicated that the spatial distribution of some land use types in the basin could be explained by the selected driving variables. In a fast growth scenario (under policy restriction), areas under open soil and shrubland would be converted to cropland when demand for cash crop goes up in the region. Areas under open trees and marshland outside protected zones, would be converted to agricultural land while barren land with rock outcrops would remain largely unchanged over the period. In a slow growth scenario, expansion of the area under cropland would follow historical trend at 1.25% growth per annum. Marshland areas unsuitable for agricultural expansion are projected to remain the same. In an urbanization scenario, built-up areas would increase steadily at >1% per annum especially in areas earmarked for infrastructural development. In all the scenarios explored, topography, precipitation, soil characteristics and population density were identified as the key drivers of land use change. Results of this study would enhance the understanding of the complexities in projecting future land cover changes and provide baseline data for supporting ongoing soil and land management programs in a data scarce area.</p><p><strong>Key words:</strong> Land use change; CLUE-S model; Scenario analysis; Sio-Malaba-Malakisi catchment; Transboundary basin</p>