Antimullerian Hormone as a Serum Biomarker for Risk of Chemotherapy-Induced Amenorrhea

Antimullerian hormone (AMH) is a promising biomarker for ovarian reserve. In this study, we assessed AMH before and 1 year after initiation of adjuvant chemotherapy on National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP)/NRG Oncology B-47 in female participants aged 42 years and younger (median age = 39 years). At baseline, median AMH was 1.2 ng/mL; 13 (4.7%) values were less than 0.1 ng/mL (the threshold for detectable levels, in the perimenopause and menopause range), and 57 values (20.6%) were less than 0.5 ng/mL. At 1 year, 215 (77.6%) were less than 0.1 ng/mL, and 264 (95.3%) were less than 0.5 ng/mL. Postchemotherapy menses were reported by 46.2% of participants. Multivariable logistic regression found that the odds of having postchemotherapy menses increased with younger age, higher body mass index, and higher prechemotherapy AMH, but not by trastuzumab administration or by the choice of chemotherapy (doxorubicin-cyclophosphamide followed by paclitaxel vs docetaxel-cyclophosphamide). We conclude that higher prechemotherapy AMH predicts a lower risk of chemotherapy-induced amenorrhea and that AMH 1 year after chemotherapy initiation is not informative in this setting because it is likely to be very low.

Inference on quantile residual life for length-biased survival data

Length biased data occurs when a prevalent sampling is used to recruit subject into a study that investigates the time from an initial event to a terminal event. Such data are usually left-truncated and right-censored. While there have been accurate and efficient methods to estimate the survival function, not much work have been done regarding estimation of residual life time distribution or the summary parameters such as the median and quantiles of the residual life. In this paper we propose two ways to estimate the quantiles of the residual life time at fixed time points accounting for the length biased and censored na- ture of the data. We provide the asymptotic properties of these estimators and investigate them through simulation studies. Considering that the variance of these estimators require density estimation, we suggest an alternate approach to obtain the confidence intervals for the residual function. We apply these methods to a breast cancer dataset from National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP).

Evaluating Treatment Tolerability in Cancer Clinical Trials Using the Toxicity Index

Background The National Cancer Institute Moonshot research initiative calls for improvements in the analysis and reporting of treatment toxicity to advise key stakeholders on treatment tolerability and inform regulatory and clinical decision making. This study illustrates alternative approaches to toxicity evaluation using the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project R-04 clinical trial as an example. Methods National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project R-04 was a neoadjuvant chemoradiation trial in stage II–III rectal cancer patients. A 2 x 2 factorial design was used to evaluate whether the addition of oxaliplatin (Oxa) to 5-fluorouracil (5FU) or capecitabine (Cape) with radiation therapy improved local-regional tumor control. The toxicity index (TI), which accounts for the frequency and severity of toxicities, was compared across treatments using multivariable probabilistic index models, where Pr A < B indicates the probability that higher values of TI were observed for A when compared with B. Baseline age, sex, performance status, body mass index, surgery type, and stage were evaluated as independent risk factors. Results A total of 4560 toxicities from 1558 patients were analyzed. Results from adjusted probabilistic index models indicate that oxaliplatin-containing regimens had statistically significant (P < .001) probability (Pr) for higher TI compared with regimens without oxaliplatin (Pr 5FU < 5FU + Oxa = 0.619, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.560 to 0.674; Pr 5FU < Cape + Oxa = 0.627, 95% CI = 0.568 to 0.682; Pr Cape < 5FU + Oxa = 0.587, 95% 0.527 to 0.644; and Pr Cape < Cape + Oxa = 0.596, 95% 0.536 to 0.653). When compared with other existing toxicity analysis methods, TI provided greater power to detect differences between treatments. Conclusions This article uses standard data collected in a cancer clinical trial to introduce descriptive and analytic methods that account for the additional burden of multiple toxicities. These methods may provide a more accurate description of a patient’s treatment experience that could lead to individualized dosing for better toxicity control. Future research will evaluate the generalizability of these findings in trials with similar drugs.

Estimating the Risks and Benefits of Tamoxifen Chemoprevention for Breast Cancer in Brazil

Background According to the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP-P1), tamoxifen can prevent 49% of invasive breast cancers in patients who have a five-year risk of 1.67% or more. Because tamoxifen is associated with side effects (endometrial cancer and stroke), it is necessary to weight the risks and benefits of using tamoxifen for prevention of breast cancer. The aim of this paper is to calculate a risk-benefit index based on the Brazilian population to assess the feasibility of Tamoxifen as a chemopreventive agent. Results Results showed that with increasing age, the greater the five-year risk of breast cancer would have to be for a positive risk-benefit index. This shows that more risk exists in older women with the use of tamoxifen, precisely because of the values ​​of incidence and mortality of the assessed diseases that increase with age in the population. Conclusion This study presents a methodology to determine the benefits and risks associated with chemoprevention with tamoxifen in the Brazilian population. Keywords: Breast Neoplasms, Tamoxifen, Chemoprevention

Prognostic Impact of the Combination of Recurrence Score and Quantitative Estrogen Receptor Expression (ESR1) on Predicting Late Distant Recurrence Risk in Estrogen Receptor–Positive Breast Cancer After 5 Years of Tamoxifen: Results From NRG Oncology/National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project B-28 and B-14

Purpose We determined the utility of the 21-Gene Recurrence Score (RS) in predicting late (> 5 years) distant recurrence (LDR) in stage I and II breast cancer within high and low-ESR1–expressing groups. Patients and Methods RS was assessed in chemotherapy/tamoxifen-treated, estrogen receptor (ER) –positive, node-positive National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project B-28 patients and tamoxifen-treated, ER-positive, node-negative B-14 patients. The association of the RS with risk of distant recurrence (DR) 0 to 5 years and those at risk > 5 years was assessed. An ESR1 expression cut point was optimized in B-28 and tested in B-14. Results Median follow-up was 11.2 years for B-28 and 13.9 years for B-14. Of 1,065 B-28 patients, 36% had low (< 18), 34% intermediate (18 to 30), and 30% high (≥ 31) RS. Of 668 B-14 patients, 51% had low, 22% intermediate, and 27% high RS. Median ESR1 expression by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction was: B-28, 9.7 normalized expression cycle threshold units (CT) and B-14, 10.7 CT. In B-28, RS was associated with DR 0 to 5 years (log-rank P < .001) and > 5 to 10 years (log-rank P = .02) regardless of ESR1 expression. An ESR1 expression cut point of 9.1 CT was identified in B-28. It was validated in B-14 patients for whom the RS was associated with DR in years 5 to 15: 6.8% (95% CI, 4.4% to 10.6%) versus 11.2% (95% CI, 6.2% to 19.9%) versus 16.4% (95% CI, 10.2% to 25.7%) for RS < 18, RS 18 to 30, and RS ≥ 31, respectively (log-rank P = .01). Conclusion For LDR, RS is strongly prognostic in patients with higher quantitative ESR1. Risk of LDR is relatively low for patients with low RS. These results suggest the value of extended tamoxifen therapy merits evaluation in patients with intermediate and high RS with higher ESR1 expression at initial diagnosis.