scholarly journals Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1580
Author(s):  
Jürgen Kopfmüller ◽  
Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle ◽  
Tobias Naegler ◽  
Jens Buchgeister ◽  
Klaus-Rainer Bräutigam ◽  
...  

Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-technical characteristics of energy systems in scenario design, and, second, a method to apply an accordingly enhanced set of indicators in scenario assessment. In this article, an integrative scenario assessment methodology is introduced that combines these two requirements. It consists of: (i) A model-based scenario analysis using techno-economic and ecological indicators; (ii) a non-model-based analysis using socio-technical indicators; (iii) an assessment of scenario performances with respect to pre-determined indicator targets; (iv) a normalization method to make the two types of results (model-based and non-model-based) comparable; (v) an approach to classify results to facilitate structured interpretation. The combination of these elements represents the added-value of this methodology. It is illustrated for selected indicators, and exemplary results are presented. Methodological challenges and remaining questions, e.g., regarding the analysis of non-model-based indicators, resource requirements, or the robustness of the methodology are pointed out and discussed. We consider this integrative methodology being a substantial improvement of previous scenario assessment methodologies.

Author(s):  
Luigi Bottecchia ◽  
Pietro Lubello ◽  
Pietro Zambelli ◽  
Carlo Carcasci ◽  
Lukas Kranzl

Energy system modelling is an essential practice to assist a set of heterogeneous stakeholders in the process of defining an effective and efficient energy transition. From the analysis of a set of open source energy system models, it has emerged that most models employ an approach directed at finding the optimal solution for a given set of constraints. On the contrary, a simulation model is a representation of a system that is used to reproduce and understand its behaviour under given conditions, without seeking an optimal solution. Given the lack of simulation models that are also fully open source, in this paper a new open source energy system model is presented. The developed tool, called Multi Energy Systems Simulator (MESS), is a modular, multi-node model that allows to investigate non optimal solutions by simulating the energy system. The model has been built having in mind urban level analyses. However, each node can represent larger regions allowing wider spatial scales to be be represented as well. MESS is capable of performing analysis on systems composed by multiple energy carriers (e.g. electricity, heat, fuels). In this work, the tool’s features will be presented by a comparison between MESS itself and an optimization model, in order to analyze and highlight the differences between the two approaches, the potentialities of a simulation tool and possible areas for further development.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 5724
Author(s):  
Luigi Bottecchia ◽  
Pietro Lubello ◽  
Pietro Zambelli ◽  
Carlo Carcasci ◽  
Lukas Kranzl

Energy system modelling is an essential practice to assist a set of heterogeneous stakeholders in the process of defining an effective and efficient energy transition. From the analysis of a set of open-source energy system models, it emerged that most models employ an approach directed at finding the optimal solution for a given set of constraints. On the contrary, a simulation model is a representation of a system used to reproduce and understand its behaviour under given conditions without seeking an optimal solution. In this paper, a new open-source energy system model is presented. Multi Energy Systems Simulator (MESS) is a modular, multi-energy carrier, multi-node model that allows the investigation of non optimal solutions by simulating an energy system. The model was built for urban level analyses. However, each node can represent larger regions allowing wider spatial scales to be represented as well. In this work, the tool’s features are presented through a comparison between MESS and Calliope, a state of the art optimization model, to analyse and highlight the differences between the two approaches, the potentialities of a simulation tool and possible areas for further development. The two models produced coherent results, showing differences that were tracked down to the different approaches. Based on the comparison conducted, general conclusions were drawn on the potential of simulating energy systems in terms of a more realistic description of smaller energy systems, lower computational times and increased opportunity for participatory processes in planning urban energy systems.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Sofia Lewis Lopes ◽  
Elizabeth Duarte ◽  
Rita Fragoso

The exponential population growth will put great pressure on natural resources, agriculture, energy systems and waste production. New business models and innovative technological approaches are necessary to tackle these challenges and achieve the energy transition targets set by the European Commission. Renewable energy technologies and processes such as solar photovoltaic, solar thermal and anaerobic co-digestion have become a subject of interest and research as a solution that could be fully implemented in industries and solve several environmental and economic problems. This paper discusses the possibility of integrating and complement these technologies to maximize renewable energy production and circularity. The review was performed with a funnel approach aiming to analyze broad to specific subjects. Beginning with a literature review on the various definitions of circular economy, bioeconomy, and circular bioeconomy, ultimately proposing a single definition according to an industrial and academic scope combination, followed by a systematization and assessment of data and literature regarding energy systems present state and projections. The next phase was to assess data and literature of the fruit and vegetable processing industry from an energy consumption and biowaste production perspective to consequently discussing technologies that could help manage problems identified throughout this review. This paper culminates in propounding an Integrated Renewable Energy System conceptual model that promotes energy and waste circularity, envisioning how industries could be designed or redesigned in the future, coupled with a circular bioeconomy business model.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 59-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wang Zhongying ◽  
Kaare Sandholt

Abstract China’s strong economic growth over the past 40 years has been followed by similar strong growth in energy consumption, based on coal. A continuation of this development is not sustainable, and China has set new ambitious targets for future energy systems development, which in reality calls for a genuine energy revolution in order to build a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy system towards 2035 and 2050. This paper looks at the mechanisms behind the energy transition, analysis of a concrete case for a sustainable energy system in 2050, and points to policy measures and instruments to ensure the necessary progress in this energy transition. The case shows that it is possible for China in 2050 to reduce CO2 emission to one-third of today’s emission while at the same time maintaining economic growth, improving security of supply, air quality, and economic efficiency of the power system.


2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Karlo Hainsch ◽  
Thorsten Burandt ◽  
Konstantin Löffler ◽  
Claudia Kemfert ◽  
Pao-Yu Oei ◽  
...  

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panagiotis Fragkos ◽  
Nikos Kouvaritakis ◽  
Pantelis Capros

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 6107
Author(s):  
Kim Maya Yavor ◽  
Vanessa Bach ◽  
Matthias Finkbeiner

The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by the energy transition may lead to trade-offs with other impacts on the environment, society, and economy. One challenge is resource use impacts due to increasing demand for high-tech metals and minerals. A review of the current state of the art resource assessment of energy systems was conducted to identify gaps in research and application. Publications covering complete energy systems and supplying a detailed resource assessment were the focus of the evaluation. Overall, 92 publications were identified and categorized by the type of system covered and the applied abiotic resource assessment methods. A total of 78 out of 92 publications covered sub-systems of renewable energy systems, and nine considered complete energy systems and conducted a detailed resource use assessment. Most of the publications in the group “complete energy system and detailed resource assessment” were found in grey literature. Several different aspects were covered to assess resource use. Thirty publications focused on similar aspects including criticality and supply risks, but technology-specific aspects are rarely assessed in the resource assessment of renewable energy systems. Few publications included sector coupling technologies, and among the publications most relevant to the aim of this paper one third did not conduct an indicator-driven assessment.


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