A Machine Learning Approach to Predict Groundwater Levels in California Reveals Ecosystems at Risk

Groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) are increasingly threatened worldwide, but the shallow groundwater resources that they are reliant upon are seldom monitored. In this study, we used satellite-based remote sensing to predict groundwater levels under groundwater dependent ecosystems across California, USA. Depth to groundwater was modelled for a 35-years period (1985–2019) within all groundwater dependent ecosystems across the state (n = 95,135). Our model was developed within Google Earth Engine using Landsat satellite imagery, climate data, and field-based groundwater data [n = 627 shallow (< 30 m) monitoring wells] as predictors in a Random Forest model. Our findings show that 1) 44% of groundwater dependent ecosystems have experienced a significant long-term (1985–2019) decline in groundwater levels compared to 28% with a significant increase; 2) groundwater level declines have intensified during the most recent two decades, with 39% of groundwater dependent ecosystems experiencing declines in the 2003–2019 period compared to 27% in the 1985–2002 period; and 3) groundwater declines are most prevalent within GDEs existing in areas of the state where sustainable groundwater management is absent. Our results indicate that declining shallow groundwater levels may be adversely impacting California’s groundwater dependent ecosystems. Particularly where groundwater levels have fallen beneath plant roots or streams thereby affecting key life processes, such as forest recruitment/succession, or hydrological processes, such as streamflow that affects aquatic habitat. In the absence of groundwater monitoring well data, our model and findings can be used to help state and local water agencies fill in data gaps of shallow groundwater conditions, evaluate potential effects on GDEs, and improve sustainable groundwater management policy in California.

Nitrate vulnerability of karst aquifers and associated groundwater-dependent ecosystems in the Baltic region

Groundwater pollution by agrochemicals such as nitrogen fertilizers can cause complex biogeochemical transformations to take place in groundwater-dependent ecosystems. To explore the interaction between nitrogen load and groundwater-dependent, spring-fed ecosystems, a study was conducted in Latvia in an area of suspected high nitrate (NO3−) vulnerability due to its geological settings. A map of NO3− vulnerability along the margins of the carbonate aquifer in Latvia is presented. The map is based on a conceptual model that was developed during an extensive case study involving hydrological, hydrochemical, and habitat investigation of springs discharging from a karst aquifer and spring-fed ecosystems. Areas that should be prime targets for restricting fertilizer application are highlighted on the map. Although the case study revealed increased nitrogen pollution (up to 51 mg L−1, standard deviation of 9 mg L−1, in the springs discharging from the karst aquifer), no clear evidence of adverse effects due to NO3− pollution on the groundwater-dependent ecosystems using biotic indicators was found, highlighting the resilience of spring-fed ecosystems against high nitrogen inputs. In the case study, downstream groundwater-dependent ecosystems retained 70% of the reactive nitrogen during the vegetation season, but only a small proportion during the cold season. Thus, NO3− pollution can be partly mitigated by restoring wetlands along valley slopes where natural groundwater discharge takes place. The conceptual model developed for groundwater NO3− vulnerability is applicable to other areas in the Baltic region and other places with similar climatic and geological conditions.

Development of Riparian and Groundwater-Dependent Ecosystem Assessments for National Forests in the Western U.S.

In 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture adopted a new planning rule that outlined a process for developing, amending, and revising land management plans for the 155 National Forests, 20 National Grasslands, and one Tallgrass Prairie managed by the U.S. Forest Service. The rule outlines a framework with three phases: assessment, development/amendment/revision, and monitoring. We are assisting National Forests in the western U.S. with the first phase by completing a series of assessments of riparian and groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Here, we describe our methods and the lessons learned over the course of conducting assessments for seven National Forests. Per the requirements of the planning rule, we conduct a rapid assessment of ecological integrity that uses existing data to evaluate drivers, stressors, structure, function, composition, and connectivity. We have collaborated with National Forests, state agencies, and other research groups to obtain datasets representing various wetland landscape features. Our work supports the plan revision process, from assessment through plan approval, and informs future forest and project planning for the restoration and maintenance of structure, function, composition, and connectivity. We developed our assessment methods in collaboration with resource managers at the National Forest and regional level to ensure useful end products such as published technical reports, literature reviews, photo libraries, or collections of datasets related to riparian and groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Our approach and lessons learned throughout the process are relevant to other resource management planning applications, analyses of landscape condition, as well as assessments of other ecosystems, such as forests or grasslands.

A European map of groundwater pH and calcium

Water resources and associated ecosystems are becoming highly endangered due to ongoing global environmental changes. Spatial ecological modelling is a promising toolbox for understanding the past, present and future distribution and diversity patterns in groundwater-dependent ecosystems, such as fens, springs, streams, reed beds or wet grasslands. Still, the lack of detailed water chemistry maps prevents the use of reasonable models to be applied on continental and global scales. Being major determinants of biological composition and diversity of groundwater-dependent ecosystems, groundwater pH and calcium are of utmost importance. Here we developed an up-to-date European map of groundwater pH and Ca, based on 7577 measurements of near-surface groundwater pH and calcium distributed across Europe. In comparison to the existing European groundwater maps, we included several times more sites, especially in the regions rich in spring and fen habitats, and filled the apparent gaps in eastern and southeastern Europe. We used random forest models and regression kriging to create continuous maps of water pH and calcium at the continental scale, which is freely available also as a raster map (Hájek et al., 2020b; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4139912). Lithology had a higher importance than climate for both pH and calcium. The previously recognised latitudinal and altitudinal gradients were rediscovered with much refined regional patterns, as associated with bedrock variation. For ecological models of distribution and diversity of many terrestrial ecosystems, our new map based on field groundwater measurements is more suitable than maps of soil pH, which mirror not only bedrock chemistry but also vegetation-dependent soil processes.

Joint actions for more efficient management of common groundwater resources in Estonia and Latvia

<p>European water policy requires to carry out nine tests for characterisation of groundwater bodies status, including the development of joint transboundary groundwater management principles. </p><p>Gauja/Koiva and Salaca/Salatsi Rivers have a joint, Estonian/Latvian transboundary water cycle, including the groundwater recharge and discharge cycling. Despite the fact that groundwater is the only drinking water source in Gauja/Koiva and Salaca/Salatsi River basins and ensures the existence of many groundwater dependent ecosystems, the overall awareness of integrated cross-border management practice is still poorly understood and poorly linked in implementation of concrete groundwater protection actions. </p><p>Taking into account the above-mentioned aspects, Latvian and Estonian groundwater and groundwater dependent ecosystems specialists from research, nature protection and groundwater resources management institutions have joined forces in the project funded by the Interreg Estonia-Latvia program: "Joint actions for more efficient management of common groundwater resources in Estonia and Latvia "(WaterAct).</p><p>The ongoing Est-Lat project “WaterAct” (2020–2022) of joint transboundary groundwater management project organised into the three activity blocks: (1) The capacity building of the joint groundwater transboundary management through exchange of knowledge and best management practices between project partners and key experts in other European Union countries; (2) Assessment of groundwater resources in transboundary River basins to improve groundwater management in accordance with valid international directives; (3) Dissemination and outreach activities to increase the overall awareness of ecosystems friendly groundwater management and protection of key actors working with groundwater assessments and locals. </p><p>Firstly, the joint cross-boundary principles of identification and status assessment of shared groundwater bodies will be developed. Adaptation of existing knowledge, cross-boundary harmonization and development of needed methodologies will be used. </p><p>Secondly, the joint cross-boundary assessment principles will be implemented into groundwater resources management. The status assessment of shared groundwater bodies will be carried out in close cooperation between project partners to create materials necessary for the development of last River Basin Management Plans (2022-2027), required by the Water Framework Directive and Groundwater Directive.</p><p>Thirdly, the dissemination of project results will be carried out (1) by compilation of Guidelines of Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems for different levels and fields of decision making and experts, (2) by compilation of Spring Water Monitoring Guide for Volunteers and starting volunteer monitoring. For volunteer monitoring, a special web-based map application will be developed (allikad.info). </p><p> </p><p>The project of “Joint actions for more efficient management of common groundwater resources” (WaterAct, Est-Lat155) funded by ERDF Interreg Estonia-Latvia cooperation programme.</p>