Predicting drowning from sea and weather forecasts: development and validation of a model on surf beaches of southwestern France

ObjectiveTo predict the coast-wide risk of drowning along the surf beaches of Gironde, southwestern France.MethodsData on rescues and drownings were collected from the Medical Emergency Center of Gironde (SAMU 33). Seasonality, holidays, weekends, weather and metocean conditions were considered potentially predictive. Logistic regression models were fitted with data from 2011 to 2013 and used to predict 2015–2017 events employing weather and ocean forecasts.ResultsAir temperature, wave parameters, seasonality and holidays were associated with drownings. Prospective validation was performed on 617 days, covering 232 events (rescues and drownings) reported on 104 different days. The area under the curve (AUC) of the daily risk prediction model (combined with 3-day forecasts) was 0.82 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.86). The AUC of the 3-hour step model was 0.85 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.88).ConclusionsDrowning events along the Gironde surf coast can be anticipated up to 3 days in advance. Preventative messages and rescue preparations could be increased as the forecast risk increased, especially during the off-peak season, when the number of available rescuers is low.

Определение частотной зависимости комплексной теплопроводности тонких полимерных пленок

A method has been developed for the experimental determination of the components of the complex thermal conductivity of thin polymer films. The method is based on measuring the temperature difference on both surfaces of a film in which a periodic temperature wave is excited. Formulas are obtained that relate the observed temperatures to the mentioned components. Using the proposed method at a temperature of 293K in the frequency range (0.01÷0.25) Hz, the frequency dependences of the complex thermal conductivity for cellulose films (thickness 150 um), fluoroplastic (600 um) and polypropylene (600 um) were obtained.

Temperature wave-like oscillations on ultra-short and ultra-fast time scales -INVITED

Recent findings in the frame of temperature wave-like oscillations on the ultra-short, ultra-fast time scales in solid states devices are here reviewed. The possibility for wave-like temperature oscillations are investigated at the light of the pass-band characteristic in w-k space for the temperature scalar field. The bandpass filter characteristics are accessed in terms of the heat carriers scattering times. The concepts here reviewed are of interest for perspective design of novel thermal nano-devices.

ANALISIS KELAYAKAN LOKASI BUDIDAYA METODE KARAMBA JARING APUNG DI PERAIRAN DESA PULAU HARAPAN SINJAI

Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis tingkat kesesuaian perairan berdasarkan data parameter ekosistem perairan, mengetahui lokasi yang cocok untuk dikembangkan budidaya ikan kerapu dengan sistem karamba jaring apung yang berkelanjutan berdasarkan data parameter perairan yang meliputi kedalaman, kecerahan, kecepatan arus, salinitas, suhu, tinggi gelombang, derajat keasaman (pH) dan oksigen terlarut dianalisis berdasarkan posisi koordinatnya. Hasil yang didapatkan Pada kelas S1, kawasannya mencakup area seluas ± 467.898,82 m2 atau sebesar 26,47 % dari total kawasan yang menjadi area studi. Kelas S2 mencakup area seluas ± 725.217,09 m2 atau sebesar 41,03 % dari luas kawasan yang menjadi area studi dari luas total perairan dan kelas S3, kawasannya mencakup area seluas ± 574.609,54 m2 atau sebesar 32,51 % dari total kawasan yang menjadi area studi. This study aims to analyze the suitability of water based on water ecosystem parameter data, find out suitable locations for grouper aquaculture development with a sustainable floating net karamba system based on water parameter data which includes depth, brightness, current speed, salinity, temperature, wave height, degree of acidity (pH) and dissolved oxygen are analyzed based on the position of the coordinates. The results obtained in the S1 class, the area covers an area of ??± 467,898.82 m2 or as much as 26.47% of the total area of ??study area. Class S2 covers an area of ??± 725,217.09 m2 or 41.03% of the area of ??the study area of ??the total area of ??waters and class S3, the area covers an area of ??± 574,609.54 m2 or 32.51% of the total area be a study area.

New regimes of dispersion in microfluidics as mediated by travelling temperature waves

We unveil new regimes of dispersion in miniaturized fluidic devices, by considering fluid flow triggered by a travelling temperature wave. When a temperature wave travels along a channel wall, it alters the density and viscosity of the adjacent fluid periodically. Successive expansion–contraction of the fluid volume through a spatio-temporally evolving viscosity field generates a net fluidic current. Based on the temporal evolution of the axial dispersion coefficient, new regimes of dispersion—such as a short-time ‘oscillating regime’ and a large-time ‘stable regime’—have been identified, which are absent in traditionally addressed flows through miniaturized fluidic devices. Our analysis reveals that the oscillation of axial dispersion persists until the variance of species concentration becomes equal to half of the square of the wavelength of the thermal wave. The time period of oscillation in the dispersion coefficient turns out to be a unique function of the thermal wavelength and net flow velocity induced by thermoviscous pumping. The results of this study are likely to contribute towards the improvement of microscale systems that are subjected to periodic temperature variations, including microreactors and DNA amplification devices.

Predicting drowning from sea and weather forecasts: development and validation of a model on surf beaches of southwestern France

ObjectiveTo predict the risk of drowning along the surf beaches of Gironde, southwestern France.MethodsData on rescues and drownings were collected from the Medical Emergency Center of Gironde (SAMU 33). Seasonality, holidays, weekends, weather, and sea conditions were considered potentially predictive. Logistic regression models were fitted with data from 2011–2013 and used to predict 2015–2017 events employing weather and ocean forecasts.ResultsAir temperature, wave parameters, seasonality, and holidays were associated with drownings. Prospective validation was performed on 617 days, covering 232 events (rescues and drownings) reported on 104 different days. The area under the curve (AUC) of the daily risk prediction model (combined with 3-day forecasts) was 0.82 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.79−0.86]. The AUC of the 3-hour step model was 0.85 (95% CI 0.81−0.88).ConclusionsDrowning events along the Gironde surf coast can be anticipated up to 3 days in advance.Preventative messages and rescue preparations could be increased as the forecast risk increased, especially during the off-peak season, when the number of available rescuers is low.